Comments by "Triple 9" (@Betta66) on "The US-Mexico Deal Was Months Old, But That Doesn't Matter: Here's Why" video.

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  45.  @currymunch6097  Really? John Lott? Fuck that guy. John Lott is documented as having misrepresented data on issues like gun crimes: http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/mythsofmurder.htm In 2018, Florida State Rep. Matt Caldwell said in an interview that a law enforcement officer is more likely to commit a crime than someone with a concealed weapons permit. He never explained what his source was, but it was likely John Lott. You see, in 2015, Lott compared the rate of crimes committed by police nationwide to permit revocations in Texas, Florida and Michigan. The numbers on police crime came from a national search of news reports by a team at Bowling Green State University. Lott took the national data, compared it to the fraction of permit holders in Texas who had their permits revoked, then worked the data several ways and found a substantial gap. He said, "The rate for police was between 7 to 10 times higher than for permit holders." There were just a few issues with his math. Lott's data on crimes by police came from research by Philip Stinson, a criminal justice professor at Bowling Green State University. Stinson was reporting the number of cases, not the number of individual officers involved in crimes. Also, Lott's use of permit revocations to measure crimes by permit holders is questionable. The data undercounts the actual number of infractions. The process is: an infraction occurs, then it's reported to the authorities, who must find it as a crime or infraction that would warrant revocation before said revocation occurs. Lott did the same thing with illegal immigration. There's a category in the Arizona prisoner data set labeled “non-US citizen, deportable.” Lott based his study on the data in this category and assumed that it included only undocumented immigrants. The category actually included a mix of undocumented immigrants and migrants legally present in the United States who became deportable by committing serious offenses while in the country. It includes people who have green cards, temporary work permits, a tourist visa, and it also includes illegal immigrants. It's just not clear how many there are of each, yet Lott wrote in his paper numerous times that the advantage of his study is that he can identify illegal immigrants. He can't. There is a chance he got the data from a study on Arizona's prison population that he was hired to update. In the study, Lott and a co-author don't reach any conclusions about undocumented immigrants and crime, but they found “non-US citizens” accounted for 28.8% of drug sales and trafficking offenses and 2.2% of drug possession offenses. However, these numbers do not distinguish between legal and undocumented immigrants. So basically, your supporting evidence consists of data that doesn't distinguish between legal and illegal immigrants, putting the accuracy of your argument into question. Do illegal immigrants commit drug crimes? Yes. But is it as bad as you're claiming? No.
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