Comments by "Andre Falksmen" (@andrefalksmen1264) on "Asianometry"
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@alanhonlunli yeah, no. No one is hardwired into the US dollar system because of inelastic demand. It's simple that, it is a legacy of the Bretton Woods system. It continues to carry weight because commodity producers, most importantly the oil producers of the Middle East continue to sell their commodities for us dollars. Secondarily, and you can argue even more critically, China who is the world's largest exporting nation, continues to sell its exports for us dollars. The system was already stretched with China piling up mountains of US dollars as Reserves and looking to buy assets all around the world to reduce the dollar pile, as an economy the size of China and one which is the primary trading Nation cannot avoid the world of the reserve currency for long. Secondarily, as the primary consumer of Natural Resources in the world has become china, and China is already there largest trading partner, it makes only sense that they should ditch dollars and use Chinese yuan. So America if it's lucky may have another 10 years as a reserve currency whatsoever, but it's fate is pretty much the same as the British pound after the end of the Sterling block. Again, it seems as if armchair pontificators have not bothered to do any research on how global banking and trade actually functions.
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@HyzersGR lol. Clearly you have not been paying attention, too many YouTube videos? The alternative Swift system is already forming, Russia has already connected its banking system to China's union pay, and there is already direct lending of Yuan by Russian banks. We have even seen hostile countries to china, like india, purchase Commodities from Russia and Chinese yuan. However, at the end of the day countries just want to be able to freely trade and an alternative to swift, with the US dollar and American extra territorial jurisdiction, offers that. This is all aside from the deciding factor that, China is the world's largest trading nation, the largest trading partner for most nations in the world, and therefore there is already an ecosystem of Yuan Surplus and Yuan deficit countries that can settle their current accounts in Chinese Yuan without skipping a Beat.
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@HyzersGR lol. Your low level of understanding of basic economics is hilarious. What percentage of China's GDP is exports? Not gross exports, net exports, the answer is 2%! I know westerners like to think that the Chinese live to manufacture things for them and cannot survive but for the west, but in reality China exports to pay for the commodity Imports it needs for its industrial base which is to supply domestic consumption and investment!
Not to mention, the Chinese Yuan has performed quite favorably against most of the G7 currencies as of late, and as a reserve currency would perform even better given that it no longer needs to position itself vis-a-va Reserve currency.
As for manufacturing leaving china, okay much over hyped. That is low level manufacturing that is going to places like vietnam, and Vietnam doesn't even have the infrastructure to absorb the factories leaving china.
Lastly, remember I said the words NET exports, not gross exports. I know you have a comprehension problem. What most people tend to mention is gross exports, or gross imports. While those measures can be helpful to identify things like supply chain integration, they are not useful in understanding the dependency of a country on trade.
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@skyisreallyhigh3333 I see your understanding of Economics is not even basic. Your argument is that technology has made everyone more productive, well that's a hard argument to make because in every sector you have to show that technology has been employed to make workers more efficient, that is clearly not the case. When we look at the industrial sector we would measure productivity, by the dollar value of units of production per worker per hour. However, that can be highly misleading, when we start looking carefully at the American industrial sector by units of production produce per worker per hour, setting aside the bloated prices government and government contractors are prepared to pay for made in America industrial products, we see no productivity increases since the 1960s. Sure, there have been productivity increases in the mining sector, although there is significantly less mining, and we would see the same thing in the financial sector, information technology, and other things of that sort. However, when we look into the service sector, large parts of the secondary economy like logistics, Warehouse services, and government bureaucracy we see no increase in productivity why, Baumol's cost disease, look it up.
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@xhy12 I may not be an expert on Semiconductor production, but I do have a PhD in economics and have an exceptional knowledge of international trade flows.
However, when you start with such nonsense like " distract from internal instability" I already know that you're an ignorant jingoist and have no understanding of the economic Dynamics at play divorce from your wishful thinking to maintain Western supremacy.
If China takes taiwan, there is no way to replace those Fabs in the short term, or even the medium term. In the short term the Chinese will not find it difficult, much like the South koreans, but much faster as a matter of national Prestige and with much greater access to capital, to replace the key materials needed to support the fabrication facilities. Nor will the vast majority of ethnically Han Mandarin speaking Chinese be opposed to Mainland control of taiwan. Not to mention that every non-western nation has incentive to get on with dealing with a Chinese control Taiwan and maintain the access to semiconductors for their own purposes, not wishing to sacrifice themselves on the mantle of Western supremacy.
Again you can keep thinking to yourself that China is going to fail, that the Chinese are on the brink of disaster, maybe you should go read some Gordon chang, and soothe yourself at night, that's not going to happen. At the end of the day, the Chinese population is larger than the entire Western world combined and continues to save and invest, the sure size of its internal market and focus investment will allow its Supremacy in the semiconductor industry within the next 10 years.
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@Moped_Mike no, China blows America out of the water, and every other Western Country on a per capita basis, only on per Capital GDP in nominal terms does the United States run supreme. Also, when you correct the US numbers for units of production, rather than using dollar figures, over inflated US Government procurement prices, we see that the situation for the US is even worse. But at the end of the day all you have to do is consider that us net, not gross, imports, are higher than it's Total Industrial out.
