Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1.  @raysambath5505  ICBMS only go at those speeds when they are in a large arc decent they do not perform that at level flight. But it is a myth that they cannot stop fast moving targets because that speed limited of Patriots are in accent and it is possible to know what their speeds are for decent as it is classified. The defence missiles abilities are really defined by targeting, tracking and computation.
    4
  2.  @VilkatisJanis  The US is not a threat to anybody. The only time the US becomes a threat is when a country or culture starts attacking its interests. And with the US there tends to be a period of escalation before it gets to the hot stuff.
    4
  3. Remember you are talking about Russia in the middle of a war. If it is just minor damage they may get the repairs done quickly but it is not a 24 hour turn around.
    4
  4. Japan's culture of honor and commitment was developed in a different era and not an industrial city age. He may just a singular anomaly but we cannot rule out that there maybe something else a play.
    4
  5. US does not benefit from the EU turmoil and may end having to go and fight the wars that spring up later.
    3
  6. Most major cities in the world will have aircraft coming into them. If you are in certain parts of the city it will be much more noticeable.
    3
  7. It is not that simply. Many will not have some sort of transition they have their culture and the road has already been built. If a country has 4 million 15 to 20 year old females there is no way that group can have the same number of children as 8 million women in that age group when they marry. Many countries are going to face an economic crash there is just no other way it can happen. Many countries have already slammed on the breaks but they are skidding forward and about to crash.
    3
  8. Canada, Mexico and US have their own oil and industry to back it. The problem is that Europe thought it was more important to build welfare states, lecture America about morality and do nothing in the world. Europe is now on a fish hook and may end up on the dinner plate at some point.
    3
  9. Go and do some research on the start of WW2 and look at US relations with Japan before WW2. That may enlighten you a little. The US did sanctions on Japan because they were expanding in the pacific and Asia major. Japan invaded China and other countries. US then put oil embargoes and trade embargo's on Japan. It was a series of economic moves that lead to Japan striking the US in the middle of WW2.
    3
  10. It will only take one incident from a maritime point of view for a crisis to just mushroom out of that. One uninsured ship getting seized or assets getting impounded would send shockwaves.
    3
  11. That would not be enough to make the function as an industrial power. TSMC does not dominate higher end chip manufacturing and is a mid level player.
    3
  12. That is fantasy and you are not going to convince people of that.
    3
  13. That is pure fantasy and Germany produces nowhere near 50% of their energy needs. The real figure is not even 5%.
    3
  14. That is nonsense. Afghanistan was one big resource and training camp and had no intention of disbanding that. The Taliban just did not know the intension's of the US because they tended to be very insulated hence why they did not grasp what the US military could do to the place.
    3
  15. The best presidents are those that held office as a governor. It is not about being smart and having good policy. It is about running an executive.
    3
  16. That is just a fantasy idea. If narcotics was to be legalized there would always be a black market for something.
    3
  17. Absolutely zero. It is a made up term for those that think they can plan economics. Those that go on about it would make you believe that a manufacturer can just produce something at no extra cost that lasts for 5 times longer. The reason why a fridge today costs $500 as opposed to $1500 is due to the fact the manufacturer has designed it to be more cheaply made. Nothing to do with planned obsolescence.
    3
  18. It needs technology and industrial capabilities to exist. It was not a natural place that people settled in.
    3
  19.  @Telluwide  Nobody can do nation building and that term is just a PR term that has no meaning. It never was a serious move or investment.
    3
  20. Australia has more people aged from 25 to 45 than it does 45 to 65. And it is quite a significant difference as well. Australia is probably going to have a boom because of that demographic bulge but beyond that there is not that many under the age of 20 but that could change as the current 25 year olds start to have children and get married. What Australia really needs to do is move its culture towards value added economics that means using all that natural resources to fund and supply their own industries. Australia currently has 80 million sheep and there is no reason why that stock cannot be grown and why all that wool cannot be turned into Australian made luxury clothing and use all that cheap coal, oil, gas and solar potential to manufacture those up market well made garments.
    3
  21. Not even close. Most what was left behind was sabotaged or completely destroyed. Only a few bits of material was remaining.
    3
  22. The US gave the Soviets in WW2 400,000 vehicles, 25000 tanks, 25000 aircraft, machines for the factories, raw materials, industrial tool sets, ball bearings and even built factories in Russia for them. When people talk about the counter offensive that is how it was able to happen.
