Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "China Update" channel.

  1. The fact that Prof. Zhang Jun's interview has been allowed to be published is also notable. It is published in GuanCha, a Shanghai-based publication, and thus, somewhat far from the centre of political power, and instead in the centre of economic and financial power (with a libertarian streak). It is not the first time in history that dissenters have been blocked from Beijing and resorted to speak in Guangzhou or Shanghai instead: Sun Zhongshan (Sun Yatsen) in Guangzhou springs to mind. Shanghai was where Mao and his collaborators were able to publish articles (specifically in Liberation Daily) that started the Cultural Revolution, after Beijing publications declined to publish them. This all could be a sign that among the elite there is some growing dissent regarding the official economic path. And it is not impossible that the Shanghai-based dissenters have some backing in the Central Committee. (This is just speculation, though).
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  2. "Maintaining the stability of global supply chains". Translation: We want the supply chains to stay with us.
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  3. Hey Tony, please consider for the next several episodes to give us a small bio for each of the new Standing Committee members, incl. educational and career background. It would be nice to know how many are economists and how many are engineers.
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  4. Wow, only an hour after posting the video there are so many 'investment' spammers in the comments. And what is this 'AMZ11VR' they're promoting? Ah, a quick Google search says it is some kind of crypto-scam. Not very surprising.
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  5. This flurry of cultural, business and diplomatic exchange is straight out of the Chinese playbook. Many viewers have probably heard of 'ping pong diplomacy' or 'panda diplomacy' in China's relations with foreign countries. When China feels a bit weak, they roll out the red carpet, and when they feel strong again, they put on the boxing gloves. It's weird behavior, in my opinion, but it is something you can even see in Chinese society: A small time businessman will lick your boots and take you to dinner, but once he gets rich, he often becomes arrogant and condescending toward others. I suppose it has to do with the very strong belief in hierarchy in traditional Chinese society: The strong do what they want, the weak suffer what they must.
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  6. The gaming crackdown appears to be an important part of Xi's philosophy around 'economic development': Xi wants to advance 'the real economy', i.e. physical products that you can export or build, or which can tangibly improve people's lives, like a shovel, or a railway, or a woolen sweater. The online economy seems 'unreal' to Xi, or fake, or empty. This is the case with gaming, social media, streaming, etc. Frankly, I think it smells of 'old man yelling at cloud', not least because the online industries combined generate trillions of dollars every year globally.
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  7. Once a state starts micro-managing the economy, 'Common Prosperity' begins the long decline to 'Common Poverty'.
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  8. Re. "Foreign forces": There were several protesters holding up white sheets of paper upon which they had written 'Foreign Forces'. I took this to be a sarcastic jab at government propaganda, but apparently the ambassador to France interpreted it as 'evidence'. I can't imagine what other evidence he was referring to.
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  9. I just extended my apartment lease with my Shanghainese landlord. Normally, I extend for two years at a time, but he said "Let's just do one year this time, in case something happens". I didn't ask what he meant, but it is an anecdotal indication that Chinese people may be getting a little worried about the future.
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  10. ASML: "If they cannot get those machines, they will develop them themselves". They would anyway, regardless of whether they can buy them or not. This is a clearly stated objective of China's government: To develop the capability to design and fabricate advanced chips. Another example is advanced turbo-jet engines: They can buy them from Russia or from the West, and yet, they are doing all they can to learn how to build them themselves. But will is one thing, ability is quite another. Nobody who is watching these videos will ever be able to run as fast as Usain Bolt, no matter how deep their desire is.
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  11. I think the US is much better positioned to place restrictions on Chinese imports than the EU. Germany, especially, relies heavily on exports to China and they worry about retaliatory measures by China. But in the end, restrictions will probably happen. If both France and Germany feel their industrial base is threatened by Chinese imports, they will have to take action, even if it hurts. Many smaller EU economies are less threatened by Chinese imports, but they will most likely follow along, as the economic health of the EU takes priority.
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  12. I can attest to Shanghai seemingly improving. Lots of restaurants and shops were closed or had limited opening hours in the 2nd half of December, but now they appear to all be open again. The city is looking more and more like its old self.
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  13. I saw the 'order to stop the spread' circulating on local chat groups. If it was as easy as just ordering officials to stop the virus, surely they would have done that on day one.
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  14. I feel bad for those graduates. When I graduated in the 90s, there was also widespread unemployment within my sector. I can be a tough pill to swallow.
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  15. As someone who has lived in China for almost 3 decades and following local media, I can say that there has never been a shortage of opinion pieces and articles critical of/hateful toward Japan, USA, and the west in general. That includes smear pieces of foreign companies operating in China. Back in Jiang Zemin's days, there was even a big government orchestrated campaign against 'cultural pollution', i.e. western culture. I am quite confident this didn't start when I arrived in the mid-90s, but has been going on since 1949. Just before 1949, Mao was interviewed by foreign journalists where he was asked if China would be friendly to the West or side with the Soviets. "We are going to lean to one side", he said, and that's what they've been doing ever since. This is unlikely to change in the future.
