Comments by "HKim0072" (@HKim0072) on "China Observer" channel.

  1. It boggles my mind that DNA or some type of national number tracking database isn’t used.
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  2. @ Do you realize we have the internet and access to this data right? FRED has numbers back to 2000. Sans pandemic, the highest unemployment rate of a doctorate is 3.6% in 2009.
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  3. @ lol, you haven't looked at the numbers. Only about 5M people have doctorates in the US. That's 2.5% of the working age population. Anyone that gets their doctorate in a halfway decent college is fine (as long as its a marketable degree and not basket weaving). You do realize underemployment is captured in average salary right?
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  4. IMO, it’s a free press. Elections would be nice, but free press is most important.
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  5. Oddly since the US took their lumps decades ago with manufacturing, it’s better insulated now. Tariffs can be slapped on to protect a few key industries. Maybe Apple and the semis take some of a hit, but they are still very profitable. Farmers could get hurt if they produce China exclusive product like soybeans.
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  6. Actually, it's good for non-Chinese assets. It's part of the reason why the US market is up (and Japan). No one wants to invest into China stuff. The 10yr UST is at 4.48% and the SPX is 1000 points higher when UST was at these levels.
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  7. You'd lose your job and being watching YT videos full time. America ain't like Japan where companies had a sense of nationalism and held onto workers.
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  8.  @Mrbfgray  Obviously, you've never taken out student loans and don't know the Stafford loan limits.
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  9. Just weird. Lottery should just be a supplemental business for an existing store. lol, and why would a store stock up on scratch tickets ahead of time? It should be a weekly replenishment at most. Worked at a place in my late teens. It was a magazine / tourist store. We had two registers on the front counter for the store and the lottery machine was on the side of the counter.
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  10. lol, are you nuts? Blackrock has $9 trillion under management. If they fail, we are in a serious global systemic failure.
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  11. Pooh Bear is the worst game player of Sim city ever.
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  12. No US bank depositor has ever lost a penny during a bank failure since the FDIC was created in 1933 (limits apply). In total, account holders affected by the bank failures since 2007 have not yet recovered about $145 million in uninsured deposits, the FDIC data show–a small sliver of the roughly $780 billion in total deposits at banks that failed over that period.
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  13. If there are 100K workers, that's only 2 per meal. Western countries stopped doing the dorm / company meals ages ago. The closest comparison you can find is sporting events ie some of the American football stadiums have 100K attendance.
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  14.  @timotheegoulet1511  "refract" is different than "reflect". It means bending light around the object hence the cloaking device. (obviously, it's more complicated and scientific than a 1 sentence definition.)
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  15. SOHO founders hatched their plan over a decade ago. Probably have made the best transition.
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  16. lol, "stuff is cheap" even though I don't live in China and make a Chinese salary. Pooh Bear must be your master. "What's wrong with deflation? Prices are cheaper."
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  17.  @xcloud777  Japanese banks are some of the biggest in the world by asset size.
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  18. Probably close to $20 trillion in local government debt purchases. Another $12 trillion in central government debt. Than spread the rest out between households and companies. Only the central government number is reasonably accurate. Everything else is a guess.
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  19. This is the correct analysis. There was a brief moment at the end of ‘22 and beginning of ‘23 to get aggressive and throw money at fixing the RE issue. Now, it’s too late and it’s dragging the whole economy into a downward spiral.
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  20. Everything is a bad idea in the beginning. I used BBS as a kid, but we found a local number and didn’t incur long distance charges. Internet in the early 90s was a crazy per hour number. Palm Pilot and Apple Newton didn’t work out commercially as well.
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  21. Inefficiencies creates jobs. There is a reason why Indonesia is imposing massive tariffs on China.
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  22. China stock market is relatively small: Probably around $10-11 trillion.
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  23.  @raevj  1- umm, that's what nominal means 2- not necessarily. Way harder to calculate a "real" import number because the basket of goods are different. Gets murky as the iPhone doubled in cost, but is way different from 2013. 3- as a % of nominal GDP, it's going to be a smaller % 4- Real = inflation adjusted Nominal = non-inflation adjusted
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  24. Too lazy to research the securitization market in CCP China. I know the derivatives market (CDS) is way underdeveloped. It's hard to know who "owns" the risk in the commercial market.
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  25.  @gladiatorgamer9502  Literally, I explained it. There is a difference.
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  26. All the data is publicly sourced. Ignore the “opinion” part. Also, they are using anecdotal examples.
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  27. lol, the VOA is a known US government agency. It’s not some clandestine front trying to pretend to be something else.
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  28. Video was pretty disorganized. Just a bunch of random data that wasn’t connected. And, it left out the biggest part: oversupply in the housing market. Not homes for sale, but total homes vs total households. Also, the 2022 births have zero impact today. That’s an issue for 20-25 years later.
