Comments by "Jeffrey Deuitch" (@jeffreydeuitch2146) on "Michael Bordenaro" channel.

  1. You dont need subprime to have foreclosures. Once value drops way below loan balance, many will lose interest in making payments and ride out for couple years until foreclosed. Taxes do not drop proportional to value drop and insurance rates are high and generally dont drop unless petitioned so hold costs remain high. If income or employment drop, the decision gets made. Cash buyers bail to recoup as much as possible. It's so obvious and rooted in history.
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  2. Not to mention the cost of replacement of batteries when they fail. One popular model is about $16,000 to replace the batteries. Some who bought a used EV have learned this absolutely the hard way!
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  3. Great video as always. Watched a couple of vintage episodes of Miami Vice this past weekend. Your videos are reminiscent of those episodes and you really do resemble Don Johnson as Crockett. You need to do a collab with someone who looks like Tubbs. That would be surreal and plug in some background music from Jan Hammer! Retro.
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  4. People would be shocked if they would realize how much of first few years payments go to nearly all interest and how little applies to principal. When you refinance, as Michael states, you are back to beginning of the amortization schedule and hence much higher proportion going to interest once again. The results in extremely high rate of interest if house sells in first few years. The things people dont understand!
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  5. Yes, but HOAs also put rules that for many seem draconian. If you are not compatible with LOTS of rules, don't by into an association. Want to plant a fruit tree? Well, proposed at one meeting then take some months prior to get "approvals" it's a double edged sword and can slice your own living preferences. Many learn this the hard way.
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  6. Yes, but the balance is made by the 800k value of the lot.
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  7. Good luck with the refinance deal if values should drop. Great to bring up the refinance hazards and hope viewers will recognize the Captain Obvious moment. Glad you are helping people to understand the hazards.
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  8. Another 3 months and the YOY will be compared to last June and everybody will wonder how this read can be so high. Strange so many do not understand very basic math. Will be large if prices stay stable for next 3 months. If there are price reductions between now and then the negative YOY will be much larger. Not a difficult concept to grasp. Will hit mainstream media pretty hard and may trigger sentiment change but remains to be seen.
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  9. Imagine if genuine unemployment increases occur. There appears to be a rapidly tightening noose out there. Really feel for the young folks starting out. Have a son who is starting grad school in July. Finance major. I hope he will be able to consider home ownership at a reasonable young age. A big downturn will be the only salvation for a whole genetation of young people.
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  10. To buy at the court house steps, figuratively speaking of course, better have lots of assumptions for repairs in your bid. Also best be aware if the foreclosing property is a second position holder or other liens. Back to 06 or early 07, early foreclosures sold at very high prices. Falling knife just like buying at open market too early in the downturn. Yes, concrete in toilets and sinks occurred as well as removed appliances, stolen condensers, well pumps, removed granite tops, boxing matches with drywall, and other sabotages were common and repairs can be xexpensive. Be careful
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  11. When you buy into any kind of association you need to know all the rules and obligations. They can be numerous.
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  12. For all the MLS searches I am doing, I am definitely seeing a rising proportion of active listing to pendings. This a definite evolving trend in Sarasota Manatee county area. Naturally this corresponds to rise in the monthly housing supply metric. I do not recall seeing this at same time last year. Also many "flips" for break even which means loss after closing costs. I do not think that this is a blip. Also DOMs appear to be rising on average.
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  13.  @hvaball150  yes, and more keys get turned in if value and equity drop.
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  14. When early YOY references start to show negative, they will fall back the Case Shiller which lags 2 months from closing which means about 3 months from contract date and hence when the agreement in price was made. Once CS shows negative, the narrative will shift and masses will take notice. Until then, people will be fed Soma.
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  15. Resellers will have a difficult time competing with this if they bought in last couple years. This will begin a process in motion.
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  16. In fairness, would need to see if there was a major renovation in that 1.4m house after the 800k purchase. But yes, I absolutely would recommend to wait. History is a pretty good teacher.
