Comments by "Alan Friesen" (@alanfriesen9837) on "Alexander Mercouris" channel.

Johnson Li "it is said LA is going to get independent" Is that Los Angeles or Louisiana?
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@JD-yz4kr Uhh, No.
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Admitting mistakes is a good way to get removed from leadership positions, particularly in a system as fickle as a democracy.
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@antyspi4466 I don't think Beijing fears an insurrection. The CPC has the full faith of the Chinese people and Xi Jinping is solid in the support of the party elite at this time. They're not really worried about secession either. There are secessionist movements in some regions, but they are small. China does worry about terrorism from these groups, but it's more about protecting the population than it is about genuine loss of territory. These things I understand. What I don't understand is why China makes threatening comments towards Taiwan at every election that it has to realize only strengthens the DPP. There are a couple possibilities, the first is that China's leadership is just stupid when it comes to elections. I don't really believe this, but it's an outside possibility. Another possibility is that it's all for domestic consumption. If the Chinese people believed that Xi or the party were ever to reconcile with the idea of letting Taiwan escape, it might undercut their legitimacy, and this may be a way of signalling to the Chinese people that they still are pushing a hard line. A third possibility is that China is confident that it could take Taiwan back militarily, but that they would prefer to do so after the government of Taiwan declared independence because of how that would play internationally, and by having the DPP in office, the odds of getting that justification for action is higher. I don't think China can yet be confident of a military victory, but I'm nobody in particular and I'm not privy to China's or anyone else's actual assessment of the endgame likelihood. Of these three possibilities I lean heavily towards the second, but I'm not real happy with that choice either. Maybe there is another reason I just can't think of, but I'm dead certain that China is not afraid of Taiwan or any of Taiwan's supporters within the country.
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@iamtesting3824 The KMT ruled from Nanjing, and Qiongqing during the war, but I'm being picky.
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@Redbaron9495 Yeah, but I think they (KMT) probably would have done even better if the Chinese rhetoric wasn't so bellicose.
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I think it's the other way around. Blinken is much more of a hawk than Biden.
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Don't worry too much about extending information that was later refuted. Trump is Captain Chaos. No one can be sure which things he says will turn out to match what actually happens.
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Economic sanctions from the west is not blackmail, it's extortion.
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@GETJUSTICE4U "None of this war damage and misery, (for many, but not all) would have happened if the Ukraine army observed the cease fire laid down in the Minsk agreement, and Zalenzki complied with the said agreement." The same thing could be said that if Russia had reconciled itself to being a minor country on the outskirts of Europe that none of this would have happened. Giving up a substantial chunk of territory is not the kind of thing that a country with any self-respect can go along with, and I don't think Ukraine could be reasonably expected to swallow that pill. Likewise, Russia's position watching the tide of NATO sweep up their beaches is also completely understandable if one is not so immersed in western exceptionalism as to be delusional, which, for better or worse, most folks in the United States and Europe seem to be. The ones who could have made this never happen without a substantial loss of dignity were Ukraine's "friends" out here in the West, but that opportunity evaporated eight years ago.
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@frederickstewart3845 I don't know what to make of you're response. I don't understand it.
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@hubewa24 In fairness that's how half the United States have handled the vaccination situation. Unfortunately you need more than half the country on board to effectively fight an epidemic. Half the country cares about people. The other half only cares about business.
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Alexander, thank you for the invitation to text you. Unfortunately I'm such a technophobic embarrassment that I don't know how to accept your invitation. Anyways, if NATO accepted Ukraine into the alliance then that would be a moment of reckoning for NATO. A treaty ally would be at war with Russia. Anything short of an immediate roll-in of all NATO allies would be a breach of treaty. An immediate roll-in of all NATO allies would be the beginning of World War Three. It would also be a pendulum swing in motivation. The biggest problem Russia has now is figuring out how to get enough public support to bring enough manpower in to move forward and hold ground. This is a problem Ukraine doesn't have because they are in a desperate situation, they have public support for anything they can bring to bear. If NATO comes in and they attack Russia directly, then I suspect Russia will be able to get whatever public support they need to throw everything they have against NATO, at least in Ukraine, while NATO members will have to try to convince their populations to throw enough blood and treasure into the conflict to stop the now unleashed bear, and the NATO member most able to fight Russia effectively is the one furthest from the fight. NATO leaders understand this, and they don't want to move any further in that direction, especially if they believe (and I'm not sure they do) that Ukraine can beat Russia without NATO membership.
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"Can the United States defend Taiwan?" I haven't studied the 18 consecutive war games teasing out that scenario to know whether or not they've gamed for a total war scenario where all American assets are in place when hostilities start. I suspect that's not the case. Could that happen? It would have to be a coordinated effort between the U.S. military and the government of Taiwan, getting everything placed as independence is declared. What then? Assuming China takes the bait, something which I doubt would occur, my understanding is that the United States has about a two-to-one advantage in aircraft in the kind of battle (amphibious assault) where air superiority is one of the most critical factors. If China launched its amphibious attack prior to achieving air superiority, they probably would fail. Could China then goad the United States into fighting over the Taiwan straits without launching the amphibious assault? If so the Chinese could slowly grind down the U.S. air forces with a combination of air assets and land based missile artillery. With restraint, however, the United States might be able to hang the threat of air superiority over a potential landing attempt for some time. Of course China could pulverize Taiwan's airfields, ports and other military assets the whole time. And if a carrier were ever sunk, it would be really difficult for the U.S. to show restraint. Then again, where would China's navy hide during all of this? I don't think China is going to attack Taiwan until they know they will likely win, regardless of whether or not Taiwan declares independence. I do think that the ferocity with which they eventually do attack and take Taiwan will depend in part on how much crow they had to eat in the years leading up to the attack. And for this reason I still think it is overwhelmingly in Taiwan's interest (not to mention China's and the United States' interest) to negotiate a peaceful return where Taiwan negotiates to preserve the things they find most dear in their current system while pledging to be a loyal province within the PRC. But who's going to listen to me?
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