Comments by "DasBubba" (@dasbubba841) on "Good Times Bad Times"
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@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311
1) Casualties are hard to discern, because both sides are tight lipped about figures. Civilian casualties are probably equal to or more than military casualties for Ukraine, though. The Russians themselves have suffered heavily, based on visual equipment losses (the VDV especially). Though, a lot of those were front loaded at the start of the war, and due to heavy entrenchment of both sides, I'd say casualty figures aren't that high (for both sides) as of late. Also to note is that Ukrainian morale hasn't suffered due to casualties.
2) Inflation is rather uncomfortable in the West, though that has flattened out recently. It also hasn't led to any decrease in support from Ukraine's largest backers, namely the US, UK, and Poland where public support for Ukraine has consistently remained high.
3) The EU has made serious efforts to soften the blow the onset of winter will have. This has included stockpiling energy, diversifying suppliers, and reducing consumption. Also, said blow won't be felt equally in the EU. Ukraine's most consistent and impactful backers, notable Poland, are not dependent on Russia. The US, the largest backer (and supplier of the very effective HIMARS) is not dependent on Russia at all, and any crisis the EU may face will not impact them at all.
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@schuschnix5261 Sanctions do work. They don't destroy a country, but they make it far more difficult to carry out objectives. North Korean and Iran have militaries that are basically stuck a Cold-War technology level. Cuba's economy is tiny, and dependent on tourism (and cheap oil from Venezuela).
Sanctions make it harder for Russia to assemble sophisticated weaponry. Yes, they can smuggle chips in from third-party sources, but that is expensive and slow.
Europe is hurting, but it's temporary. Oil and natural gas aren't sourced from only Russia. Energy sources are being sourced from other suppliers like Qatar, the US, and Saudi Arabia. The longer the war goes on, the weaker the dependence becomes, especially as LNG infrastructure is constructed. What happens when Russian suppliers are replaced? The EU was Russia's largest market BY FAR.
And if Russia hasn't mobilized by now, they never will because the political cost of doing so outweighs the costs of potentially losing the war.
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Putin is a risk taker, but he is not stupid. The fact that he has maintained power for longer than I've been alive (I'm in college) illustrates this. He made a very poor gamble, but to give up and thrown in the towel in unthinkable.
This is because I'd say it is not Putin that has the fragile ego, but the entire Russian citizenry that does. Russia is an immensely proud nation that has suffered immensely. The economic situation is terrible (even before sanctions), having probably one of the greatest wealth gaps in the world, suffocating corruption, an ageing population, terrible living standards for the average Russian, and HIV epidemic caused by a dysfunctional healthcare network, crumbling Soviet-legacy infrastructure, and the list goes on and on.
Pride is all Russians have left. Unlike the Germans, whose defeat in WWII forced them to come to terms with authoritarianism, and who had an economic miracle to promote optimism for the future, Russians never had that. Only stagnation and endless recollection of the "glory days".
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