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  17. Not really familiar with the Miami market, but many of those flips in my area include a significant renovation. Was that the case with with the You Tuber's property? The gain may not be as high % as it appears. Renovation costs can be quite substantial. Great work as always
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  18. Foreclosure activity should pick up which will lead to increased inventory. That particular inventory is held by motivated sellers. That needs to be factored into anyone's prediction for future outlook. Cash buyers will likely predominate at lowered price since the higher rates will exclude those needing financing
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  19. A current low interest rate on someone's mortgage is one thing. A falling knife is another.
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  20. History has an echo. The "reduced appreciation but no price decline" was a very persistent mantra in 2005. Same as in last year. Saw the similar wreakage in late 80s. Led to complete destruction of the Savings and Loan industry which was the largest source of mortgages previously.
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  21. A great reset would indeed be painful in the short term but a salvation for the younger generation who are very challenged for economic life in general but especially for any hope of home ownership or affordable rent. Things are way out of proportion. A reversion to the mean is long over due but over history has seen to be true. If you are diligent, you will be preparing now for future events. I am for sure. History is a great teacher.
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  22. Downside of rising values is the rise in taxes and insurance. Can be burden. For homestead, Florida has Save Our Homes Act and tax exemption probability, but does not apply to other properties and not in the owners control. Since tax assessments are figured by mass appraisal algorithm once per year, the higher tax rate can persist even in rapidly falling market. The roll back rate used to insure that municipal budgets are met can result in stable tax bills even if assessments drop, which can take owners quote by surprise. These are some of the I'll feeling side affects springing from a big real estate run up.
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  23. Looks like an Ylang Ylang tree. It the flower Chanel #5 is made from. Grows in tropical climates.
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  24. Insurance premium increases could be partially offset if construction costs go out and result in lowered replacement cost. If this happens the contract your agent and have a new replacement cost estimate. If still high, can be contested by getting an estimate from a builder or construction estimator. In a homeowner's policy, there is an assumption that personal property has a value of 50% of the structure value. This may be true in some cases, but would guess it is not true in most. The base rate for personal property coverage tends to be higher than that for the structure which exasperated total premium changed. Talk to your agent to determine what cranks can be turned to minimize premiums. I have done this many times and its easier than you might guess. Lender may call the shots however so would need to check with them as well. Sometimes HOAs can also specify.
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  25. Last I looked, the government backed NFIP only covered residential structures to 250k and had somewhat limited things covered. Overage would need to covered by very expensive private insurance. No NFIP in COBRA zones. Buyers need to be aware before offering on property.
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  26. Data is data until the run for the exits commences. Seen this dance before. Yes, willing buyers, especially if cash, will gain significant leverage and will apply it.
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  27. Keyword indeed is "yet". Holding costs mount with time until reality sets in.
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  28. Thanks for the lending lesson. Very inrormative.
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  29. Flood risk happens in waterfront or proximate areas which tend to be higher desirable areas. No contradiction with that.
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  30. He is partially right in his recession definition but he is looking at where the puck is and not where it may head.
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  31. The legislative measures you describe are really not bad in principal. There were similar in the 06 to 2010 period. The market eventually took care of itself. Perhaps it just an indication of where we are on the curve. Not draconian like what blue states are doing. Will be interesting to see if Floida shift to negative net migration like what happened in last go around. Seems unlikely, but was also incomprehensible in last go around. As far as encouraging developers to build low cost housing, the cost of construction makes this unlikley to be offset by tax credits.
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  32. No question you will see those Case Schiller 12 month figures change radically in next several months. References data that is about 3 months old and compares to 12 months previous. Already dropped from about 21% to most recent read of 15 handle in past 4 reads. This is for the nationwide figure. If it did not lag, the figure would likely lower for the current read. In another 6 months reads, we could see negative. Then CNBC and other mainstream media will be reporting and confidence will really shift.
