Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. They are not raising interest rates to stave off a recession. They expect that recession to happen as a certainty. They are raising interest rates to stop inflation. And their primary reason for doing that is because once inflation starts it can be very difficult to stop and can play out of decades. In 1970 the US inflation rate was about 6% and by 1980 it was at 14%. With there being periods during that of peak inflation hitting 24%.
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  2. No. It has to do with staying on America's good side.
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  3. Just so that Peter understands this Christmas is a festive period which means it carries right up to the new year and then winds down after New Years Day. It is sort of like demographics with 20 to 40 where all the action takes place and after that it is all winding down.
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  4. Germany used to be Prussia.
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  5. US is the world's largest oil producer and gas producer. The US imports very little energy and what it goes import is really used as part of energy training. The vast majority of US electricity is Coal, Gas and Nuclear and there is no threat to that at all. Do not confuse shutdown economics with natural abilities and production.
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  6. When the latte sipping green hippies are living in a brutal new world their views may change.
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  7. In the 1960s German fertility rate was at 2.5 which means it is in growth.
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  8. I would suggest you first read the book Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham that was written in 1949. It is based on his older book Security Analysis that was written during the great depression. It can become your investment bible that you use to develop your knowledge and act as a reference. If you are a young german with no family dependents look at emigrating to the US.
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  9. Tesla being a success does not mean that all cars can be electric in 10 years time. There simply is not enough copper on earth to have every car as electric and to have renewable. For electric cars to be a reality it will need better battery energy storage and charging, development of a new alloy to replace copper and then a national scale build out of charging power points and so on. That is not a 10 year development.
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  10. Scottish oil as in UK oil is important but on its own it would never sustain Scotland as an economy. Scotland had a point economically where it could have went independent but that is now long past.
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  11. What has that got to do with what Peter is talking about?
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  12. That is complete nonsense. Who are you trying to kid?
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  13.  @giovanni-ed7zq  Lottering munitions would probably be more effective as they would provide data of enemy positions but also lead to more accurate targeting. In a large scale offensive the ability to target accurately with information is key. Drones can start to make artillery warfare as accurate as missile warfare.
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  14. The US gave the Soviets in WW2 400,000 vehicles, 25000 tanks, 25000 aircraft, machines for the factories, raw materials, industrial tool sets, ball bearings and even built factories in Russia for them. When people talk about the counter offensive that is how it was able to happen.
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  15. That may be fine and dandy but what Ukraine will also need is loiter munitions that can be used in the field by their troops. Hopefully that is what the new Stryker's will be used for.
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  16. It will be a slow withdrawal but it will happen.
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  17. I would love to see Peter on Joe Rogan or Lex and have a good 2 hour talk.
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  18. Canada is a much better destination than Germany. Peter is not saying that Canada will become a deadzone overnight. Would you not consider Australia as a destination as well. What is your professional field?
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  19.  @emmanuelmasindi2390  No body believes those figures of 10,000 to 20,000 for army trying to invade another country with an army over the space of a year. For the level of action to only have 10,000 causalities would be absurd at best. You need to lay of the sources and look at reality of war not the entertainment version.
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  20. If you sold at the top of the market and are mortgage free you can now use that money to buy a property in a lower priced area and be mortgage free.
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  21.  @Telluwide  Nobody can do nation building and that term is just a PR term that has no meaning. It never was a serious move or investment.
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  22. It will only take one incident from a maritime point of view for a crisis to just mushroom out of that. One uninsured ship getting seized or assets getting impounded would send shockwaves.
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  23.  @NickSteffen  Producing lots of cheap plastic products for western markets does not make the Chinese economy the worlds largest manufacturer. Neither does importing most of its food and pretending that it has manufactured that food.
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  24. As long as people are politically active and willing to keep government in check it will be balanced. Once people are apathetic and not active then anything can happen. I think people have had enough of lockdowns and for it to begin again it would need to be an outbreak deadly enough that people would see it for them self in their own communities.
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  25. It is not that simply. Many will not have some sort of transition they have their culture and the road has already been built. If a country has 4 million 15 to 20 year old females there is no way that group can have the same number of children as 8 million women in that age group when they marry. Many countries are going to face an economic crash there is just no other way it can happen. Many countries have already slammed on the breaks but they are skidding forward and about to crash.
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  26. No advantage at all. Solar is not realistic for individual because the moment everybody would want it the price would shoot up and the availability simply would not b viable.
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  27. Germany industrial energy has been cheap. That cost basis is not going to go up several fold.
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  28. The European CAP system is going to cost trillions, common fishing policies has meant that countries that have no right to be fishing have all of a sudden got a fishing industry where they go and take fish from places like Ireland and the UK.
