Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Yes they intend to march beyond Ukraine.
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  2. That is just pure fantasy at best.
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  3. Harsh? US birth rate goes up and down based on various factors. In the late 1970s US birth rate was 1.8 but but by the 1980s it was above 2 and stayed that way for nearly 25 years. German birth rate for the last 40 years has stayed below 2. Facts do not care about our feelings.
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  4.  @MarcosElMalo2  Yes and that means it is not easily transported. The cost of transport will drive up the cost of Chinese production by a factor of 50. That means it will not be competitive nor will it be stable for economic growth.
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  5. Neither Briton nor the US has operations in the region. It would be madness for them to attempt such a thing because if they were caught it would mean WW3. No if it was a commando operation it probably was Ukrainian forces that have been trained by Britain and America. After all this time Ukraine would need to have such teams in the theater. There has probably been a hundred billion committed to help Ukraine at this point and that would buy a lot of trained Ukrainian commando teams. Russians missile campaign has done very little damage to Ukraines military capabilities.
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  6. Unions have a bad rap because since the 1920s they have been heavily infiltrated by Marxists who simply are not interested in the workers. In the UK the USSR had infiltrated the unions which culminated in the UK unions trying to bring down the UK economy in the 1970s when it was on its knees after the war.
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  7. Nope that is not what happened. Germany was never going to choose sides with Russia because Germany full well knows it would be junior partner and as such could be invaded at a later date.
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  8. It is not a stop gap and will be part of the Japanese missile defence system.
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  9. The problem in Europe has never been about heating homes or dying from cold. It has always been about industrial processes namely in Germany but also other locations.
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  10. The US is not printing extra currency to make it self rich it is doing so to make sure there is enough in supply. The great depression happened because the federal reserve was too conservative and it led to a situation where money in the economy was in short supply.
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  11. Europe's energy crisis is not about people dying from cold. It is about their industries not being able to manufacture at the same cheap prices as before. Germany is clearly going to be impacted by this the most. Germany industry is going to see a 8 fold increase in the base cost of its industrial energy inputs. And that is being optimistic at best. That does not mean that their products will cost 8 times more when manufactured but it will put a significant cost on he production of a product. So a German car that cost €50000 and look attractive and luxurious may still keep that luxurious standard but all of a sudden it may cost €55000.
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  12.  Morgan Allen  The whole catholic population thing in Ireland is very misleading as there is no such religion as Protestantism but even putting that aside Ireland is not a country that is active it tends to be passive and reactive to the world. The republic of Ireland's biggest problem is that it is too heavily invested in the EU project. The EU will be collapsing and Ireland as a culture will still be pushing the EU as some sort of virtue. The whole of the media class and political class in Ireland are pro EU. There is simply no sceptaism of the EU on any significant level in Ireland. It is so bad in Ireland that the country gave up its fishing waters which is as value as Norwegian oil.
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  13. The EU is run and propped up by zealots and ideologues. They only react when they have no choice such as the Ukraine war. They would have happily carried on buying Russian energy and pretending that it was green energy.
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  14. Then name the country you think has the lowest.
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  15. It is worth having children over all those risks.
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  16. That 1865 figure that people keep quoting is in relation to Japan industrializing its Navy. Japan was considered to be the first Asian nation to industrialize its navy.
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  17. It could have the opposite effect.
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  18.  @plantruster7999  Were you paid to counter his post against NATO?
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  19. Ai is very easy to predict the frame work and maps are already there but the claims of big leaps to take all our jobs tomorrow are absurd and ChatGPT while an improvement in chat systems is not an ai that can truly take over anything. It will be a good tool in the information space but not robotics.
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  20.  @RichardBrubaker  None of the countries you have listed have yet gone through this. There is nothing you have offered that can be used to describe.
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  21. The biggest problem is extracting them from the devices in an efficient manner.
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  22.  @Phoenixpk6  Nuclear power is not a solution.
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  23. Makes them targets in a war zone just as we have seen demonstrated.
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  24. But no industry to develop steel. If Australia could get its head out it could really achieve something but will time be on its side.