    3
  23. What on earth are you talking about You have just conflated several ideas and rolled them into one.
    3
  24. Setting up semi conductor plants and industry is very complex and requires lots of capital and the ability to take advantage of market needs.
    3
  25.  @adamkoslin9302  War games over estimate Russian and Chinese capabilities.
    3
  26. They are only games and not reality. War that is fought on the battlefield is not the same as war games.
    3
  27.  @Katoshi_Takagumi  The problem with Raw materials for China from Russia is that there is no means of transporting them at scale. China gets the majority of its oil via the middle east because it can be transported on the sea's but to then try and take that via the sea from Russia would quadruple the cost of the raw material.
    3
  28. It still shows that Russia needs that ammunition whoever they are getting it from. The question then becomes does Chinese ammo work well with Russian systems.
    3
  29. As long as people are politically active and willing to keep government in check it will be balanced. Once people are apathetic and not active then anything can happen. I think people have had enough of lockdowns and for it to begin again it would need to be an outbreak deadly enough that people would see it for them self in their own communities.
    3
  30.  @wesc6755  If you listen to what Peter is imply he is saying in the terms of Russia using Nuclear weapons not that they actually will use them. So what sort of scenario would Russia use them for attack. He is saying they would be more purposeful to use against those cities than within Ukraine that their own troops would then have to occupy. People are being too pedantic with what he is saying rather than trying to absorb the greater meaning.
    3
  31.  @davidpnewton  The UK does not have a constitution it has a system of crown government. So what on earth do you mean by not true?
    3
  32. Vaccine risks have been way over played. They are not any more significant than taking over the country medications. What has made it look worse is the fact that everybody has got vaccinated at the same time so it appears like a large number have complications. The problem is that a larger number of infected people have had more complications from the virus.
    3
  33. Boring is better and does not cost the lives of people.
    3
  34. Zeihan does it to both sides but people of one side will only hear what they want to hear.
    3
  35. Sometimes facts hurt people's feelings.
    3
  36. People do not like to hear the truth. It sometimes challenges their world view.
    3
  37. People not interested in watching cats they are only interested in what Peter has to say. They most certainly should be edited out.
    3
  38. What has that got to do with what Peter is talking about?
    3
  39. The EU does not have the ability to actually federalize.
    3
  40. An industrialized economy is different from a country just having industry. An industrialized economy is from top to bottom which France did not do. The US was the same it was not from top to bottom. The US was very late to the game.
    3
  41. In the 1960s German fertility rate was at 2.5 which means it is in growth.
    3
  42. It does not function at all. It is a place that has starvation as a norm, constantly has disease outbreaks and is not able to project any sort of power. At some point there is going to be a rebellion there of some sort.
    3
  43.  @emmanuelmasindi2390  No body believes those figures of 10,000 to 20,000 for army trying to invade another country with an army over the space of a year. For the level of action to only have 10,000 causalities would be absurd at best. You need to lay of the sources and look at reality of war not the entertainment version.
    3
  44. It depends on how much resources the EU, UK, US, Canada, Japan and Australia throw at Moldova.
    3
  45. Cruise missiles can use precision guidance systems. Iranian drones are not precision systems.
    3
  46. Peter has never said that Russia was strong compared to the west. This is really Ukraines first tango so it was assumed that Russia would flatten them. The war is not yet over and for all we know Russia could outlast Ukraine. Will need to wait and see how this all goes down.
    3
  47.  @davidandrews1715  It was a period of hard choices that had to be made. the 1980s economics of the US was a response to the sloppy 1970s policies that encouraged expansion. If the UK had of followed the US lead in cutting taxes at the same time and deregulating they would have expanded their market base but instead the UK media and the unions along with members of parliament decided cutting taxes was not a good thing so only limited amounts of tax cuts happened.
    3
  48. If you sold at the top of the market and are mortgage free you can now use that money to buy a property in a lower priced area and be mortgage free.
    3
  49. I would suggest you first read the book Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham that was written in 1949. It is based on his older book Security Analysis that was written during the great depression. It can become your investment bible that you use to develop your knowledge and act as a reference. If you are a young german with no family dependents look at emigrating to the US.
    3
  50. It will be a mixture of new models and older models. All of them are probably been fitted out with modern comms and firing systems. As long as they can communicate with a level of precision the older tanks will be formidable and probably capable of outperforming the most up to date Russian tanks.
    3