Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "Whatifalthist"
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One may see Christianity as a continuation of Greek religion. Many aspects of the myth of Jesus Christ are easily identified as borrowed or derived from Greek Myths. Consider....
1. Jesus was born of god coupling with human -- so too, was Hercules.
2. Jesus had his trials in the wilderness -- Hercules had his 12 trials.
3. Jesus is adorned with the Halo of Helios.
4. Dionysus died, descended into Hell, and was reborn. (also, the Egyptian God Osiris, died and was reborn on the third day, like Christ. Also, Egypt had a trinity!)
5. The cult of Mithras had a Communion like ritual.
6. "Miracles" like raising the dead were fairly common in the Ancient world.
7. The Christian cult of Mary, also has precedents in ancient Middle East religions. Namely the Egyptian cult of Isis, is the most well known.But, there were also Greek goddesses of Hera, Athena, Hestia which could have been used as a model. Though, no Greek Goddess is very similar to Mary. Hera and Hestia are closest, I think.
The Jesus myth was created during a time of huge Hellenic influence in Israel. For me, it is easy to see how the two melded to create Jesus.
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Nice analysis. Totally wrong and misguided. But, very nice and well done.
OK, why do I say it is "wrong and misguided"?
1. Analyses like these have an unstated assumption that the world today is like the world of yesterday.
If you were a paleolithic analyst, circa 10000 BC, you could not have forecast the future, because agriculture was a game changer.
2. There are so many game changers, that today's world CANNOT go through troubles the same way. Even defining what is trouble, is likely to be very different.
For instance, nuclear weapons change the whole dynamic of how nations use war. A direct war between nuclear powers will never be total war (we hope). Since WW2, the US has been in proxy wars.
The creation of the nation state put Europe on the road to world domination -- which it did until WW2. Imperial governments became outclassed, and fell. India, Ottoman Empire, China, Russia, and Iran -- all fell or were transformed.
More importantly though, technology has restructured our societies, and even impact our culture.
Telephone, transportation, video (in all its forms), internet, international [corporations, banks, finance, NGO's, trade, etc] have all profoundly changed humanity and how we relate to each other.
3. Extrapolations of China's development of economy and military power are ALL wrong.
China is at the apex of its power, and it was built on cooperation from the West, and China's real estate & debt bubbles.
China's real estate & debt bubbles are both popping now. China's economy is crashing.
Soon, China will be dealing with huge unemployment, and the crash of personal wealth that many Chinese families had.
The jobs that fed the internal migrants of China are ending. What will the 300,000,000 internal migrants do?? Will they stay loyal to the CCP?
4. Africa has been a real surprise. The borders imposed by the legacy of colonialization has not resulted in African wars (which is what I expected in the 70's). Instead, African countries have worked together, and there is even talk of unification. Unification would be a great way to get better borders, and to deal with the tribal divisions within the countries. At least in some cases.
5. Climate Change - your understanding of climate change is very wrong. There is NO direct connection between current behavior and current climate.
Climate change of today is the result of things we did for last decades.
If we change our behavior now, it won't have effect now --- it will have effect in the future.
For instance, CO2 is now at about 415ppm, which is higher than it was in the Pliocene, 3.5mya, when it was 390ppm, and oceans were 75 ft deeper. So, we could end ALL CO2 emissions right now, and oceans would still rise at least 75 ft, eventually.
Humans and nature operate on very different time scales.
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Interesting ideas. Most wrong, IMO.
1. Ukraine has now developed a strong national identity, Poland will not expand into it -- except economically.
2. Russia is weakened and cannot defend Siberia --- China will take it, unless Japan & US participate in its partition,
which I think is likely.
Japan will get Sakhalin and the Kuriles -- maybe Kamchatka, Vladivostok, and the land bordering the Sea of Japan. The US taking Yakutsk, and much of the Arctic coast (which would piss off China).
China will take Lake Baikal, Irkustsk, and the Ob River valley.
3. The idea that the Turks will be able to re-establish hegemony over the Arab states is ludicrous.
The Arabs NEVER liked being ruled by the Turks, and they won't again.
4. Islam is anathema to the modern world. The past Islamic wealth came from trade, NOT manufacturing.
Silks & crockery came from China. Spices came from India.
Other than Turkish candies, and Persian rugs, nothing came from there.
That is why, when the Portuguese, Dutch, and English established sea trade, the Muslim world slowly died.
