Comments by "Jeffrey Deuitch" (@jeffreydeuitch2146) on "Michael Bordenaro" channel.

  1. Josh not being objective in his recommendation. Also, atleast in our area, a high proportion of our 1M+ sales are for cash. Either way, it may be wise to wait this out for awhile.
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  2. Noticed similar recently when just trying to see what current rates are. Every web site I clicked on had a mortgage application link. Gave me the same feeling Michael is describing.
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  3. The competition in the next couple years may very well be amongst the sellers rather than buyers. A similar "standoff" occured in our area in 2006.
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  4. If rents collapse, investors will hibernate.
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  5. yes, I would offer a bit low considering what may happen over next several months. Beware the falling knife.
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  6. Once the velocity of money through the economy slows you will see changes.
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  7. Condo buyout would work unless recession and downward RE market evolves. Then the higher new HOA fees create a tightening noise. I sense this is going on in many asset classes. I can imagine large impound lots with dozens of 80 to 90k pickup trucks. Recessions are like a massive reset buttons. The bull walks up the step but the bears jump out the windows. Would not be the first time.
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  8. Until people just say no to buying stuff at ridiculous prices, it will go on. The consumer controls this. Shop at Aldi. Even Walmart has gone greed, not green. There are options.
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  9. As far as those items affecting young people's decisions on home buying, the real big one is the layoff stats. Stretching to get the dream home is often done without consideration of employment stability and long term income projection. That is a very hard lesson to learn especially if sandwiched by an underwater property. Worked with many of these back in 09 to 10 period. It is sad and shocking.
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  10. One of the first things you learn in studying water intusion issues is that protrusions in roofing is the highest hazard causes. This was one of the first things I thought about when rooftop solar started hitting the market. Imagine how they complicate re roofing projects. I personally would never do them.
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  11. Remember there was very high appreciation from Jan to about june to August 2022. YOY not telling an accurate picture. Much data comes from MLS and much of new construction is not on MLS. Even the turvis tumbler factory store here near Venice has a "up to 50% off" 4 day sale going on now. Truly a sign of economic times!
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  12. Prices already too high. Any inflation will tighten the noose. If housing goes, everything goes and the reset button gets pushed with massive demand destruction for everything. Price reductions will prevail and then the fear of, and reality will be deflation. The cure for high prices is high prices. If real estate can go down in price, other things can as well.
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  13. The proposed rent control issue could accelerate downward market value and prices given that increasing rent anticipation is a large part of investor thesis.
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  14. What the article is ignoring is the potential that prices could drop to such a level where fear sets in and the flood gates open causing a race to much lower prices. Wonder if "snowballing" will become a buzz term this year.
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  15. Most inventory data appears to be based on MLS/IDX listings. A very large % of new construction is NOT MLS listed. Hence inventory is under reported.
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  16. He was the top dog on TV during the heyday of that series. Remember it well and have the entire DVD collection. The remake movie with Jamie Fox was pretty good too.
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  17.  @jimshoe402  the sound and music really set the atmosphere. The episodes are still good to watch and have the feel.
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  18.  @MichaelBordenaro  yep, and the villain would be an international drug lord laundering money by financing real estate investors in Miami.
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  19. shoe  omg
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  20. I entered RE services during, as NIck referenced, the early 90's. What he is referring to is the S&L Crisis. Was very similar to the GFC. Strange no one remembers this, perhaps too young. Completely decimated the S&L industry and its deposit insurer, the FSLIC. Taken over by the subsidiary of the FDIC known as the RTC. Was personally involved with liquidating assets from failed banks and S&Ls around the country. Trust me, it was huge.
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  21. The storm is approaching the FT Myers area on the west coast. It's already north of miami and on other coast. Miami is pretty much out of danger for anything significant and Michael is aware. They could still get some significant rain and other effects, but nothing like being near the eyewall.
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  22. Something to know about taxes is that they are NOT flexibly tied to value. They are tied to municipal budgets. If property values fall dramatically, the rate of taxation can increase so dollars are sufficient to cover these budgets. These are called "roll backs". Call your local tax collectors office to see how it works in your area. The value down=taxes down assumption is not valid. Budgets have to reduce to allow your taxes to reduce.
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  23. At the State College level, tuition in Florida is about 200 per credit hour with the average load of about 12 hours per semester which is $4800 per semester. Other than dorms, student housing is about $750 to $850 per month plus utilities. This adds another $3,200 +/- per semester quadruple occupancy.. In Floida you have Bright Futures scholarships if the student did reasonably well in HS and continues good grades in college. Pays for basic tuition but not additional program costs. Does not pay for housing. We seem to come around for all of us that housing is a big problem and student loans get way out of whack with this figured in
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  24. Some folks think there is environmental reasons for EVs. However they need to assess what fuel and carbon usage was used to generate the electricity. If nuclear then OK but then comes down to cost of power. Renewables just don't produce enough power for grid scale.
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  25. Spot on. Narratives get fully exploited.