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  16. I also once knew a person from the PLA. She said the same thing: PLA personnel are not allowed to travel abroad.
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  17. From Shanghai: My residential community was put under lock-down this morning before 6:00 AM. As is par for the course, this happened without warning. No one can leave or enter for at least 48 hours, but we can order food online for delivery. It's the first time I experience this, and I admit I already find it very annoying. I saw an ambulance come to take somebody away, but as there is a large number of old people in this community, it could have been for another health reason (there are so many old people in this community that ambulances show up a couple of times per month on average).
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  18. I think property sales will probably continue to decline by 30% over the next few years. I believe there will continue to be demand for around 4 million apartments annually, down from 10 million annually through the 2010s. In the 2030s, that may drop to 3 million annually.
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  19. Shanghai Lock-down: I'm on the Puxi side and tried to go out today to stock up on food. People are hoarding, shelves are practically empty, especially veggies are hard to find. I did get some spaghetti and canned tuna. I'm going to try Carrefour tomorrow. Fingers crossed!
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  20. I just had dinner here in Shanghai in a small restaurant. So small that people have to share a table with strangers. I met a young, local couple, both working in finance. I asked the guy if he thought the market had hit bottom, and he said that in his company, consensus is that the outlook is negative for the remainder of this year. We also touched on trade and I mentioned that Europe and the US are very concerned about Chinese over capacity and cheap products threatening the west's industrial base. They didn't say much, but both nodded thoughtfully, as in they understood the predicament we're all in. It's going to be tough times moving forward. (Most of our conversation was about travel and food. You gotta lift the mood sometimes.)
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  21. Apparently, during the short (less than 100 years) Yuan Dynasty, some Mongolian leaders suggested exterminating the entire Chinese population, but it was deemed more valuable to keep them alive for agricultural production. Ancient history was pretty cruel.
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  22. Infrastructure projects I would like to see (as a resident of China), but which probably won't happen: -More bicycle paths -Dig wires and cables underground -Renovate older housing with insulation for energy conservation -More wind and solar power (though they are already in the process of massive green energy build-out) -Make cities more pedestrian friendly -More nuclear energy plants (this one IS likely to happen) -Sleeper trains on more high-speed tracks
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  23. Pretty astute observation.
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  24. Great work as usual, Tony! I would love to see a video where you break down all the stimulus done so far this year, incl. from central and local govts.
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  25. Shanghai, Puxi: My community got locked down at 1 PM today. They had found a positive case inside so we're starting 2 days early. Nobody could say exactly what the situation will be going forward, but one guy told me it could be a 14-day lock-down. I only prepared food for 4-6 days, so after that it'll be a 'Communist Fast' (a government orchestrated, but unintentional famine). Maybe I'll publish the results in a lifestyle/wellness magazine.
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  26. I'm not surprised travel numbers are up so much for this May day holiday. Remember, a year ago all of Shanghai couldn't even go out into the street and lots of other parts of China was in semi lockdown. Additionally, those who were allowed to travel were afraid they would get caught up in an outbreak somewhere, leading to a sudden quarantine.
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  27. There are still lots of elderly people in China who use cash exclusively. Many of them find it hard to grapple with modern technology. Younger people, like Tony (and myself), tend to only use electronic payments.
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  28. "Apologies, there's some construction near my room". This comment brings a smile to my face. Urban life in China has been like this for over 25 years: There's always construction nearby.
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  29. Hello from Shanghai. I was given an 'exit pass' Friday (May 20) and additionally, two 'entry passes' to two out of three supermarkets that are open in my area. It was great to get out for the first time in months. The line for the better supermarket was an hour long, but it was worth it. I got most of what I needed. From now on, I should be able to go out when I want, though we're advised that exiting the community should be for necessary purposes only, such a buying food. Still, though, almost nothing is open. On my street everything is closed.
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  30. Ok, it's 10:21 PM here in Shanghai, 9 minutes to Pelosi's estimated arrival in Taiwan. But I'm going to sleep now, so if WW3 starts, at least I will die in the midst of sweet dreams.
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  31. That's a wonderful group photo of New Zealand's population in the video opening.
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  32. Hello from Shanghai. This is just from my local neighborhood: Local vegetable market has been closed for several days, but most shops and restaurants are open. McD's only allows pick-up. Last night people in hazmat suits banged on my door and then handed out self-testing kits; first time I've tried that. My community is open. Streets look normal. Delivery of packages and food only to community main gate.
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  33. The President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Jin Liqun is the father of the economist Keyu Jin who has recently been making the rounds in a western media tour to promote her book "The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism". I haven't read the book, but in most interviews she makes the case that essentially everything is fine in China and it is still the best place to invest.
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  34. Confucius: "The laborer must obey his master." Marx: "Workers should rise up and overthrow the capitalist class." Xi: "See? Your ideas are totally compatible."
