Comments by "Nicholas Conder" (@nicholasconder4703) on "Good Times Bad Times"
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I know. I had high hopes for China when they had Deng Xiaoping and Hu Jintao in power. They seemed to understand that the path to greatness wasn't military power or threatening your neighbors, but rather developing a proper market economy and integrating into the global economy. Rather then trying to be the biggest bully on the block, it was better to make everyone need you and be dependent on your products. You military was only there to protect your country, not invade others. Xi, on the other hand, is only interested in power and domination, and is leading China down a dark path that they didn't need to follow. It also shows that both Deng and Hu cared about the citizenry, but Xi cares only about his status on the world stage.
Same with Russia. I had high hopes when the USSR collapsed, but started to have concerns when the Georgia war started. When Russia invaded Crimea, I immediately saw that Putin wanted to recreate the USSR (or more to the point, a Russian Empire covering the former territory covered by the USSR and Warsaw Pact).
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Funny thing is that, as a 15-year-old back in 1975, I predicted the collapse of the USSR based simply on the fact that Communism was a bankrupt economic system. Indeed, I even predicted it would occur in the 1990s because that would be when the first of the post-WW2 generation politicians would take power. These people would lack the revolutionary fervor of their predecessors, try to fix the system, and cause it to fail. And this is what happened.
What will happen this time? That depends. I think the biggest wild card in all this will be the same one as in 1917 - the army. If the army stays united behind its commanders, then whoever gains their support will likely come out on top. If the army splinters, I foresee a nasty civil war occurring as various groups and factions vie for power. I also suspect there will be at least one wave of purges as the new leaders take control. Again, like 1917, if the St. Petersburg-Moscow region remains as one unit, it contains the largest cohesive population block and should wind up controlling what remains. The question then comes down to whether some of the Oblasts try to join Finland, Georgia or some of the other surrounding nations rather than remain part of Russia. If the central authority completely collapses, it will be a real mess.
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