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  25.  @LucasFernandez-fk8se  There is no such thing as a European culture. German people are not the same as Italian just as French are not the same as Spanish. The EU has been a delusion that people just accept as normal.
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  26. He is being polite with the 70 year figure as the reality is that the reaction that was done as part of the experiment into fusion is not a viable energy generation system. He is pointing out the obvious to people that do not understand.
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  27. It is fantasy to think that this will play out in the short term. This is a research milestone nothing else. It is not the big breakthrough that will make it easier to produce.
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  28. He should use Twitter as well. It is not going anywhere.
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  29. So can you explain what you mean.
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  30. It may walk like a duck, quack like a duck but swims like a plastic toy. We all may know what is going on but that is not proof.
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  31. Sweden has more people aged 20 to 35 than it does from 45 to 65. That is described as a demographic bulge.
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  32. The under laying issues that they have such as demographics, food and energy are all going do dictate.
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  33. They are paid above average industrial wages. Their salaries are better than those that work in food plants, supermarkets, construction and so on. They have some of the best safety standards of the industrial world. Their collective bargaining has enabled that. Paid sick leave is not a thing they should be pushing for. If they want that they just need to start up their own insurance system that could get government capital to start with and then be self sustaining with payments from employees.
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  34. It will be interesting too see if China starts crossing the Rubicon and supplies weapons to Russia in an overt fashion.
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  35.  @donatoferioli7426  What has rich and poor got to do with anything?
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  36. That smuggling is simply not going to have much of an effect on a country the size of Russia which needs industrial scale production and trade.
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  37. EV have a nice smooth drive and have a unique power feeling especially when you accelerate but they are a luxury product and not a general market product.
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  38.  @TheReferrer72  Germany invested trillions into renewable energy and at the same time increased its overall carbon output. Many of us have been warning what is coming down the line and yet nobody seems to care. This only the start of what is coming not the end point.
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  39.  @suple87  There are no countries in Europe that can take cars of the road and then replace that will public transport. European city transport is good from a service point of view but that will not cut it in transnational crisis events like this. What has kept the EU afloat for the last few decades has been German industrial output but that is not going to be the case when the energy cost of production has a tenfold increase in cost. We are watching the decline of the EU happening in slow motion.
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  40. They will do it as there will be a capital flight out of Europe. The UK market has the tools to enable it to dampen the outward flow of capital without doing anything to drastic. Since you have pointed out that it has not happened in decades that answer your question any small amount of control will look like the sky is falling.
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  41. They tend to be republicans that are sympathetic to Putin for whatever reason they have. Democrats have that same wing as well but it was mostly purged following the democratic party hysteria following 2016.
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  42. How do you find somebody that is neutral about geopolitics that is based on geography?
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  43. That's if you believe the story.
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  44. Does not have enough supply of water and then in hot periods it dries up and will make the region even hotter.
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  45. You are talking crap. Frances demographics are down to the people of France. Immigration has no impact on it in any significant way.
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  46. Storage and transmission is the real issue when it comes to wind energy. It really needs to used on a local loads such as factories and so on. The actual maintenance of offshore wind turbines must be insane and a lot of Enron level accounting is probably taking place. You will hear the term peak energy which is a very clever way of saying that they get enough energy for a short period of time that they then present as being the whole time.
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  47. Sort of but hard to know if it would exactly play out the same.
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  48.  @gviehmann  Take that with a pinch of salt. There is always a cover story.
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  49.  @michaelpettersson4919  They are cheap but also shows desperation on their behalf. Not even during the cold war was Balloons used in that capacity because they were easily tracked and could be intercepted. I suspect the US military would not have actually shot it down if it was not for the public outcry and they would have used it for counter intelligence.
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  50. The difference this time is that Germany is not fighting the Anglo World like it did in WW2. The reason why Germany could not push beyond operation Barbarossa was due to them fighting a war on too many fronts. Part 2 would be completely different with the full might of modern German industry being used to build a European wide military effort and with French and British industrial power chipping in as well. I think we all know where the world is heading.
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