Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. The US is the only country on earth that has the capacity to perform large scale military movements on a global scale. And is the only country that has a military that is set up to perform in multiple theatres of war. Right now the US military is much larger and more capable than it was before WW2. Imagine what it would be like if WW3 was to break out.
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  2. She is not a fascist and that is a common mistake. She may end up a terrible PM but that is a different issue. She is an Italian conservatives which is based around the religion of catholicism. It may not be easily understood by those outside of Italy.
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  3. She is an Italian conservative. There is this myth that her political parties have been fascist when in fact they were founded to oppose fascism.
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  4. US industrial might is about to become very clear to the world. Most people people to date do not understand the scale and output of US industry. Now watch those attack my comment on a US communications system.
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  5. The US currency is amazingly managed. It has been used to try and build peace at the global stage but that can only be done with an economy at the scale and depth of the US economy. The US has thousands of trillions of assets in value and can easily dig that deep. The main problem the US has is that it cannot easily create enough currency to fill in the voids when it occurs hence why free money is not available when needed and QE is required.
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  6. Russia logistics at the start of the war was really bad cannot imagine what sort of condition it is in now.
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  7. Taiwan and Japans missile defence systems will make that area of the seas very difficult to control but it will also make it so that China will be hemmed in and unable to projector power.
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  8. It will reduce inflation in the long term when US manufacturing reshores key industries.
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  9. They still need to be partnered with the US to realize that potential that they have.
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  10.  @zootsoot2006  Some of them may not know any different.
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  11. In the modern era trump would be the best and Obama the worse when it comes to policy. When it comes to decency Obama is probably considered one of the best and Trump the worse. Trump could have been a good president if he did not play his political character so harshly and Obama could have been a good president if he engaged more with administrative policy. But then again what would we expect from a reality TV star and an academic senator.
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  12. All that fancy european technology is based on US patents, US engineering and US science. Hard for many europeans to understand all of that. I bet you though ASML was based purely on European technology but all their technology and instrumentation is based on US industry.
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  13. Drones are only as good as the operators and the forces that employ them on the battlefield. There is a steep learning curve on just the actual operation of the drones never mind the tactical capabilities of such forces.
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  14. If things continue as they are China and Russia are not going to be in any sort of state to projector war. As it stands China can put up a good defence of its coastal waters but even that is starting to get strained.
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  15. Austrian economics does make good arguments but it also has made people over sensitive to the fact that dirt happens. Recessions are going to happen no matter who manages the system. The idea that there is some Austrian economic model of free market that will completely eliminate inflation or recession is a very simplistic outlook.
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  16. US productivity has been so good that Europeans and Japanese have not needed to have children to keep up output. Same thing for Canada in that it has focused on using US industry to make up for its declining outputs.
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  17. Russia through its worst forces and best elite forces at Ukraine. This time they will be throwing large volumes of its worst forces but at scales not seen since WW2.
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  18. As it plays out Turkey is not going to block Sweden. If Turkey was to try and block them they will find that they will be isolated. Turkey is not there in terms of being an independent region as of yet and needs help getting their and time.
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  19. Russian energy is too far away from China to be of use in terms of the scale of Chinese population. China is not a producer of high technology and most of what it produces is products that are branded by western companies. Both countries have little to offer one other and have always been adversaries. One thing history demonstrates is that tyrannical cultures that are near to one other always at some point have a fall out. The danger of nuclear exchange is higher between China and Russia is greater than it is east vs west.
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  20. Unfortunately there is going to be a cadre of companies that have invested too much into Asian manufacturing to be able to return and what will happen to them is that competitors that do have plants in the US will outcompete them.
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  21. It is pure fantasy.
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  22. The US is not using QE for government spending. They are using it because the US dollar is in such high demand. The dollar at the currency level is subjected to supply and demand like everything else. Everybody wants the dollar and it puts pressure on the system to have it available when needed. Most of the QE was about feeding reserves rather than about spending.
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  23. Same thing in Europe at present. Most of the world is like that barring America (whose minor problems do not compare). Truth be told there is nothing the UK could do right now and anything they could do should have happened 20 years ago. Moving UK industry offshore was always going to make the options for dealing with this limited.
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  24. Icelandic industry is not saleable. Iceland does not have the population to be able to build that base nor does it have the petrochemicals to make up for that level of loss. If European demand collapses there is not going to be a market for Icelandic steel.
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  25. The interstate network is fine for time critical small scale deliveries but it would never able to compete on a per cost bases with large bulk transport of waterways. A series of barges can transports many orders of magnitude of load for a fraction of the cost of a road system. The road system also helps to fill in the gaps of the water and rail system but it in no way has caused the water ways to be reduced in their operations. What has really happened is that productivity has increased at a national level but the water ways simply have not been utilized if they were the cost of US goods would dramatically reduce.
