Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "China Update" channel.

  1.  @rh906  Since they also have a lot of hydro power, they use the reservoirs as energy storage.
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  2.  @StephenGillie  Yes, but the Chinese prefer it. My friends say they enjoy picking the meat off the bone using lips, tongue, teeth. To them, it's an added pleasure of eating.
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  3. Thanks for the update. Let's see what happens.
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  4.  @mbak7801  You mean worldwide, or only in China? It seems like a high number.
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  5.  @gtw4546  They're not useless. They're less effective, but still provide good protection against serious illness and death.
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  6. "Socialized stimulus" seems to me to be the right path to take. Send the money to local governments, put them in restricted accounts, use the funds only to pay subcontractors to finish the sold apartments and let the buyers move in. Then send the bill to the developers. At least this should help with social stability. Perhaps local governments can take shares in the property developers until (if ever) they can pay back. It's not going to do much for the overall economy, but I'm not sure anything will at this stage.
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  7. The Indian news channel Firstpost covers the fighting fairly closely: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EUXX-QFWMg&t=212s . After all, India is right next door, so it's only natural they pay more attention.
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  8.  @michaelrusso8466  "should have been". Don't look back, look ahead.
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  9. Yes, it's not a legally binding agreement, but those who break it might get shamed in the media.
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  10. "how can China claim a positive GDP". That's easy: Just pump more stimulus into the economy. Of course that has to be repaid some day, but so far they're happy to kick the can down the road.
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  11. They're everywhere.
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  12.  @charliezhu674  Thanks, Charlie. We're almost getting used to this strange life down here. A lot of time is spent looking through WeChat groups to find the right food to buy. Today, I got bacon from a bacon-group, and milk from a milk-group. I'm also waiting for vegetables, cooking oil and a 三黄鸡 chicken (Shanghai specialty).
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  13.  @AnotherPointOfView944  I'm in China. Nevertheless, it's now next morning and I'm still alive.
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  14.  @Leshic2  That's an interesting point, but fabs that make even relatively low end chips need a very large initial investment. I think we would have heard if Cambodia had built a fab. Or maybe not, maybe you're right.
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  15. and he doesn't appear to know Kung Fu.
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  16. Peter Zeihan is best viewed as entertainment. He is deliberately sensationalist for clicks, and much of his source material is sketchy at best. Slow, gradual decline is much more likely. In 2050 China will probably still be a formidable adversary.
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  17.  @harmless6813  But those businesses don't consider China their enemy. You could even say that they have neither enemies nor friends, only suppliers and customers. Remember, they are businesses, not countries.
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  18.  @harmless6813  I would say the only 'enemies' of businesses are competitors and government regulators. If it wasn't considered immoral by society at large, or outright illegal, most western businesses would be happy to trade with Iran, North Korea, Russia, or Syria.
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  19.  @AndyKing1000  I think it's possible to get baby milk formula and other necessities, but coffee and other imported goods are not considered necessities. We have been asked to refrain from ordering unnecessary goods like wine and alcohol, juice, cake, etc. because the few delivery personnel available should be reserved for necessary goods only. But people order these things, anyway. I was lucky to get my hands on cigarettes today, though, because a tobacco shop owner lives in the community and he had a stash on hand. I felt like hitting the jackpot!
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  20.  @AndyKing1000  Thanks for your advice, which I will not follow.
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  21. "US consumer debt has risen to a new height of $17.8 trillion". One man's debt is another man's investment opportunity. China has invested $800 billion in US debt and is getting returns of 4-5% annually ($30-40 billion). China is very thankful to the US consumer.
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  22. Why does 10 trillion mean 15 trillion?
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  23.  @ErikGaming3700  Now, none. I'm referring to last year.
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  24.  @TheFirebird123456  And there are many young, professional women in those big cities who prefer to enjoy their lives, rather than become a mom.
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  25.  @tonysu8860  Yes, sounds plausible, especially if 'green tech' is included in high tech. There is a continued effort to build out solar and wind capacity, and the EV industry has grown a lot in recent years.
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  26.  @davidradtke160  Yes, that is the question. Another question is why someone would put out the number -10% with no supporting evidence. Are we just making up our own numbers here?
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  27. If you don't agree that China should be free to do whatever it wants, wherever it wants, you are 'Suppressing China'.
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  28. Hello from Shanghai. Someone sent a drone out during our lockdown to shoot scenes of our 25-million-person post-apocalyptic street scape. Whether you have visited Shanghai or not, I think you can appreciate the eerie feeling: https://youtu.be/XeUoApHh2q4
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  29. If I were Bytedance, I would try to get as much money out of a sale as possible, but I would also announce that the algorithm that comes with the sale will be an older version. I would not want to sell my latest version of that algorithm. The new owners can then tinker with it as they like. Of course it's an open question whether the Chinese government will even allow a sale. They may very well not, leading to TokTok's demise (but a continuation of the Chinese version, DouYin).
