Comments by "k98killer" (@k98killer) on "Mark Moss" channel.

  1. You have gotten pretty good at making these presentations.
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  2. Hasn't Harry Dent been a perma bear, predicting stock market crashes nonstop?
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  3. Mark, I really like your videos and the increasing level of quality. You've got a good formula figured out here. Just wanted to give some constructive feedback on a recent zoom meeting: it was too late in the evening -- everyone's caffeine had worn out, making it a sleepy event; it went on a bit too long; and the sales pitch graphics need improvement (I don't begrudge a sales pitch, but the graphics were like what someone would turn in to a teacher trying to skate by with a C grade imo and fell short of the preceding presentation). In hindsight, it was an almost comical sitcom-style scenario, but I do not think that is what you want for those meetings. Earlier time or more coffee; graphics ought to progressively improve throughout to keep attention. If it was a challenge to make sales despite the graphics, it would be interesting to get your observations on the process; else, hopefully this feedback helps with future efforts.
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  4. Wow. The estimates I made from their balance sheet publications was just $80-100B annual loss, but I guess I forgot to include future rate hikes in that projection.
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  5. Quick feedback: I first watched the HF video, then saw this one; in the future, I think you two should record the two segments and then make brief segues for the end of each video pointing to the other which plays after a short transition but before the send-off music. I imagine that there is already a lot of overlap between your audiences, but this could still drive more traffic to each channel rather than relying on happenstance for the viewers of one to find the other.
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  6. It will be obvious in a couple of years.
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  7. Scam Bankster-Fraud lost the title of New JP Morgan to CZ. What an embarrassment.
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  8. The brief outro pointing to video cards was a good decision for getting new viewers to check out the backlog.
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  9. CPI month-over-month number was slightly negative, so proces in aggregate supposedly did come down a fraction of a basis point.
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  10. I think the pain is yet to come because the equity markets are still largely hedged, and hedged markets don't crash -- they slowly grind down instead. Lots of people have seen their puts expire worthless while their positions took 20% hair cuts. My guess is that we won't reach the bottom until everyone has given up and capitulated, and my expectation is that we are far from that. However, if the debt market implodes, and the Fed and other central banks resume using the money bazooka, we'll likely first see Bitcoin and other cryptos go up as a forward indicator of liquidity which would then make its way into stocks.
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  11. Technically, for that one month, the CPI basket did decline by a small fraction of a percent from the previous month. Insofar as CPI is an accurate measure of inflation, then there was 0% inflation for that specific month. The implication that inflation was fixed and over, however, was false, so it was more a lie by contextual structure than anything else.
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  12. There's a decent argument that everything in the dollar system is simply a money substitute.
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  13. Hence the old maxim: not your keys, not your coins. On the other hand, I have a friend who has lost probably dozens of Bitcoins because his toddlers got into a box in his closet and ate his paper wallets back when Bitcoin wasn't worth very much. With the price appreciation, those are some very expensive childhoods.
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  14. Weimar prices were in marks, not dollars.
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  15. I believe Romania experienced the worst hyperinflation in history, but it might have been eclipsed by Lebanon over the past year.
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  16. Global Financial Crisis
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  17.  @1MarkMoss  thanks for making all these videos. This channel is an invaluable resource.
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  18.  @spechund7109  what I described is not Keynesian economics; it is Austrian economics.
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  19.  @spechund7109  the fact remains that my analysis is fundamentally correct. Ludwig von Mises concretely refuted the quantity theory of money in the second part of his book, The Theory of Money and Credit. What matters is not merely a change in the quantity of money but the change in subjective value people place on it as a result of the distributional effects. The bankers can create any amount of monetary units they like in their spreadsheets, but it only matters in how its use and distribution affect the subjective values of economic actors.
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  20.  @spechund7109  have you read it and found a logical flaw, or are you simply dismissing it out of ignorance? And what do you mean by "you people"?
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  21.  @spechund7109  I am not one of those. You make too many assumptions. I am a software engineer who reads and thinks a lot. It was obvious to me in 2020 that CPI would explode, and it was obvious that the "transitive" narrative was nonsense, but it was due to the specific policies creating a bullwhip effect and rising geopolitical tensions/disruptions that really exacerbated things. The M2 growth likely would have had a milder affect on consumer prices if global commerce continued without government interference and lockdowns. If you doubt the bullwhip effect, just look at retail inventory numbers.
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  22.  @spechund7109  the "law of gravity" was replaced with the theory called General Relativity. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. Economics is not a science, which is good for you since you are no scientist. If you really think that Ludwig von Mises is not part of the Austrian school of economics, you might need to spend more time reading and less time embarrassing yourself online.
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  23. A negative nominal interest rate is just nominal demurrage (deposit custody fee) for the most trusted/central/"credit-worthy" counterparty. It is possible for that to be a real yield during deflation.
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  24. Thought experiment: if a global currency system can expand and contract with the population to maintain a stable per-capita currency supply, we would have an elastic currency system that is still a fair and neutral price measurement tool. As the population expands, greater economies of scale are achieved, increasing the per-capita productivity in an exponential way while the currency supply inflates only linearly, so prices would naturally decline while liquidity simultaneously increased. If the population was to decline for some reason, then the exact opposite would occur: the excess liquidity would dry up at the same time that economies of scale are lost, causing prices to rise during a deflationary contraction. If you think about it, these are the exact correct things to do in the scenario and send the exactly correct price signals for the scenarios: in the first, we on average get wealthier, so you can get more goods and services in exchange for less of your savings and labor; in the latter, we on average get poorer, so you get less for more.