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  29. Korea was de-risking even before the ban. Or it was just better economics. My cousin's fiance (now husband) was placed overseas in Vietnam for extended stints. Was involved in manufacturing. This was early 2010s. Eventually, he was transferred to Malaysia after they were married. (both native Koreans)
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  30.  @powershift2025  Interestingly, I just looked at Japan's UNRATE. It peaked at 5.5% in 2000. China is probably double that right now if not 3x. Japan has been mostly growing every year (looks like 7 years with negative, 2 flat and rest small positives since 1990). Just slow as dirt.
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  31. Literally, not true, but ok.
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  32. @h.e.pennypacker5228 Famines can only happen if a country doesn't have enough foreign currency or they are a hermit nation like North Korea. Having to buy more food overseas isn't a famine.
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  33.  @yeroca  The destruction of small brick and mortar stores started earlier in the US with hypermarkets. It was a huge concern back in the '90s / 00's. The small businesses that survived already adapted, so online was less of a hit. 2004: A Wal-Mart discount store arrived in the historic town of 40,000 people more than 10 years ago.
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  34.  @MakerInMotion  The guy was too left for MSNBC.
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  35. Always wondered why people didn't question the rent payment vs mortgage payment spread. Excluding expensive places for foreign corporate workers, I saw some crazy numbers. It sounded like a Chinese mortgage payment will 2x the payment if you rented the same place. And, in some extreme cases, I saw 3x or more. That's why some people didn't even bother renting their places and just left properties sitting there and unfinished. Always felt like the arbitrage was renting a place and using the savings for well, not Chinese stocks.
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  36. Well, this channel has achieved the "The Three Little Pigs". Obviously, this is my opinion only. The one female narrator with a British or "British colony" accent feels like she is learning how to read. I don't watch those videos. The other female narrator with an American accent speed reads through the script. Tiffany Meier who does the other channel as well is good, but it's almost too dry. News pitch doesn't work. This narrator is perfect. Speed of narration is great and it "almost" doesn't feel like she is reading from a script (which she is). Edit: the Wargraphics dude, Simon Whistler, is on my scale near the peak. You really don't think he's reading from a script.
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  37. Wait, what? GLD (Gold ETF) hit a high of 225 and dropped about 2%. Is China not using the spot price? Edit: did the math. 25 yuan / 576 = -4.3% drop. It did drop about that amount earlier in the week and rebounded a bit.
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  38. Divide by 7. Use your old elementary level math skills.
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  39.  @powershift2025  Yeah, people are idiots thinking they can make money off fx / macro bets. The cost and risk that comes with these trades are not for the faint of heart. Certainly, not by people spending time in YouTube comments. Michael Burry almost had to give up on his short trade because he was running of time and it was getting expensive.
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  40. The buy sell spread is huge. According to the Financial Times, Moex' resulting dollar restriction caused the greenback's rate to spike among local banks. Where the central exchange offered the US currency at under 90 rubles, some lenders have now sold it for 120-200 rubles.
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  41. Weird video. Lots of inaccuracies. Not sure if I want to time stamp and refute them all. I'll just talk about the UST. All of the US treasury holdings are underwater for the CCP. A mass amount of selling will push the yield even higher and make them realize their losses at an even higher rate. Likely, looking at a $100B loss. Even trickier is their MBS holdings. It's an illiquid market. Nearly impossible to sell their holdings in a short period of time.
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  42. Just a terrible video. I'm more confused now than before watching it. Statements contradicted each other, charts had lines on a bar chart that didn't make sense, didn't explain what "minimum contribution base" means, etc. I literally have no idea how much a worker contributes: raw number or % of income.
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  43.  @piotrmajewski5978  Without securitization and CDS, housing in the US wouldn't have been an issue. There was barely any oversupply in the US market (except regional pockets).
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  44. It's nearly impossible to reach Depression levels due to monetary policy tools. The US central bank in the 1930s had no clue what to do and to a degree made it worse. Everyone knows the playbook today. They have a lot of debt, but at some point, they'll realize they need at least a stimulus package near 10% of GDP.
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  45. It’s like clockwork. A massive bank bailout every decade.
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  46. The US should start going full reciprocity with China. Far too long that we’ve played nice with them. We should implement the same type of rules on Chinese people and businesses as they do on Americans.
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  47. F-35 is exported already. The only outlier country is Singapore. Turkey, Thailand and UAE have been turned down. Taiwan as well.
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  48. Repatriated profit from Chinese companies are a small fraction compared to the factory investment + jobs in the local market.
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  49. The fertility rate was above 5 until the mid-1970s. It stayed above the 2.1 rate (growing population) until the early 1990s. Then, add in modern medicine has extended lives. Life expectancy climbed from 33 in 1960 to 78 today.
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  50. Not being rude, but you misunderstand the topic of the video. It's about balance of payments crossed with Fx reserves. This type of presentation needs flow charts to be effective. Words suck. I guess in theory people could slowly withdraw cash from banks and hid it.
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