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  26. Wait until June for the YOY data. Then we will be one year from the peak. There will be some shock and awe. It is obvious although there may be some narrative engineering in attempt to prevent panic.
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  27. Definitely not an HOA person. I am an avid gardener but, I do feel that if you buy into an association you have agreed to give e control to others. Buyer beware and don't complain later. Know what you are getting into.
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  28. Bo jangles dirty rice is the best and they have been around for a long long time.
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  29. Where I live in Sarasota County it is amazing how often I see 60 to 80k pick up trucks in from of little 2/1 houses with carports. A few years ago the likely occupants would have had beater cars and a bunch of people living there splitting rent. Not sure what to conclude but one possibility is poor financial choices on the part of many to live the dream believing that construction or related services will go on forever. Been through last 2 recessions and not pretty when it comes. Seems in overdrive this time around. Noose tightening?
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  30. Mattamy has a large presence in Florida as well as being one of Canada's largest builders.
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  31. Many reason why volume increased. may be result of seller capitulation and price drop combined with slight rate drop.
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  32. That or a cash out refi.
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  33. Some of the professions you reference have license requirements which necessitate education requirements. To be an appraiser now has some education requirements.
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  34. Absolutely brilliant energy policy. Pay to get people to get rid of gas appliances in favor of electric which will require power plants to up the gas burning to provide more electricity to power all the new electric ranges that replaced the gas ones. Is there ever an end to the stupidity! Yes, gas powers most power generating facilities. Dont like gas plants, then go with coal or oil. Germany has learned similar lesson when the shut down nuclear. Now they are burning more coal than ever and have higher emissions. Oops, the $500B wind/solar experiment didn't work out to well.
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  35. Decent analysis but need to break down electricity cost to price per mile traveled.
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  36. Remember also with new home construction that every vacant lot in modern developments represents inventory despite there not being a permit on these.
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  37. I think the wise look for where the puck is going rather than where it is. When recessions arrive, they tend to come as a surprise. Then drastic changes in habits occur. Otherwise tends to be business and spending as usual.
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  38. In my recent MLS searches I have noticed that active listing are dwarfing pending sales. A fundamental change appears to be evolving. If this progresses then some wholesale changes in the industry will occur and the NAR issues will become irrelevant. Have been through the last 2 big downturns and history may be repeating. All current narratives may become passe soon.
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  39. Understand the point, but when you allow the govt to supercede a free market, you might create a Frankensteins monster since it could spiral rapidly and no established boundaries. Ok with the Homepath system, but not the broad market. What would be the endpoint of such authority? Truly scary.
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  40. Keep the glasses, makes you look right out of Miami Vice.
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  41. Agree with most of what is said, however if market starts declining then many of the dynamics you describe will be different. This includes comps. In declining market, lenders will start to look at list prices of available properties. Many do not know that appraisals contain not only data for closed sales but also typically will have 2 or more listing or pending comps with pending being preferred. This requirement came in the last downturn where asking price on listings became more indicative of security for a loan. So much that people do not know about.
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  42. The gap is because price is capitalized to income. This is why prices go down quickly once rents drop, especially if organic price appreciation stagnates or drops. It's a perfect storm when that happens.
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  43. I do services related to new construction closing diligence. Am on 3 to 6 or more construction sites each week. I am stunned to see how many truck heaven f150s and RAMs used by contractors. Many of these trucks are in the 80k+ range. Market clearly starting to moderate and would imagine that many of these trucks will show up on lots soon after repossession. Trades have been good for last few years but is changing and that debt will come home to roost
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  44. Time to bring in consultants from Saudi and other mideast countries to show us how to address theft issues.
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  45. Not only should your investment analysis include those you mentioned, but also a buffer for the possibility that rents can drop, especially if the economy turns down and unemployment increases.
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  46. The silent ripoff is the replacement cost estimate. The rate is multiplied by the replacement cost to create the premium. There is no regulation on cost estimates. Works just like tax bill in that regard. In 2012, Citizens got into big trouble for excessive RCV estimates. You can google this if you wish to research. This is the component you need to fear going forward. Furthermore the base rate for personal property coverage is higher than real estate and in a HO policy, personal property is assumed to possess a large portion of the structure value. Usually 25 or 50% of the structure value. So if your structure has 300k in RCV, then you can be paying for $150k of personal property coverage but some classes of valuables are only covered up to 5k. Talk to your agent for details.
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  47. Your listing and pendings analysis is right on the money here in Sarasota Bradenton area.
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  48. Hope you guys faired OK. Here in the Sarasota area, Nicole was a mild wind and rain maker. Definitely did not need anything resembling another Ian type event. Was strangely cold when it came.
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  49. You last sentence says it all. Recency bias is a powerful thing and tends to outweigh history. This bias, of course, leads to the belief that what has happened recently will continue. It works in both directions and is prevalent in all investment types.
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  50. It is as though governments are deliberately trying to send us into recession in order to hit the reset button and drive everything thing down. All this with extreme fallout ofcourse. Automotive podcasts are revealing significant changes in that industry as well. Another brick in the wall to quote pink floyd. Shades of 2006?
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