Comments by "Cross Link" (@crosslink1493) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. One thing you forgot about the "squishy soft" Canadian permafrost in the summer months - the mosquitos. Lots and lot of mosquitos. And they are BIGLY!
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  2. Peter coming from Monarch Beach in the south end of Laguna Beach, California. Reality is the people living in the multi-million-dollar homes up on those cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean are not the least bit worried about a recession.
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  3. This all started with that Chinese ship about a year ago, where the captain denied doing it, then bragged about it after positively linked to it, so I wonder if it will include any Chinese-flagged boats regardless of their cargo (oil or other). That reminded me of the final scene in Monty Python's 'Holy Grail" movie with the French soldier in the tower shouting insults at the King and his band of men.
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  4. I'd go one step further, South Africa is a country on the verge of collapse, a good metaphor for where BRICS seems to be heading. As Peter and someone else mentioned, India is there just to keep China from totally dominating the organization and the 'Global South.' They are doing pretty well by staying non-aligned and (right now) better off doing their own deals, as they did with Saudi Arabia (or was it the UAE?) and Russia for oil.
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  5. 6:15 The term 'Smart light bulb'; some things just don't need a semiconductor inside them. Peter, if you read these, have you heard anything about financial problems at Huawei? They've been doing a lot of bond sales this year with some odd yields, and the bonds are unsecured. Rumor is they're having big financial problems and the bonds are something of a 'cover' for the CCP to use instead of just doing the normal looting of banks and accounts of the few profitable industries in China to keep them afloat.
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  6. You can find gasoline for $4/gallon pretty easily here in California. Those $7+ prices you see on the sensationalized television news are a few stations in downtown areas of California's big cities that have expensive rent and other high costs to do business.
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  7. Along with investing stupidly, those low, low interest rates encouraged people to spend stupidly, too. Flipping cars every 3-5 years is my pet peeve about overspenders.
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  8. I liked that opening part where you describe the different tribal/ethnic/religious divisions around the country and the way that's set up the government's form of democracy based on those differences. If you've ever taken a dive into the evolution of the USA's constitution in the 1780s it's somewhat similar, just trade Nigeria's ethnic areas for the 13 states, and each area/state looking out for its own interests. I sure hope they can get things settled and everyone working together. Same with the rest of Africa in this post-colonial era (Zimbabwe and South Africa come to mind).
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  9. I think you mean nuclear reactors in Iran? Saddam spent money building palaces for himself, not power plants for the country.
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  10. Yep, it been that way for a while. As this video kept going I was wondering if PZ was going to mention California's precarious position. There is crude production in California but its been dropping for the last few decades, and there is a bit of importing from some other minor western USA oil fields, but the volume its no where near what's needed to supply California's thirst for fuel. EDIT: Forgot to mention that west Arizona and southern Nevada (Las Vegas) gets their petroleum products from California. Not sure if the Reno, NV area gets its supply from the San Francisco Bay area. I think Phoenix still gets fuels from Texas, they were looking at a pipeline link to CA a few years back.
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  11. More like "It's worse than I thought, and next we'll see Trump will find a way to make it even worser". And this is only one month into a 4-year presidential term.
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  12. Its not just the oil supply. The problem with invading and taking over a 'basket case' of a country like Venezuela is that you have to manage it, or in this case set up a whole new management structure (government) to prevent it from turning into a lawless patch of land (like Libya and Somalia).
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  13. Yeah, when it comes to this detailed science stuff he's getting out of his specialty of geopolitics between world capitols and leadership. I know some basics on the whole nuclear power issue and science behind it, more than Peter but nowhere near enough to make detailed comments on it.
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  14. A lot of Japanese manufacturers did that back in the late-1970s/early-1980s. Tariffs were one reason, others were the cost of shipping stuff from Japan to the USA was a lot higher than it is today, construction costs were a lot less (considering time to build and materials as labor rates were about the same), and the cost of land, even in Southern California, was considered a dirt-cheap bargain compared to industrial/commercial land in Japan.
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  15. Probably another video, but any opinion on the Chinese upgrade of their 'listening post' in the Cocos Islands (Myanmar territory in the Bay of Bengal). That's supposed to be in the process of an upgrade to a full-fledged Chinese military base in addition to the one in Djibouti, and its not sitting too well with India.
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  16. Not only the natural resources, but the business community. When manufacturing departed in the 1980s-1990s (for a variety of reasons), California banked heavily of the service economy where wages are lower for most people with exceptions for legal, hi-tech, etc. This created the classic rich/poor divide we see today. California also enabled illegal immigration by passing laws that ignored immigration status and outright prohibited engaging with federal officials on enforcement. If it does start collapsing as Peter suggests in this video (to the status of a third-world state?) I will not be surprised. I'll be dead and gone by then, but I hope anyone looking to the future gets out now.