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  26. None of the OPEC countries are really stable economic engines. That means they will not have he military tools to actually go out into the world and force their will. Saudi Arabia as a military force is based entirely on US technological systems. What many do not understand is in the middle East Saudi Arabia and Israel are going to be a partnership where the Israelis are going to be the senior partner to that. But all goes back to the US. SO while Saudi Arabia can play politics with certain US presidents in the long run they will still be under that umbrella.
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  27.  @thomasherrin6798  The US spends about 3 trillion per year on its welfare state and it has done that so as to lessen the effects of outsourcing from US manufacturing. A good proportion of that manufacturing is going to be returning to those traditional areas of manufacturing in the US which is going to lessen the need for a welfare state. The US military budget is not just about fielding a sizeable military force it is about a force that has far more firepower than anybody else out there. The US will still have a global presence but it will be in context of its own interests which is going to be the similar position the US had before WW2.
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  28. I think a lot of people are also confused by the term 5nm features and assume that means the whole transistor is 5nm when it is only a small area of the transistor structure that is 5nm. In reality transistors are 100 times larger than their claimed architecture. There is a lot more room at the bottom before Moore's law hits a wall. Architecture such as what you are referring to will become more innovative as time goes on and all that innovation is US centred.
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  29. They probably do have nuclear weapons that are maintained and do work but not enough to go for full intercontinental exchange. They could fire and maybe hit the US but not have anywhere near enough to immobilize the US who in turn will have enough weapons to fire back.
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  30. There is an extraordinary amount of resources on earth. The idea that it can just be exhausted in our grand childrens era is ridiculous. And that by that stage technology will be much more efficient at recycling.
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  31. It is not that they are anomaly it is the fact that crazy policies were put in place with low interest rates. It is like having a sale were gold is 50% the market rate and there is only so long that can continue until the seller realizes that they cannot source any more gold or they run out of funds.
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  32. You are being naive with those statements. The only thing keeping the European project together has been German industrial output. My the time Germany overcomes this issue (no guarantee) they will then be walking into another issue of European demographic collapse.
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  33.  @ffffuchs  Those migrants are not going to make up for a reduced birth rate among the German people. A few million extra migrants of all ages are not going to make up for the fact that Germany has only about 2.5 million under the age of 10 and nearly seven million in their fifties.
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  34. The US still produces the majority of its good in the US.
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  35. Can you explain how an enterprising business person could over come the Jones Act, Unions, democratic party and Republican party?
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  36.  @carloslemos6919  The US is the worlds largest processor of petrochemical products. Most countries would not have industry without those petrochemical products.
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  37. Not just that. People think that Russia is massive which it is but not the populated areas of Russia those are all focused from the west through to the central regions which would mean in a time of nuclear war that whole regions would be attacked and it would wipe out the vast majority in Russia. Nearly all of the 3 million square miles of the US has population spread that is not the case for Russia.
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  38. Many humans have bright ideas but it takes a culture that encourages that through science, technology, business and everyday life. That is America in a nutshell. It is not a perfect place but it is clearly the best place on earth for innovation and culture of success. Tesla went to America as well for the same reasons as did Elon Musk.
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  39.  @NYJGreatness  They probably would not be speaking Russia as the Germans may have carried out mass ethnic cleansing. Hitler was not a fan of the slavs and may have done horrible things there.
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  40. Consumers are not demanding electric that is a myth. Wealthier market buyers are demanding electric vehicles but they are not buying the typical F150 or Malibu. The type of consumer that would buy an EV is somebody that has excess income that they can use to make them self feel good and to virtue signal their goodness.
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  41.  Morgan Allen  That does not make any sense.
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  42.  @obcane3072  It could mean many things such more damage or less damage depending on how the bridge was attacked.
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  43. He is just pointing out the obvious that some people cannot handle.
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  44.  @Targe0  That will work for Australia but not the rest of the world. The issue is storing the energy that has been generated which means batteries that simply have a large footprint than oil or gas.
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  45. Mexico could be about to face a 1980/1990s Colombian style crisis that could threaten the very structure of their state. Their only option is to work with the US and not try and go it alone.
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  46.  @bsmithhammer  Death and destruction can have a way of communicating that nothing else has.
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  47. That is all nonsense.
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  48.  @cameronfreeman8495  Peter Zeihan has been very clear about Australia it is an independent market that can function on its own.
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  49. What you just said was said 25 years ago. The true power of ai at this point is that it aids human productivity but does not replace humans.
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  50. Nuclear power cannot just be switched on. There is also the issue that most of the Uranium supply is Russian based.
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