5. European borders won't change. They like them as they are. Too much blood spilled making them.
They would be scared to mess with them.
6. Vietnam will become the power of the Indo-China peninsula.
7. China will collapse. The center will fail. China will split into 4 to 6 smaller states.
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Interesting, some good stuff, but mostly wrong.
1. he doesn't understand what happened in the Great Depression, and what caused it.
The Great Depression was NOT a mere market correction.
2. He also does not understand the relationship between debt and cash creation.
3. He talks about debt like debt is inherently bad -- which is wrong.
I won't go into most of it.
BUT, consider, how would your life be if you had to save up the entire cost of a house
to buy your home. So, if you wanted to live in a simple house of $100,000,
If you did not use debt, you would have to save up that entire sum.
How old would people be when they buy their first homes?
Well, before the Great Depression, people did not take out mortgages to buy homes,
they mostly paid cash, or at least a large portion of the price, with a short term note.
When we started using mortgages, with Savings & Loan companies which were set up in the 1930's,
the whole nation got wealthier.
You see, debt is how cash is created, and it is the accumulated debt we have that
backs our currency,
I will explain another time.
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About Turkey -- Have you been following history for the past 200 years at all????
The Arabs HATE the Turks. Arabs will NOT allow themselves to be ruled by Turks.
Egypt and Iraq consider themselves as older civilizations, and will resist Turkey.
You make a profoundly stupid assumption that just because a nation is a "failed state",
that it will be easy pickings for a strong neighbor to conquer, govern, and exploit it.
DO you really think Turkey can regain power over the Balkan states??
Do you really think Turkey can regain power over the Caucasus states of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia??
Do you really think that Turkey can take over and control Iraq??
ARE you NUTS??? What are you smoking??
Regarding Iran taking over Iraq -- Mesopotamia has fought the mountain tribes of Iran since 1500 BC.
Iran will not be able to conquer Iraq.
HOWEVER, I see Iraq falling under Iran's sphere of influence. ;
BUT, as Iraq's government stabilizes, which will happen, it will become more confident. and less open to external influence.
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A country called "Germany" can never become a regional entity.
The people of neighboring states have a bad history with Germany,
will never join Germany.
However, if the people of Europe transfer their identity from their past ethnicity
to a broader European identity, then much more is possible.
Poles may never join "Germany".
Same with Czechs, Slovaks, Hungarians, and French.
BUT, they all might join a Unite Europe, or a United Central Europe.
Even the Spanish, Italians, and Greeks might join a European Union.
Now, that might happen.
Doubtful, but it might.
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You have confidence in Islam??
Are you nuts??
The primary field of study in Arab Universities is still Islamic Studies.
Islam is still very anti-intellectual, anti-learning.
Islam is also anti-cosmopolitan, which makes it a horrible religion for governing a modern state.
Non-Islam minorities are recriminated by the laws and courts in Muslim majority countries.
Even supposedly "liberal" Islamic countries, like Indonesia, and Malaysia, there is deep discrimination.
Without oil, the Muslim world would be impoverished.
There is no Muslim nation that has the dynamism that Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea have.
In 20 years, the oil boom will be over. Renewable energy will power our societies.
Without oil, the Islamic world will sink into poverty, ignorance, instability, and violence.
With oil losing its strategic value, no one will care.
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Your thinking seems sound. The problems with "what ifs" is that everything changes, so other things don't occur as well. Such as Hitler not coming to power, or maybe Stalin, too. Then no WW2 changes everything - No rise of US as global superpower, no UN, no Cold War, no NATO, no Korean War, No Viet Nam war, etc etc. I presume we still have Great Depression and Dust Bowl, don't we? Would India be independent? Would there be a united China? What would the Arab world look like? South America? etc etc.
One could get lost.
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Disagree about Sea Lion. During the Battle of Britain, Germany was not being bombed, and its production not impaired.
Even without the distraction of Russia, Germany would still lose the Battle of Britain.
Consider,
1. The BoB took place over Britain. So, downed British airmen would get new planes and go back into the fight. Downed German pilots, however, became POWs. Effective Air Forces are about having experienced veteran flyers more than about supply of airplanes.
2. Britain's production capacity was increasing during the BoB. Soon, they were producing Spitfires and Mosquitoes in numbers.
3. The real threat to Britain came from U-boats. Under this scenario, Germany's production of U-boats is not increased or come earlier. So, Germany still loses the Battle of the Atlantic in the same time frame.