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@ruedelta there's quite a bit unpack there. First off a nation of over a billion people is not going to be a service economy, at least not one that is first world.
Secondly, climate change has not been all bad for all the peoples at the equator, at least in the case of Africa it is actually led to more mild temperatures and increasing regreening of desert spaces. As well as an unexplained regrowth of trees in Savannah areas.
The Dynamics of a developed Indonesia would be quite unique, something that has never been seen before because Indonesia would not be a raw commodity importer, it has all the Commodities necessary for an industrial base within its own borders. Such a situation has only been seen in the case of the Soviet union, a nation having both an industrial base and the resources to support industry within their own borders. However, the major difference between the Soviet Union and it developed Indonesia would be, presumably, Indonesia would be a market-oriented economy. Again, there are a number of nations in the world which have all of the resources necessary to support industrial development, none aside from the Soviet union, have put aside the natural resource curse to take the funds and climb the value added ladder.
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@Curt_Sampson I'm not looking to have a debate with you about the merits of the war in ukraine. Russia acted reasonably given the danger it faced. A NATO aligned Ukraine could never be allowed on Russia's doorstep. To allow NATO in Ukraine would be to have NATO troops and arms on Russia's doorstep, which would mean NATO nuclear weapons too close to Russia for an early warning system to work, forcing Russia to make blind threat assessments, essentially creating a potential second Cuban Missile Crisis situation.
Putin did not bomb mariopol to the ground, to the contrary, he ordered his troops to surround the azov steelworks and force the Neo-Nazi soldiers based there to surrender, only using bombs on the last few remaining fighters. Again, contrast Putin's actions in Ukraine to America's actions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Americans bombed every piece of infrastructure, every military command center, and the civilian population Centers before they sent one ground troop into combat.
Putin believes that the ukrainians are his people, fellow Orthodox Christian slavs, and so he is not prepared to take such actions against them. However, once again Ukraine exist at Russia's pleasure, if tomorrow Putin grows tired of this nonsense and decides to launch non-nuclear ICBM missiles, 2,000 of them which Russia has more than enough, there will not be a Ukraine left to fight.
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@Curt_Sampson the continued Eastward expansion of NATO has been a source of contention with the Russians since the mid 1990s. Even because Gorbachev stated that Russia has been treated with disrespect and that the West continues to provoke russia. Secondly, according to both let me call Gorbachev and James baker, the United States promised Russia there would be no Eastern expansion of nato, a promise that Bill Clinton broke. While Baltic countries are members of nato, there are no strategic weapons stationed there, for the exact reason why Ukraine cannot be a member of nato. This could all have been avoided if the United States had acted in a restrained manner, but they have been threatening Russian security since the end of the cold war, and have been attempting to collapse the Russian State since it's revitalization under putin. The long-term plan is to neutralize Russia as a threat, and this is only caused a Resurgence of the Russian state. The West said hope to arrest its decline by paralyzing the Russian State and helping it would become as weaken as dysfunctional as ukraine, in the end this was all to contain china, instead they have driven Russia into China's arms, and the two together will devour the West.
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@Curt_Sampson lol. Europe is economically bleeding trying to support latest position on ukraine. Winter is coming, and Europeans will go cold, hungry, and unemployed. How long do you think Europe can last with 20% inflation and 600% increases and energy cost? I hope you don't believe in a fantasy of an alternative energy supplier to russia. Let me help you understand that compressed natural gas, like the kind that comes from russia, even before the crisis was six four to six times cheaper than l&g. Not to mention LNG requires specialized facilities on both the shipping and receiving end, as well as specialized ships to transport it. Any other line coming from the East would have to cross turkey, which has its own issues with regard to europe. Anything from africa, well that would require European to stop destabilizing africa. There is no alternative to Russian energy for europe, and therefore Russia can strangle the Earth, as it is. However, the Real Salt in the wound is the Chinese prepare to purchase all of the gas Europe was buying and more, at a lower discount to market!
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No. The entire Scandinavian model simply the welfare state. Individuals simply become leeches on the society, no self-worth, no contribution, and no assets. A model for equality is about giving individuals the ability to achieve, not making their outcome equal whether or not they do a chief. A society which pays garbage collectors the same as surgeons is a society which is headed for catastrophe, especially if there's no external source of plunder or Revenue to cover the loss of performance from people not being rewarded for their extra work. In the case of Scandinavia, the export of Natural Resources is largely the methodology of covering this Gap.
While opportunity will not solve all problems, as their issues that individual May face with support from his family unit that the state cannot overcome, it is the best way to see equality in a society. Although no one wants to talk about it, for all the so-called inclusion and diversity measures in the western world for invisible ethnic minorities these are little more than window dressing. A qualified minority, whatever his Merit, we'll have less opportunity than a member of the majority society as opportunities are first and foremost about the perception of the person and their fit for the organization, for which a member of the majority will be seen as a better candidate always.
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