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  17. True that Nixon 'broke the ice' and 'opened the door'. That started negotiations on relations that ran through the Ford administration years, then the deal was finalized during the Carter administration, including the formal ambassadorships and the neutral position of the USA towards Taiwan (rather than outright support).
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  18. I remember the phone with the rotary dial, and it also had the 'dial tone' to let you know the line was 'open' when you put it up to your ear, or the 'beep-beep-beep' when there were no open lines. No dial tones on cell phones these days. I was in college when the Iranian Revolution happened and a lot of the Iranian students would disappear after class, apparently fearful of reprisals when the USA Embassy in Tehran was taken over. Also worked with a lot of Iranian engineers and tech guys/gals in the 1980s, most told me they applied for and got asylum after the Shah fell and the Iran/Iraq war started as they got to the USA via the Shah's connections with the USA and would be drafted (or imprisoned) if they went back. Those were pretty wild times.
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  19. Actually its done overnight in California after the polls close as 8PM. Very close races will be recounted to ensure the results and would take a day (or two). A very, very few very close races might be contested by a candidate and require a recount by hand and take longer, but they are very unusual. The California Secretary of State certifies election results about a month after the election, but that's more of a formality in this day & age.
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  20. I hear you. By the 1960's you didn't need kids to help out around your 'estate', typically a suburban house with a small yard, as you didn't have all that 40+ acres of farmland to maintain. Another factor in the industrialization of a country. I'm a single white male and get blamed for all the world's problems, so just take a number, get in line, and I'll get to your complaint whenever.
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  21. But what does that $57K/year buy you in Greenland? I'll bet the price of a dozen eggs is much, much higher there than in Palm Beach Florida.
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  22. When you say 'upper right quadrant' of a hurricane, do you mean northeast? I'm a boomer who understands compass directions. and 'upper right quadrant' is going to be dependent on the directions you are facing. The "Gen-afters" have no sense of N-S-E-W so they are lost to begin with. And if you're always putting that long hair into a 'man-bun' why not just cut it off into a short hair style.
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  23. I'm wonder why Mr. Zeihan downplays China in these videos about Middle East status. They are involved with the Iranians, but also with the Saudis (and the UAE) as they keep buying a good quantity of crude oil to fuel their thirst for energy. Maybe he should have thrown in a bit on why the Chinese aren't doing more for military port access and their PLA Navy isn't rotating more ships over to the waters in that area (Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, etc).
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  24. Yeah, that really caught my attention, too: "a piece of infrastructure built for another age, like these god-damn stairs!".
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  25.  @RoyalBlue517  One is considered an adversary, the other an friendly. Not really a double standard unless there's a different definition I'm unaware of.
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  26. From what I understand Italy's labor laws are pretty draconian, too. Its not worth it for an employer to expand his/her small business beyond (approximately) 10 employees as all kinds of burdensome employment laws kick in.
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  27. I thought Japan, at least its leadership beginning with P.M. Abe, realized they were in an 'isolated' area (geographically) and needed to be more 'assertive' with its axis neighbors such as Russia, North Korea, and China. Abe tried to push through changes to Japan's Constitutional description of the military (the JDF) from a purely defensive force to allow for more regional operations. I thought some changes got approved by their Parliament (the Diet) and has allowed the JDF to do more cooperative operations with South Korea, the USA, and Philippines (and Taiwan through some backdoor channels!). As for Germany, I don't know how well prepared they (or the rest of Western Europe) is as Russia's sabre rattling gets louder and louder. Contrast that with their neighbor Poland which is becoming more militarized and defiant of any provocations from the East (Russia or its 'cannon-fodder-puppet' Belarus).
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  28.  @shravankumardebbad6620  You're going to have to explain that one.
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  29. I wonder how much elevation loss Peter went through while hiking downhill and recording this video - from an alpine area with early-season snow patches down to a well- forested area has got to be pretty good loss in elevation.
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  30. I thought Israel and Turkey already had solid relations; not sure if 'great' would be proper. PZ doesn't mention it, but I'd bet they're closely coordinating with each other on what their militaries are doing in Syria so as not to mistakenly attack each other's positions. A few common goals for sure, but each has its own reasons for being there, too.
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  31. California's Central Valley farmers are always complaining. Either the government is doing too much and killing them off, or doing too little to help them out and killing them off. Peter forgot the Salinas and Imperial Valley, too. Each is those is year-round productive but has its own set of problems.