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  25.  @keithbrandson6293  No, I specifically meant that new monetary systems very rarely last for very long. If you look at the history of monetary systems, you'll see that most of them last a few years before being replaced. The notable exceptions are commodity currencies, which tend to last long-term as they are an emergent system that naturally arises, and the currencies of major empires, which tend to last for a few hundred years before structural problems with the empire cause a degradation of trust. The Ithaca Hour, for example, had a very short period of widespread use, and it fell apart after its founder moved out of NY. In Austria during the Great Depression, a few towns experimented with paying public servants with expiring scrip, which worked only well enough that they kept tinkering with it until the monetary/economic system restabilized.
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  26. Everything you've ever learned is wrong, but some of it is useful.
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  27. The majority of cryptos are securities, yes, but there are still some digital commodity cryptos besides Bitcoin. Monero and Litecoin come to mind, though they will lose vs BTC in the long run.
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  28. Global Financial Crisis, not "great financial crash". The GFC led to the so-called "Great Recession".
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  29. USD is down 33%* against homes. 1/1.5 = 0.67.
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  30. Vice Piñacolada Hairless will never let this happen.
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  31. But only pro-BLM riots are immune to the sickness. Nobody wants to get sick...
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  32. Solid video and good analysis. Very approachable summary to some nuanced issues. I wonder if it is time to re-examine the Fed's accumulated losses now that they are well in excess of twice their capital and represent a greater than 2% impairment on their liabilities. What do you think?
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  33. Idk about doing that this time. The yen carry trade still has another 60% to unwind.
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  34. Iirc the latest number for thr Swiss dollar swap line was something like $12B.
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  35. It is somewhat disingenuous to just leave it at "discontinued' as if the M1 and M2 metrics are no longer measured. In reality, they switched definitions going back to May 2020, screwing up the M1 chart, and then decreased the measurement/reporting frequency from weekly to just monthly. The new series are M1SL and M2SL.
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  36. Both formats are fine. The digital whiteboard style is rarer and more distinguishing imo, but ultimately the choice should be made based upon how the format affects productivity and viewership. If you have creative ideas for editing non-whiteboard videos, I suggest exploring those before deciding. And if producing videos in both formats appeal to you and neither format has any obvious advantage, then just go with the flow -- as the pep8 Python style guide says, a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds.
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  37. My understanding of that period of history is that the wildcat banks printed up banknotes to buy US war debt to fund the highly unpopular War of 1812, and that was one of the main reasons that the banks were unstable.
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  38. The Fed is probably going to raise rates by the end of the year. They are dropping hints, e.g. Yellen the other day. Eventually, they'll stop walking back their statements so quickly -- it's incrementalism -- they are trying to condition people to expect rate hikes without telling them they are hiking rates.
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  39. Technically, the interest rate is not the price of money. The history of hyperinflations proves this: as the supply of something tends toward infinity, the price tends to zero; but during hyperinflation, while the supply of currency tends toward infinity, interest rates skyrocket rather than fall; thus, interest is not the price of money.
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  40. Why is Nevada King being marketed so hard right now? Price action looks like some whale trying to unload shares into social media hype, or perhaps it is just an attempt to get the junior buyout narrative into the collective unconscious. At any rate, if this was an undisclosed sponsorship, Mark could get into a lot of trouble.
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  41. Burying the link in the description probably does not count as clear enough, but the SEC is pretty toothless these days, so I guess the only people who have to worry are those who do not read the disclaimer. https://go.1markmoss.com/disclaimer "MMG has been compensated and its employees and affiliates may own stock that they have purchased in the open market either prior, during, or after the release of the companies [sic] profile which is an inherent conflict of interest in MMG statements and opinions and such statements and opinions cannot be considered independent." Policy is that they won't sell until 4 weeks after promotion of the stock ends. Idk about other youtubers shilling the company.
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  42. The GDP growth explosion also corresponded to the opening of a post-war, global oil trade.
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  43. The interest rate is not the price of money. If it was, then it would approach 0% during high/hyperinflation since the price of something is inversely proportional to its abundance. History has shown that does not happen, therefore interest is not the price of money.
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  44. Most beef is already from clones.
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  45. Technically, ancient Mesopotamia had banking systems and credit based money. The Code of Hammurabi explicitly regulates banks.
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  46. There's also the fact of the GSM threatening crop growth and destabilizing the climate. It's worth noting that most cattle pastures are unsuitable for growing human-edible plants, so it is actually more efficient to grow meat in those places.
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  47. Damn, lots of bot-vs-bot action in these comments.
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  48. @Proud81Mama dreams tend to be symbolic, though occasionally specific images leak into dreams from our future experiences (or perhaps they leak from the dreams into future reality; not sure which is the weirder model).
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  49. 2019 was quantitative tightening, not tapering. Tapering was where the rate of QE/asset purchases decreased.
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  50. Quantum computers will eventually break all cryptocurrencies that use an elliptic curve. So this Mark of the Fed system is doomed to eventually fail. The only thing that can't be hacked in a cashless world is real money, i.e. gold and silver.
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