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  33. Hey Michael. How do you think the new Citizens insolvency danger announcement may affect sentiment to housing?
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  34. Despite the "different this time" narrative, it is amazing how similar the chain of events is unfolding.
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  35. Under save our homes, assessment has go be reduced when market value decreases. However the roll up provision allows for increase of millage in order to make the budget. Ultimately, taxes are indexed to municipal budgets and not to property values. During the last big downturn many were infuriated when their taxes did not reduce proportionate to the market value drops. Since municipalities tend to spend a lot of money during boom times I imagine that the same will occur if another big recession hits. You are correct in that many people do not know how this works.
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  36. The cure for high prices is high prices. Takes some time however. History has shown this in past and may in future. Can't bet on anything, but trajectory is changing. Big question is what is future trajectory? It's not about what assets you buy but the timing under which you own them. Therefore look at history, see where we are on the cycle, and see how others capitalized in the past.
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  37. If you are buying an 80 year old home, you should have inspections from engineers and by the individual trades. I.e. electrical, roofers, plumbers etc. It is out of league for most general purpose home inspectors.
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  38. Those who insist on remote work in defiance of the company's mandate may very well be higher on the layoff list if/when the big downturn occurs. Not really great to be biting the hand that feeds you. Can bet derivatives on mortgages and other instruments are being issued, subprime or not. Strongly recommend watching the PBS Frontline documentary series "Money, Power & Wallstreet. Is a very detailed account of the economic and political events from 2004 to 2008 which culminated in the GFC. Was much more than just unwise domestic mortgage lending. Had influences outside USA borders and derivatives collapsed rapidly. Mortgages obviously were part and possibly the trigger. Can watch that documentary on YouTube. Very enlightening.
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  39. Taxes in Florida for main residence protected by Saves Our Homes Act. Does not apply to second homes, land, or commercial property.
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  40. Quite the pickle for remote workers.
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  41. Great to see great time with dad. I miss my dad every day. Enjoy!
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  42. Love your videos but have to point one thing out. Not all HOAs have private road. If it is a gated development then it will have private roads but many are not gated and have public roads and hence road maintenance is performed by the municipality. Just a technicality and don't mean to seem nit picking but just mentioned for factual accuracy.
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  43. My son attended an investmentxseminar with me recently and we got to talk with a. Brokerage company exec. He is about to graduate with a finance degree so was asking employment questions. He wants to work in an office/team environment. The exec said he was rare and they are finding ot hard to hire for positions requiring office attendance. When economy really slows I think those with desire to be in office will have advantage. Those who bought houses far away from work with Hope's of being remote workers may face hard decisions as Michael said. They are easy layoff targets.
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  44. Glad you are doing ok in Miami. I am in Sarasota county and we were original ground zero. Feel for Steve Daria since the eyewall is coming ashore in his area, Ft Myers, as I write this. It pretty intimidating here right now and his area might be seeing double the wind speed we are.
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  45. Here in Sarasota Brad area yes listing are increasing but additionally pending seem to be falling. Differences of course from neighborhood to neighborhood as well as price ranges but seeing this more and more commonly.
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  46. More than homestead tax exemptions, she was beneficiary of save our homes act which also pertains only to homestead. Perhaps that was what your referring to.
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  47. They should bring back Miami Vice and Michael would be the new "Crocket" resembles Don Johnson enough to be the son following in Sonny's footsteps. Those of us who remember that series would be all in. "Tale of The Goat" was my favorite episode with the bad guy "Legba"
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  48. It has been documented that kickbacks from Eukraune to politicians were made from previous rounds of funding. Some via FTX. Both parties likely involved and both houses.
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  49. Keep in mind too that after 60 days vacant, a HO policy will not cover. A replacement policy Carrie's a much higher premium. Therefore the leverage against the owner grows substantially.
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  50. All those things combined with the potential for a general RE downturn. It's getting concerning.
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