4. The biggest impact of Germany's not invading Russia, IMO, is that it would give Germany more resources to conquer North Africa, and to counter D-Day.
Germany would still lose. But, take longer. Britain is never invaded.
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Iran, IMO, is the only nations of the Middle East with the geography, economy, and people to become a regional power.
That is their natural position, IMO.
The only thing really stopping them, is themselves.
A regional power will NOT be allowed to exercise its power,
IF it puts itself in opposition to the world order.
The world order is more than the US.
The world order is the US, EU, world bank, IMF, world court, world stock exchanges, the community of international corporations, etc.
Iran has put itself in opposition to this world order.
It will NOT be allowed to be a regional power UNTIL it gives it up, and joins the club.
BTW - the club does not give a damn about their religion.
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You could add to your list of countries that should have been rich.
Or, at least a lot richer than they are now.
1. Argentina. In the 1930's Argentina was a wealthy as most European nations.
Then came Peronism, corruption, and mismanagement.
2. Philippines. As an ex-colony of the US, Philippines had access to the American market, and American capital.
No reason for it not to be as wealthy as ROK, Japan, or Taiwan.
3. Mexico. Resources, people, access to US market, have not done as much as it should for Mexico.
4. Turkey -- it will be on this list in a few years, after Erdogan impoverishes the place. Not yet, but soon.
5. Venzuela -- Has oil wealth, and well educated people. It was much wealthier 20, 30, or 40 years ago.
Now?? It is a wreck.
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Ok, so trade through the Indian Ocean is critical to China. Right??
So, tell me, why has China insulted, bullied, and pissed off all the countries around it???
Normally, exporting countries like to keep their neighbors happy, so they keep buying.
But, China??? They love pissing everyone off. They have made claims and threats to ---
Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Russia, India, and Malaysia.
They threaten war against anyone who supports Taiwan.
They threaten violence against any country that does a Freedom Of Navigation patrol in the SCS.
Did you note how people around the world were pleased about China's flooding and possible dam failures last year??
No one like China. No one will help it, when times get tough.
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Muslims religious??
You haven't talked to many Muslims privately, have you?
Islam forces a public show of piety.
But, that public piety is often, if no usually, with private actions and thoughts that are very non-Islamic. In fact, Atheism and Agnosticism is quite common.
Also, many "Muslims" are privately Christian, even.
At least, that has been my experience here in the US, Chicago, IL.
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Again, another case of some making "observations" and comments from the standpoint of ignorance or American History.
The speaker is obviously a child, with no recollection of the Vietnam War.
The events of the past few years do not show a nation any more "broken" than the United States was during that era.
Then there were the eras before that when the US showed it was a divided "Broken" country.
1919 race riots.
The putting down of the Bonus Army in Washington DC by Douglas MacArthur.
The Civil War - we certainly were broken in that time.
Even when we were victorious in war and expanded our country - Mexican War & Spanish American War -- there was huge opposition to our imperialist actions.
The Haymarket Riots in Chicago - protesting working conditions, and caused the US to build armories in Chicago Parks, so that the US could put down future labor riots. The focus at the time was that immigrant foreigners (sound familiar) were the cause of unrest and insurrection. The Irish, Poles, and Italians were considered inferior and seditious.
The Know-Nothing Party was like today's Tea Party - it was anti-immigration.
The more you learn of American History, the more you will see common threads that keep re-appearing.
What we are seeing today, are those same threads of intolerance, racism, and corporatism that were part of this country when it was founded.
That is both reassuring and despairing.
Despairing in that we have not been able to rid ourselves of these flaws after all these years.
Reassuring in that we have survived, thrived, and advanced DESPITE having these flaws.
We will cope. We will make some progress, as we have in the past.
And, our nation will survive, thrive, and advance.
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@marmalaterjones4526 They did not see themselves that way.
Today, whites are all lumped together as "Europeans".
Back then, they did not get along, and saw each other as being different.
The Irish were looked upon as being less than human -- housing restriction, work restrictions, and police brutality. (sound familiar?)
Remember, Europe fought wars because they hated each other.
Hitler killed Poles, Russians, Jews in gas chambers because he saw them as sub-human.
Your remark about Yugoslavia is correct, except that in Yugoslavia, the groups had identity to land and region.
The groups in the US (except for the Confederates in the South, do not have identity to a territory or region (though there may be attempts at getting "turf" in a city.)
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