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  29. People not interested in watching cats they are only interested in what Peter has to say. They most certainly should be edited out.
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  30. An industrialized economy is different from a country just having industry. An industrialized economy is from top to bottom which France did not do. The US was the same it was not from top to bottom. The US was very late to the game.
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  31.  @Withnail1969  You are correct most US oil cannot be used for efficient diesel production but how does that qualify your opening statement "it's not true though". The US does not need most of its oil for petrochemicals.
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  32. Probably never unless they feel there is an advantage to it.
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  33.  @mcinnisj100  Those countries can choose to be poverty stricken if they want to by playing with their own currencies. OPEC countries have been claiming that they would have their own currency from the foundations of the group. For all that money that they earned from Oil they have not built one value added economy. Every production centre within the OPEC economic space has been built by the western US dollar economy.
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  34. The best presidents are those that held office as a governor. It is not about being smart and having good policy. It is about running an executive.
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  35.  @ivancho5854  It is far easier technologically to do carbon and waste scrubbing at coal energy plants than it is to build out a complete renewable system. i am not that worried about climate change but what does bother me is local and regional pollution that will work its way into local soil, food supplies, air quality and so on.
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  36. You simply do not understand the US dollar then. The USD is based on the internal trade of the US economy that then means new currency is created. The reason they use QE is because they allow so much money to go abroad to other economies for trade so they have to make up the shortage of currency in US banking transactions. Several large banks in the US ran out of cash that could be used for trade even though they had very healthy balances of reserves but not the cash in clearing to be sent. So when you hear QE it has nothing to do with government needing money.
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  37. Not even close. Most what was left behind was sabotaged or completely destroyed. Only a few bits of material was remaining.
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  38. Go and do some research on the start of WW2 and look at US relations with Japan before WW2. That may enlighten you a little. The US did sanctions on Japan because they were expanding in the pacific and Asia major. Japan invaded China and other countries. US then put oil embargoes and trade embargo's on Japan. It was a series of economic moves that lead to Japan striking the US in the middle of WW2.
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  39. It is all a fantasy.
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  40. It needs technology and industrial capabilities to exist. It was not a natural place that people settled in.
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  41.  @maciejzwolinski2381  The reason we do not have an economic model comparable is that we have not seen a country since the era of the Roman Empire that imported the majority of its raw materials and then export the majority of its productivity. We do not have a modern world example that would allow us to compute such a situation. During the era of the black death or even industrial revolution there is no comparable system to that of China. Take Japan for example it is an export driven country and imports most of its raw materials and has a falling population but has built out its industrial base over the last 40 years to be heavily automated and now requires less of a workforce than it did 25 years ago. It literally cannot be compared to China even though they have the same problem.
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  42. US does not benefit from the EU turmoil and may end having to go and fight the wars that spring up later.
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  43.  @davidandrews1715  It was a period of hard choices that had to be made. the 1980s economics of the US was a response to the sloppy 1970s policies that encouraged expansion. If the UK had of followed the US lead in cutting taxes at the same time and deregulating they would have expanded their market base but instead the UK media and the unions along with members of parliament decided cutting taxes was not a good thing so only limited amounts of tax cuts happened.
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  44. That is nonsense. Afghanistan was one big resource and training camp and had no intention of disbanding that. The Taliban just did not know the intension's of the US because they tended to be very insulated hence why they did not grasp what the US military could do to the place.
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  45. Absolutely zero. It is a made up term for those that think they can plan economics. Those that go on about it would make you believe that a manufacturer can just produce something at no extra cost that lasts for 5 times longer. The reason why a fridge today costs $500 as opposed to $1500 is due to the fact the manufacturer has designed it to be more cheaply made. Nothing to do with planned obsolescence.
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  46. If Germany had of planned out their nuclear and clean coal plants they would not be facing the same level of issues right now. But they would not have had the manufacturing advantage they had over the last 3 decades.
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  47. Every country needs to be focused on its own culture.
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  48. Narrow ai tools still need to be developed to make it to the next stage of general ai. There is a lot to be gained from narrow ai before we get anywhere near the super complex developments. In 20 years time ai will look a lot different from today but not in the next 2 years.
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  49. Canada, Mexico and US have their own oil and industry to back it. The problem is that Europe thought it was more important to build welfare states, lecture America about morality and do nothing in the world. Europe is now on a fish hook and may end up on the dinner plate at some point.
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  50. It still shows that Russia needs that ammunition whoever they are getting it from. The question then becomes does Chinese ammo work well with Russian systems.
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