Comments by "Stephen Jenkins" (@stephenjenkins7971) on "TLDR News EU"
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@bakiozturk2112 Bruh, since when are people so gullible as to take leaders, let alone proto-dictators at their word? Look at the dang treaty, and I'm pretty sure nothing there indicates that Sweden HAS to give Turkey anyone or anything.
You didn't actually answer me last time, so that indicates a lie. I will fully admit if I'm wrong, but I have seen nothing of the sort to prove me wrong.
Tell me, if Erdogan says that all who support the Kurds are against Turkish security, does that mean that we have to start silencing them for your security too? Simply saying; "it's for national security" isn't enough. Sweden is facing the possibility of an INVASION, while Turkey's national security is...what? Facing a far-away anti-Turkish propagandist at best?
If the US demanded that Turkey surrender its claims in the Cyprus lest Turkey get kicked out of NATO in the event of a possible Russian invasion, would you also call that a "win-win"? This is some common sense, bruh. It'd be one thing if Turkey tried this 2 years ago when things were relatively quiet, but now? That's just blackmail, and proves a lot of Turkey's detractors correct. France must be celebrating this.
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@wraith8323 On paper you'd be correct. In reality, we see today that Russia's military is nowhere near what it has advertised. How many of those fixed-winged aircrafts are actually operable? How many are of the same quality as F-16's let alone more advanced aircraft? How much of Russia's capability are crippled by corruption within Russia's military? Obviously far more than anyone could have possibly imagined. And nuclear capability doesn't matter in terms of regional hegemony; North Korea is hardly a regional hegemon despite having it. It has far more to do with influencing the region they are in. Russia effectively doesn't influence anything outside of the Caucuses and Central Asia. Eastern European influence is a joke at this point.
No, even when looking at this geopolitically, its pure insanity. It's like Poland demanding that Russia surrender Kaliningrad; just because it's within your "interest" to do so, doesn't mean that the cost of simply trying is beyond anything that should be attempted.
Russia does not have the capability to wage total war on Ukraine to begin with. It's economic standing is crumbling and its means to send munitions to the frontlines are shoddy at best. There is a reason they are using civilian trucks to move troops and equipment now. Ultimately though, it's true that Ukraine is outmatched, at least conventionally. Russia will suffer distinctly the more land they take and the insurgency begins. Military superiority on paper, even a MASSIVE superiority still gets hampered by guerilla warfare. Russia is hardly in a comparable state to the US, so it all depends on the Ukrainians. Even if they "lose", they can make sure that Russia suffers far more in victory than it ever could have suffered in a defeat.
Again. Putin specifically denied Ukraine's right to exist as an independent entity. There is no arguing this; he spelled it out for you. This alone makes Russia impossible to deal with geopolitically. All that can be done is punishment; no nation-state can ever give Russia an inch after such a speech. Only the most braindead Kremlinbots can unironically act like Russia is being anywhere close to reasonable here, though I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you didn't watch the speech.
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@XMysticHerox Being a banana republic is a bad thing for the general citizenry, but for military bosses its quite ideal. The troops can be treated like crap and still be influenced to attack and make war with a strong state apparatus backing them and downplaying inter-country faults. European states on the other hand can't avoid such questions, and thus the little funds that do exist for military are expended on soldier care and the like. This is made even worse when when put into PPP; Russia isn't even THAT far behind the US in terms of money put into military. Indeed, Russia is by no means a superpower, but even when combined, in the EU's present state, I don't see it as strong enough to completely resist Russia. Not because Russia is a superpower, but because Russia is an organized state with a sizable military while the EU is at most a collection of states that have neither the will or the might to fully beat back such an assault.
Not that it matters; this conversation is moot with France and Germany unwilling to stand up to Russia to begin with. And I mentioned Germany because while having outdated planes is indeed a massive issue in Russia, we know for a fact that Russia can project power decently far from their borders. Germany and France don't really have that capacity, with France requiring US aid to properly engage in war in West Africa and Libya.
Russia is a threat because there is little actual proof that Europe will band together to stop such an invasion, especially if there its asymmetrical. The USSR is gone, and there is no actual threat to say, France or Germany. But to Poland or Lithuania? While France and Germany flirt for the sake of closer economic ties out of some weird balance of power crap with the US? Yeah, there's much more to be wary of.
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