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  30. Biden's comment is probably meant more for domestic consumption, to give Americans the impression that things are going well under Biden. It's election season, after all. To cut through the media clutter, a presidential candidate often has to sound more bombastic; just listen to how Trump sounds. More drama = more attention.
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  31. People who think China might suddenly collapse don't really understand China, or the wider East Asia region in general. These societies put a premium on social, political and economic stability. China in particular is not a free market economy, but a highly managed one. The govt. simply won't allow any sudden movements. Instead, we're much more likely to see a Japan-style slowdown and stagnation. By the end of this decade, China's annual growth could be as low as 2-3%.
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  32.  @alanparsonsfan  Yes, there are a host of different reasons for the declining marriage rate. So I've lived in China for several decades and what I see more and more (in urban settings) is a female wish for self-realization as opposed to immediate motherhood, couples are more willing to live together without getting married, and the general increase in the 'single lifestyle' that we also see in the west.
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  33. Now that iPhones get banned in the government, I wonder how long it will take before Huawei's top level management also stop using iPhones, hahahaha.
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  34. 2:55 (The Yuan) "Crossing the psychologically important USD7.- threshold". That should be "Crossing the psychologically important CNY 7.- threshold" (for every USD).
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  35. The last 20 second clip looks like it could have been taped in yesterday's Shanghai, with its cold, rainy, windy, grey weather.
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  36.  @ChinaUpdate  Have a good time in NZ. You deserve it!
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  37. Why? It is the world's second largest economy. Or are you claiming it's the largest? 3rd largest? 4th?
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  38.  @cooldudecs  People say China lies on their statistics. Ok, so if that is the case, what are the real numbers? What data should we rely on instead? Are there any authoritative data in existence? Or are we just going to put a number on the table that we pulled out of our ass? There are lots of economists who caution us not to believe Chinese data too much, but you will notice they never present other data, because there aren't any. It's like asking a lady her age. We may not believe her to tell the truth, but we have nothing else to base any number on.
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  39.  @jamesdallas1493  I don't know, but various international institutions indicate $19-20 trillion. We don't have to believe them, but who else should we believe? And why should we believe the numbers Mexico put forward, or Thailand? In the end, you have to go with the numbers you have, not the numbers you would like to be true.
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  40.  @Jaysqualityparts  "Now they lie so much I’m going with Japan or South Korea." Based on what? Fantasy?
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  41.  @Jaysqualityparts  "young college graduates in China have over a 50% unemployment rate." Yes, those are official numbers and known to all. But A) Why do you believe those statistics and not the others? B) How do those youth unemployment numbers indicate that China's GDP is lower than that of Japan? Your argument seems rooted in believing only the numbers that agree with your prior position, and dismissing the numbers that are counter to your prior position. That's not serious.
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  42.  @Jaysqualityparts  I know all these data. They are publicly available. My question is: What calculations do you use to get at your conclusion? I posit that you simply pull numbers out of your ass. Like every other China observer, I am skeptical of the official figures, but being skeptical doesn't mean you can just make up your own numbers.
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  43. Ok, maybe the thumbnails are becoming a little too dystopian. I understand it generates interest, but let's try to keep cool heads.
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  44.  @jaydee6268  I wouldn't know.
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  45. "History shows regime collapses almost always follow a similar arc, not unlike stock market crashes". Could you give just a couple of examples of 'regime collapses' that happened as you describe? If 'history shows', there should be at least several examples to pick.
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  46.  @stantheman9072  Well, I obviously disagree with Obama's former secretary of defense on that issue. Biden's work on fostering greater cohesion among friends of the US has been very good. The setting up of AUKUS and development of the Quad, his stance on Russia and China are the right way to go, in my opinion.
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  47.  @stantheman9072  Thanks for sharing your view.
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  48. Exactly my thought. "USA backstabbing our motherland again".
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  49. 'Pumping up to CNY 10 trillion into the economy'. In 2023, the US had a fiscal deficit of $1.7 trillion, adding up to 6.2% of GDP. 10 Trillion CNY would be 7.9% of China's GDP. Of course, China is not as wealthy as the US, so such a high fiscal deficit is a more precarious position to put yourself in.
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  50.  @Defective1313  "Yellen's actions will have made the Chinese think of her as less deserving of their respect." That's very possible, but geopolitics does not depend on personal respect, it depends on the power and resources of each country. Whether Chinese officials have respect for American officials or not is (almost) irrelevant, because any particular decision can be made in both cases: You respect me, I'm going to charge you $5 for a cup of coffee. You don't respect me, I'm still going to charge you $5 for a cup of coffee.
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