Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Anybody crossing that now would need to have nerves of steel.
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  2. Any advisor that is there is pure technical and is not a junior officer and would be at a very safe distance.
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  3.  @bsmithhammer  Death and destruction can have a way of communicating that nothing else has.
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  4. For centuries Japan had the most advanced naval force. At both the feudal and post feudal level in Asia. The Japanese navy was capable of going toe to toe with the British throughout the 1800s in Asia but would not have been capable outside of Asia.
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  5.  @GowthamNatarajanAI  US still has a massive industrial base. People have confused cheap plastic products coming from outsourcing to mean that it has replaced industry.
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  6.  @Condor1970  Taiwan specializes in RISC based ARM chips and that is their biggest output. The US is still the world's leader when it comes to producing integrated circuits. Taiwan is putting some of their chip plants in the US for safety reason so that they can still produce them in the event of an invasion.
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  7. The US built that system and it is theirs to use. Each of those countries is free to build their own system but it is not something that can be wished into being and takes a century to build.
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  8. It would be much cheaper for the US to build its own production from scratch using US technology and US industrial know how. Automation is already having a big impact on US metal processing that is only going to keep growing. There is going to be a bottleneck and pressure point that will force the US market to innovate and to build out.
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  9. War is not easy to wage in winter. Movement can be very slow, moral can be very low and exposed troops can die of the elements never mind getting shot at. So while it is true that they can move in the frozen hard ground the complexity levels do increase.
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  10. It is all about Ukraine having their missiles within range of those Russian positions and their artillery.
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  11. The US had limited forces in Korea and were still able to hold a line that we today call Korean Demilitarized Zone. MaCarthur wanted to use the US forces to push up into China and put an end to them but was ordered against it. MacArthur got fired for it because he kept insisting. While horde tactics work against poorly supplied or low numbers of troops they do not work against the US who have a large military and very high levels of fire power.
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  12. Distance matters when it comes to transporting the oil. It is the reason why Russia cannot easily supply China.
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  13. The US economy is extraordinarily deep. The reason why the US government uses QE is that it cannot supply enough money to the system at times.
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  14. That would not be something that he should be doing. He should just comment on geopolitics. He is brilliant at that and that is his lane.
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  15. So you think the French energy generation system could power the whole of German industry? The only way this might work would be if France starts fracking and giving that gas to the German national system of energy generation. This all could have been avoided if a certain German politician did not sell out Germany and then go and sit on the board of Gazprom.
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  16. Immigration does not help natural birth demographics and countries that thing they can do it will find out it does not work. It can help productivity and boost the natural population but will never act as a replacement. The US is not relying on immigration it has a good natural birth rate compared to other developing nations. Not as good as years past but still good.
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  17. It is called a free market. You are free to choose where you go.
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  18. American debt is very misleading because it is not an actual hard debt. About 3 to 5 trillion of that is pure hard external debt. About 7 to 12 trillion is hard internal debt at most. Most US debt is an accounting exercise that includes liabilities such as social security. It also includes banking liabilities through various entities. People act like it is a hard debt with a promissory in place when it is not. The US has thousands of trillions in assets and does not need to borrow to prop up its currency. It took the US from the mid 1850s upto the 2000s to build up all those assets that it can then use as it sees fit.
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  19. He never said it was perfect what he is saying is that certain countries are going to have to make peace and what that really means is make a deal. Make your peace does not necessarily mean it is complete peace.
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  20. Fantasy.
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  21. What an untrustworthy alliance.
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  22. Modern "environmentalism" has nothing to do with the environment.
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  23. Clean energy is a far better approach than renewable. That means using coal, oil, gas, nuclear and renewables. When it is a power station coal can be burned with the large majority of the waste material being captured and even recycled for industrial purposes. Obviously certain energy types are dictated by location making some cheaper and easier to manage than others.
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  24.  @tschandler2  Australia is nothing like Europe. Not even close.
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  25. Obama did not live up to his campaign promises and as such the response was Trump.
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  26. But has German industry in the last 15 years raced ahead because of natural gas?
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  27.  @buginshaorma  There can be completely different reasons between regions. Maybe it is animal feed or the price of antibiotics that causes them. Unless you do a good set of analysis it is guessing.
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  28. I think he maybe a conservative but not a republican. It used to be that both the democratic party and republican party had conservatives in its ranks but that seems to really have declined. Today the parties are either hardcore activist socialists or nationalist focused party members.
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  29. I do not think either side has lost that much men relative to their actual force size. Russia has a problem in that their special operation simply was not enough to do anything.
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  30. The problem with economics is that it is theoretical and not easily applied to the here and now. There are certain universal truths of economic such as supply and demand in the marketplace or structural aspects of currency that hold true.
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  31. China needs that US market place and behind that it also needs the EU market place. There is just no way to replace that.
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  32. China is not in a strong position to extort any European country. Whatever Germany does it is its own making. The problem in Germany and to an extent other countries is its lack of strong national identity.
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  33. Immigration is not going to help China for several reasons. Number one reason is the lack of people world wide to help that immigration is there is simply no place that can supply those people. Issue number two is the fact that China as a culture is insular and does not like immigration. Issue number three is that it is too late for China to be able to use immigration.
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  34. Hydrogen may work for Japan that is producing the hydrogen through electricity that is generated through nuclear. The important word here is may work.
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  35. It is true of all Russian industry.
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  36. Russia has a major problem in that it does not know if its nuclear arsenal is operational. Most of the war heads are based on 50 year old mechanical systems. While they may operational warheads that could be used for one off operations it does not mean they have enough for full nuclear exchange with the US.
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  37. That is a short distance and within a country. Pumping water between different geographical locations and terrain is very complex. Romans used a gravity based system.
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  38. He is not. Twitter will become something different from its current state.
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  39. Apple assembles there products in China and has about $200 of spare cash that it could easily build out production plants. Apple really should have their own chip manufacturing in the US and several other base production capabilities.
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  40. Changes at a certain level but not the overall war at this point.
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  41. Greek Orthodox is different from Easter Orthodox Christianity.
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  42. He is implying that for the ground to dry out and to get troops moving on that ground in a significant manner of battle will take about 8 weeks from this point and then maybe another 4 weeks for us to really grasp the outcome. He is not saying mud up until may and then no mud.
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  43.  @protorhinocerator142  Advanced targeting systems and control systems have allowed even dumb weapons systems to become a lot more accurate. Outside of America nobody else is even close when it comes to the accuracy of control systems.
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  44. The federal reserve does not care about supply side trading and economics because they cannot control that. All they can do is deal with the monetary side of money supply. They have to slow down the rate of money creation and the best way to do that is to increase interest rates slow so that there is a slow down on that side. At this point a recession is the least of the federal reserve's worries and what concerns them the most is runaway inflation that once it starts can be very difficult to stop.
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  45. He needs to do UK and Ireland. Not the major players in the world from a Geopolitics action point of view but they are on the outskirts of Europe and are integrated at some level with the US and EU.
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  46. Warren Buffett did not get out of airlines for the fun of it.
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  47. Nuclear is not the solution that people desire. It has its place but it is complex and also has supply side issues.
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  48. The problem with most of this is that everything is still theoretical. Russia has not get pushed it self to all out war culture. Russia may collapse before it gets to that point of being able to get to total war.
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  49. Absolute nonsense.
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  50. Taiwan is already armed to the teeth and any such delivery will be as a support to that.
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