Comments by "Terje Oseberg" (@terjeoseberg990) on "CNBC Television"
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Well, Musk did say, "considering". I think that means that he's just thinking about it. So, whether funding was secured or not, it's just something he's, "considering". In other words, he wasn't serious about it, but might become serous about it.
I believe the stock went up because of the news about the Saudis buying 5% of Tesla on the open market and has nothing to do with Musk's tweet. And now it's going down because of the SEC investigation. So, if anything, it's the SEC that has influenced the stock price, not Musk's tweet.
Maybe the SEC should be investigated for stock manipulation.
My theory could easily be proven by checking the time of Musk's tweet and the timing of the news about the Saudis and when the stock first started going up.
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Alexander Hamilton, I think what's happening is that they're seeing these very wealthy "successful" people on the media talking about how shorting Tesla is a good idea. People like Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel, and Steve Eisman. They believe the nonsense that these people are spewing without fully understanding any of it and they're jumping on the bandwagon and shorting the stock themselves. When enough of these people short the stock at once, it does cause a dip in the stock price. But what really makes it volatile is when the stock goes up, these people get scared and buy. The stock price then overshoots it's target, and then Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel, and Steve Eisman short some more shares at the overinflated price caused by all the smaller shorts. Then, after the stock price normalizes, and the stock drops on some bad news, those three and a few more secretly buy back their positions and wait for some more good news. All the little guys are getting played and they don't even know it. So they blame their losses on Musk. Then they get all pissed off and hate Tesla and Musk. When really they should hate Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel, and Steve Eisman for manipulating them into making a very risky investment.
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Frank Speaking, I'm pretty good at fixing cars, and most everyone who knows me knows this. Therefor I've had the opportunity to buy cars with very few problems for very cheap.
The first was a friend's girlfriend's car. She wanted to trade it in for another car because it was having some issues. The dealer told her she needed a new battery, a new alternator and many other things that I can't remember. It amounted to $3,000 worth of work. She wanted to trade it in so they offered her $300 for it.
So my friend calls me and tells me that they offered her $300 for her car and that I should go look at it. I went and looked, and it was a pretty nice little car, so I bought it for $500. I drove straight to Kragen Auto Parts and bought a new alternator, battery, and a whole bunch of other stuff to "repair" this car.
When I got home and started working on it, I noticed that the drivers door was a bit crooked, so the door didn't shut right. It wasn't pushing the button that turns off the light so the light was draining the battery. I straightened the door and couldn't find any other problems with the car. A few days later I returned all the crap I had bought to "repair" the car and continued to drive that car for about 5 years with no other repairs until I was rear ended and had to toss the car.
So basically they wanted $3000 to unloosen the door hinges, straighten the door, then retighten them.
Another time a guy at work in the cube next to me told me nearly the same story about his Saturn SL2. The dealer wanted $3000 in repairs and had offered his brother $350 for the car. His brother was upset with the dealer and didn't want to sell them the car for $350. When the guy described the problem to me, I told him that he needed a new coolant temperature sensor. It costs $20 and takes about 5 minutes to replace. My girlfriend at the time had the same car and it had the same problem, so I know what I was talking about.
So, this guy called his brother to tell him and his brother decided that he didn't want to bother with it, but also didn't want to sell the car to the dealer. He said he would sell it to me for $350, so I went and bought it, changed the sensor, and never repaired another thing on the car.
Both of these cars were the result of two different dealers trying to pull the same scam on two different people who wouldn't have any of it and would rather give me a good deal than some assholes at a dealership.
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I also keep seeing this bogus claim that it will cost $70 billion for "the buyout". When did Musk ever say anything about a buyout? He didn't. He said that all current shareholders will have the opportunity to maintain their investment in Tesla. So how many are actually going to sell? Well, we know for a fact that Musk isn't going to sell his 20% because he said so.
Musk said that he estimates that 2/3rd of current shareholders will keep their shares. Well, there are about 170 million outstanding shares. And there are 35 million shares sold short. That means that there are 205 million shares owned by someone. (The short sellers sold their shorts to someone who believes that they own their shares, right?)
So, 2/3 of 205 million is about 136.7 million shares that won't be sold and 68.3 million that have to be bought. Well, 35 million of those will have to be bought by the short sellers who will be forced to buy them back, right? That leaves only 33.3 million shares that need to be bought to complete the transaction. That amounts to $14 billion, not the $70 billion that people keep claiming. So, why do they keep claiming that this is a $70 billion deal when it's not? And that this will be the biggest deal in history and nobody has that kind of money.
I did the same calculation for 25% selling instead of 1/3 and I come up with $6.825 billion required to complete the transaction.
If 1/5 of the shareholders sell, it'll cost $2.52 billion.
if 1/6 of the shareholders sell, then, well 1/6 is less than 35 million so there will still be $350 million of shorted stocks. I guess 833,000 shares won't be able to be converted to the fund. That means that it's actually possible that it's impossible for everyone who wants to will be able to keep their shares. If that happens, how will they pick who doesn't get to keep their shares? Will Tesla issue 833,000 new shares so that everyone can keep them? That would raise $350 million. To be fair, that's what I believe that Tesla should do in the event that not enough people want to sell.
So, it's actually possible that Tesla need no funding to take Tesla private and it's even possible that the only way they can be fair is to issue more shares so everyone can keep their investment in Tesla.
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