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  32. I was a member of the Teamsters and I'd say he was partially correct as the Teamsters top brass will swing to whichever side gives them the best deal while the locals are more looking out for front-line members. Trump is like that, full of more contradictions than a more typical politician, saying he supports the working guy and small business but the actions he's taken throughout the last 50 years are anything but that. Trump is all about Trump, the heck with the Republican party.
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  33. Yeah, interesting. I wonder if a patreon membership includes him giving out winning lottery numbers for the upcoming drawings. That might be worth the cost.
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  34. Similar here, but I was a white collar boomer that did blue collar work earlier on in life while in college working for a neighbor who was and electrical contractor and got my own license. I always kept my "hand in the trade" in my working years and it helped me through some rough economic times. I'm retired now and do small electrical jobs that the full-time contractors won't take (not profitable enough for them and their overhead). Yep, its 'mad money' for part-time work, and I can pick & choose the jobs I want to do.
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  35. But you're going to need someone to maintain/repair all those robots, and who is going to do that blue-collar 'grunt' work?
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  36.  @Eskeeter03  I'd be a cold day in Hades before that happened.
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  37. I noticed that too. The thumbnail on YT had 'BRIC' but he did say 'BRICS' as he started talking in the video (maybe just the plural form, BRIC's?). I guess he doesn't have high hopes for South Africa in the future. 😟
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  38. Finland took one a few weeks ago, Sweden this past week (after PZ made this video). I'm waiting to see what'll happen if they take one with heavy Chinese association (crew, cargo, or ownership). Germany did tow one into port but that was an oil tanker that lost power and not a suspect in cable or pipeline chicanery.
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  39. We in the USA feel your pain. Its crazy that 'Felon 47' is taking the route he is rather than bolster the Canada-USA-Mexico partnership to manufacture goods and provide services in North America for North Americans. Plenty of resources here on the continent that could create a strong, robust economic partnership. He's throwing it all away.
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  40.  @e.d9993  Didn't Hamas come about from the militant wings of the PLO and the Muslim Brotherhood combining forces, who both got kicked out of their respective organizations for being TOO violent against Israel? (and against Egypt in the case of the Muslim Brotherhood). And Hezbollah is a break-away faction due to its Shiite faith (vs Hamas' Sunni faith). I admit I have to tough time keeping track of the dynamics of all the groups in that area of the world!.
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  41. Another dysfunctional aspect of the EU might be its uncoordinated aerospace industry, especially when it comes to military hardware. They do cooperate quite well on Airbus and the ESA, but true military products (tanks, jets fighters, other smaller weapons systems and products) seem to be a source of national pride. As a result its kind of tough to make a cohesive military 'machine' when there's so much differentiation between them. Now add in a few ex-Soviet states with older hardware that needs to be replaced and the squabbling could get fierce.
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  42. I live in heavily Mexican influenced Southern California and I've never heard the acronym AMLO used when he's being referenced, just Obrador or Lopez Obrador. Full name for those interested is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. From what I know of his presidency in dealing with the cartels he just gave up on trying to root them out as long as they didn't get violent with the general Mexican population. That been a colossal failure, especially in the central-western states and the towns/cities bordering the USA.
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  43. He was mentioning 3X in North America for ISIS/jihadi attacks, not all over the world (although 3X seems low for North America). He did mention its more likely to happen in Europe, Africa, Middle East, South Asia, just due to proximity.
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  44. There have been multiple cables cut in the China/Taiwan area over the last few months.
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  45. Don't feel at-a-loss about the USA, nobody here in the USA knows what Trump's plans are either.
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  46. So if you are a 20-30 year old Finnish male of Russian descent, and you fly into Moscow with a Finnish passport, you'll suddenly be flown to the Russia/Ukranian front line? (or some version of that scenario?)
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  47. I thought Shein was trying to supplant Temu as the major supplier; how low can you go.
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  48.  @pingpongpaddlehead  Yes, nuclear-produced power, but more likely fission reactors. But whether fission of fusion, it still takes 10 years to build one, and that's assuming the additional 5+ years of planning and design go smoothly with minimal stumbling blocks (eco groups and nimbies).
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  49. Got to ask - are you referring to Bush Sr (1989-1983 president) or Bush Jr. (2001-2009 president)? What you wrote above seems mixed up between the two.
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  50. They're too busy out campaigning for the next election cycle, but turn on the CSPAN cameras in a hearing room and they all show up for some 'political theater' airtime that they can use for their re-election campaign.
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