Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. It may help with aid programs but it will not be enough to off set the eastern food collapse.
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  2. Saudi Arabia has tens of billions of US equipment sitting in storage.
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  3. It is not a pipe dream and will happen but must do so through innovation and research. Governments cannot just implement it through decree it has to be earned. The EU is a culture of decree where governments make pledges that they simply have no right to be making as they do not have the ability nor even the vision to engage in such endeavors.
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  4. The feds cannot be blamed for every business in America. There are thousands of banks in the US and some of them will go under. It is just the natural order of business.
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  5. Poor analogy. He clearly dislikes Bannon but that was not exactly a good comparison.
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  6. Nope that is just fantasy. Inflation ran away in the US because it simply at that stage did not have a fully functioning economy. It was a dependent economic entity of the British Crown meaning it simply was not functioning at its true economic output levels nor did it have any really ability to impose policy at either a currency level or government entity level. These were some of the driving factors of the revolutionary war in it is self. Currency manipulation was not the reason for the inflation.
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  7. I think the whole chat GPT has been way over played. It is the only thing many people keep repeating to demonstrate why the robots are about to take over.
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  8. Nonsense.
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  9. People that talk about the Cartels and claim to be experts in it just romantaise them. They do what 1970s movies and media did to the Mafia. Making them out to be some highly organized system when they were anything but that.
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  10. Black water is going to become a pariah in the US at some point.
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  11. He announced it in the video not hard to spot. He is one of Zeihans analysts.
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  12. Not every country in Europe is a member of NATO.
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  13.  @oliviamaynard9372  Regional neighbours will do it mostly.
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  14. American actions on Japan before WW2 was down to Japan's aggressive moves in Asia. The US had no other option open to them. Japan always intended to try and conquer all of Asia.
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  15. Depends on where their gold ends up.
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  16. I think people are basing Russian performance on todays resource and industry levels but if Russia was to move to a war economy culture they would massively increase their output. They still would not beat NATO in that war but they would cause a lot of damage at a global level.
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  17. You still need people to run automation and you also have to design the business to be able to use automation. The real power of automation at this point and for the foreseeable future is output increases not getting rid of staff.
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  18. Automation is going to develop on through the crisis period but it will not save many countries who simply do not have a good economic or demographic structure. in 20 years time most of what is produced will be automated, most homes will have automation, small local producers will have automation and we will see working humanoid style robots. None of that means that places that are entering a population decline can just magically automate their problems away. Innovation in technology is not just silicon valley.
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  19.  @raysambath5505  ICBMS only go at those speeds when they are in a large arc decent they do not perform that at level flight. But it is a myth that they cannot stop fast moving targets because that speed limited of Patriots are in accent and it is possible to know what their speeds are for decent as it is classified. The defence missiles abilities are really defined by targeting, tracking and computation.
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  20. There will be a large number of people that will not get through it to have that natural immunity. And because the virus is fast spreading the deaths will appear over a short period of time. Flu is not as fast spreading so it means that the deaths are spread out over time so that most people can get treatment when they present with issues. Imagine a hospital that is full to the brim with sick people and a person shows up with covid and is in the middle of an asthma attack Vitamin D is a great help to many people but there is deficiency levels in China that have never been addressed. .
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  21. What made you think such a thing?
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  22. Yes that is what he is saying. It is the higher quality iron and steel production at a national level that the US imports and processes. The US still produces its own from ground to foundry but it does not dominate the market but that is about to change in the near to medium future as there is going to be a reshoring and build out when US industry cannot access the same volumes.
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  23. The US never supported him against USSR as that group was never involved in that fight. They came much later and were terrorist's at heart.
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  24. It is more than just greens which are bad enough on their own. Germany has built its economic output on that cheap energy but at the same time has a demographic crisis on the horizon. So even if they could bring a solution to the table for energy they will then be walking straight into another massive issue.
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  25. Remember you are talking about Russia in the middle of a war. If it is just minor damage they may get the repairs done quickly but it is not a 24 hour turn around.
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  26. Europe is like a drug addict that is out of shape, knows it needs to do something but just continues on with its old life style.
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  27. There is not enough young people out there for many of these countries to import.
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  28. Australia has been in a very restrictive property market for the last 25 years. The housing stock in places like sydney was very low in the year 2000 and it has never been address and the amount of regulations restricting development has increased.