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  35. People should go to SCMP and read the whole interview with Richard Koo. It's a good one.
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  36. Great issue. Always nice to hear the opinions of Singapore's leaders.
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  37. We already have a high-speed railway line going Shanghai-Jiangsu-Anhui (Hefei). I've traveled on this twice. According to China Daily, the new line will go Shanghai-Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou-Zhenjiang-Nanjing. Not much different from the other one.
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  38. Housing price drop of 0.02%. In downtown Shanghai housing prices are around RMB 100,000/sqm, so they dropped RMB 20 to RMB 99,980/sqm. Even Chinese people, who normally cannot resist a discount, probably won't get too excited about such a small drop.
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  39. Amazing that Shimao is at risk of being delisted. Shimao is a very famous developer based in Shanghai and is responsible for several of Shanghai's most iconic building projects, incl. Shimao Riverside, a residential development completed around 2000 and back then seen as one of China's most prestigious residential communities. Also Shimao Plaza right on Nanjing Rd. with the Royal Meridien Hotel. Perhaps a kind of Chinese Icarus, who flew too close to the sun.
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  40. Apparently, 40% of BMW's global (ex. Germany) sales are in China. They do love to show off prestigious cars, those Chinese. And it's understandable that BMW and others don't want to lose that market. However, Chinese people have a great desire for 'face giving' luxury products and, barring a total embargo, will likely do whatever necessary to get their hands on high-end goods from the West, even if relations sour somewhat. Remember how Chinese people were burning their Nike shoes because of the Xinjiang issue? Turns out in the grand scheme of things, Nike's China sales were not affected at all. We can decouple, just do it slowly. Besides, China has been on the path of decoupling for years. They make sure they source their resources from a multitude of countries. Nothing wrong with that.
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  41. I met* Chuck Schumer in China once. It was in 2006 in Shanghai. He and Lindsay Graham were on a little bi-partisan senator tour of China, trying to gauge support for a proposal the two of them had fielded together: A 24% tariff on all imported goods from China. I repeat, this was in 2006!! At the time, both I and most foreign people in China thought this was an totally insane idea. This was at the height of globalization and outsourcing to China. Outsourcing seemed like THE future. Schumer's goal was protecting American workers; Graham's goal was containing China. The proposal never went anywhere. But that was a different age. *When I write I met him, I mean we just shook hands. We didn't buy each other rounds of beers.
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  42. Yes, Wang Yi is back in the Foreign Minister seat, but I don't think there has been any mention of Qin Gang's name. There were also some minor shuffles in Hong Kong.
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  43. Re. Decline in marriages: We shouldn't put too much into these figures, because number of marriages is to a large extent decided by how many young women are 'available' for marriage. From 2010-2015, approximately 12 million women reached prime marriage age every year (age 26-27). Now we have reached a period where relatively fewer women reach that age; only around 7.5 million women reach age 26-27 this year. That number will continue to decrease over the next several years until 2029, when only 6.5 million women will reach prime marriage age. After that, the number will increase again to 9 million in 2039, but then it will decline precipitously far into the future.
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  44. I used to quote Party slogans to my Shanghainese friends and ask them which ones they liked best. They looked at me like I was crazy and said "Peter, nobody pays attention to these slogans and nobody cares what they say".
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  45. I was a little surprised, too, but it is likely because a very large percentage of private enterprises are made up of small factories in the interior, small retail businesses, and restaurants. Those enterprises tend to employ mostly rural employees with low educational attainment. State-owned enterprises and government organs tend to hire better educated people. Those who work in large and famous private enterprises, like Alibaba, Tencent, Lenovo, BYD, etc., probably have a much higher salary, but they are, after all, only a small minority of the labor pool.
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  46. Re. the comedian Li: His fate puts our western debate about 'cancel culture' somewhat into perspective.
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  47. Question for those who are economically literate: If China invests $3.15 trillion into an $18 trillion economy (which is over 17%), does that automatically mean GDP will grow by 17%? That seems like an extreme growth rate, even for China. In fact, it seems like someone made a typo and added an extra zero somewhere.
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  48. Government: "China refuses to lie flat during this pandemic. Therefore we must insist that you stay at home on your couch!"
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  49. As long as your audience is non-Chinese, you use a non-Chinese platform, and you report in English, you can say quite a lot in China. If he were to start posting his reports on a Chinese platform, it would be a very different matter.
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  50. "Race Weapons": While there are some ailments (not necessarily viruses, toxins or bacteria) that are more prevalent in certain races and ethnicities, that is a far cry from even contemplating a 'bio weapon' that targets one specific race while excluding everyone else. There has never been any disease that only affects one race or ethnicity, and it's hard to imagine such a disease could even be possible. We're just too similar for that to be possible. At the most extreme, you might be able to make a 'bio weapon' that turns all East Asians blonde and blue eyed, hahaha.
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