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  29. There is not a lot to say about Australia and what he says about Australia is that it will be fine but it needs to start having more children. Australia over the next 25 years is probably going to have a boom because it has more 20 to 40 year olds than 50 to 70 year olds but does have a lower number of under 20 year olds. It will be interesting to see if the next generation wants to have lots of children and if it does Australia will have a bright future. Areas that Australia could really ramp it up is manufacturing and value added market practices. That means taking all those deep raw material reserves and turning them into products and using the coal, oil and gas for industrial energy. Autralia has a potentially large consumer market just waiting to expand.
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  30. Russian culture has a desired to have an empire that stretches from the Bering Sea to the Atlantic. In their mind that is the only way they can be safe and secure in their position. Russia has always had that desire going back centuries. Whether it was the Tsars or Salin it always had one mind set of expansion. If Ukraine falls Europe need not be under no other impression that Russia is going for broke. Russia will not settle with just plugging the gap at Poland.
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  31. Cold Rolled steel that is sourced from processed iron and is more expensive and is easier to make make higher quality variants. Who are some of you trying to kid here with your comments?
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  32.  @gausselim1474  It is unfortunate because there are going to be companies that make good products that are going to fall into decline. We are going to see a few slew of kodak's popping up.
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  33. US has a large number of them but is not processing them. Places like Australia and Canada also have rare earths but do not have a well developed market place.
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  34.  @VilkatisJanis  The US is not a threat to anybody. The only time the US becomes a threat is when a country or culture starts attacking its interests. And with the US there tends to be a period of escalation before it gets to the hot stuff.
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  35. Storing oil above ground is complex and building underground capacity is very expensive and beyond Russian industrial capabilities.
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  36. The problem is what is to stop Russia from then invading Europe? That is one of the real reason so many European leaders are freaked out.
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  37. US prices difference in sectors are different from the likes of Taiwan and that applies vice versa. Unless there is a common factor such as component or raw commodity that both regions source from. The US does most of its trade internally with only about 5% reliant on international.
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  38. Nuclear weapons would not be as effective as people think. Delivering them across distance would be the first challenge that many countries would not be capable of performing. Then trying to get such a missile active in the combat zone that is of a scale that would damage the opposition would be even more complicated for the vast majority of countries. Pretty much any country could set of a nuclear detonation for the cameras but trying to do that in warfare is of a different level of complexity.
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  39. It is more expensive to produced cold rolled steel but it is easier to process for higher quality steel.
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  40. Trump did some good administrative work and some good policy work but his divisive character that he was playing really damaged his ability to function as president at the executive level. Even some of his own appointments worked against him.
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  41. The Balloon shows how desperate China really is. Balloons are 1950s level technology and were around in war for longer than that. What this really demonstrates is that Chinese intelligence through satellites and aerial surveillance is several decades behind the other players. But why is anybody surprised by this?
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  42. US has no shortage of fertilizer production as it is a by-product of oil and gas industry.
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  43. You think Spain is in the economic standing to do that?
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  44. European countries are not suppose to use deficit spending. Many of them simply do not have the financial power to carry out deficit spending to plug the problem because they are already in deficit trying to support their welfare state programs. Gone are the days of having a large cake and eating what they want they are going to have to make sacrifice's such as not having energy or not having pharma.
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  45. Turkey main problem is the PKK and they could cut a deal there if they were wise and gain more points with the European countries and also allow them to further negotiate with the US. The biggest problem Turkey has is that Erdoğan exerts too much power and his current policies have driven inflation to the point that it could cause their economy to collapse. Turkey has the exact same problem that China has in that there is no genuine political alternative because the opposition has been taken out. Turkey may even face collapse before the NATO issue comes to ahead.
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  46. Dollar is just a name and was never a structural natural market device of trade. No two countries dollars are alike.
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  47. Automation will do remarkable things and it will transform the world over the next 20 years and it will follow the Ray Kurzweil trajectory but none of that will be a magic bullet for countries with bad demographics and industrial output that is based on bad foundations. America will go through an automation revolution as will many other countries but it will not impact the world for another 20 to 30 years. By the time that technology is there places like China and Russia will break up into about 50 different countries.
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  48. The what on earth are you talking about in terms of the F-35.
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  49. Most Russians are clueless on the war but there is bound to be stories getting home as to what is happening.
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  50. Japan's culture of honor and commitment was developed in a different era and not an industrial city age. He may just a singular anomaly but we cannot rule out that there maybe something else a play.
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