Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "Whatifalthist" channel.

  1. Turkey's economic rise has much to do with its PAST association with NATO & EU. Erdogan, in his infinite stupidity, is separating Turkey from Europe. This will hit it economically. Tourism will decline, as westerners see themselves as less welcome. Companies will see Turkey as an unreliable player in their supply chains. United States will likely move its regional base from Incirlik to Cyprus. Ultimately, though, the Arab nations will NOT want to be ruled by Turkey. The Arabs NEVER liked being part of the Ottoman Empire. They fought and connived against it always.
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  2. 1. You have been listening to Peter Zeihan, too much. He is correct about demographic collapse of Russia and China. But, he is very wrong about US becoming isolationist. Using his analysis, UK should have become isolationist 50 years ago. He also does NOT understand the current world order is enabled by a lot more than the American Navy. Lastly, global finance and multinationals won't want the current order to end, and they have HUGE influence on US policy.
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  3. I do not think the Italian empire would survive the war. First, both the US and UK had a policy of "unconditional surrender". Second, US and UK industry would not tolerate Italy having control of the Suez Canal. Thirdly, oil was already seen as the foundation of power. Neither US or UK would allow Italy to retain control of the Middle East. Fourthly, the superiority of US and US navies would still exist, being overwhelming at the end of the war. Mussollini would need a powerful navy to hold on to his empire. He would not have it. So, in the end, Italy would end up with Libya and the Balkans, only, IMO. Italy would be saved from invasion, though, I think, depending on how much UK and US stick to unconditional surrender policy.
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  4. You keep mentioning OIL as a major factor in global economies and power. Wrong. Renewable energy grows by the day. Solid state batteries will allow 15 min charging of cars. With that, the gas car is on the way out. Oil max production will be hit in the next few years. By 2030, the oil countries will become irrelevant, in terms of power and influence. THAT is why the US will pull out of the Middle East. BTW..and so will Europe and Russia. No one will care about the area.
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  5. Your arguments for the rise of Turkey are really narrow minded, and short sighted. By narrow, I mean you are ignoring many other factors. You also seem to be blinded by your love of the Ottoman Empire (Which puzzles me -- you like fratricide as a the way to choose rulers? C'mon, tell me you don't mean that.) Erdogan's "Turks & Islam" foreign policy is a sham and hypocrisy. He supports China's genocide of the Turkish & Islamic Uyghurs. Huh?? Don't you see that hypocrisy?? Well, the people of the region see that hypocrisy, I am sure.
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  6. I also think the US will not shrink from the world. Shrink from the Middle East, that is for sure. But, the US will not shrink from the Indo-Pacific, nor Europe, nor Latin America. I do not see the US becoming very interested in Africa --- unless -- their rising economies make them great trading partners.
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  7. The Arabs are young, yes, but booming?? Hardly. In Saudi Arabia, "Islamic Studies" is still the number one major taught in their "universities". Not engineering, or physics, or math, or even business. That is like giving someone a degree in stupidity. Which is how I view religion - organized superstition, giving power to priests & the religious elite. Religion has held back humanity. Never has any country with a state religion flourished since 1600.
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  8.  @dirtygears6607  Scotland was settled from Ireland, which was called Scotia by the Romans. So, Irish invented whiskey. Plus, if Scots had invented it, there would be no Scotch. They had to call it Scotch to make it different from the original.
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  9.  @dsxa918  Oh, really. What distilled Italian drink did it come from then?? ridiculous.
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  10.  @dirtygears6607  It was recorded in Ireland 90 years before recorded by the thieves in Scotland. Invented by the Catholics, not the heathen Protestants.
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  11. You make some assertions that are questionable, and probably wrong. 1. The Nile water comes from Ethiopia. HOWEVER, though the Indian rivers START in China, they are fed primarily by the monsoon rains. China's damming will be an irritation, not a true threat to the Indian state. 2. China would NOT easily crush India. Where to do you get that idea??? China has little ability to project power beyond their borders. China has a hard time projecting power to the Himalayas. Their troops are not acclimated to the altitude. China's jets
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  12. Also, your understanding of America's problem with China is WRONG!! The US was OK with China rising in the economic sphere. IT was when China started flexing military muscle, threatening the peace, and therefore regional stability. PLUS -- China has made it a goal to destroy the American led world trade system. THESE are the reasons the US has a problem with China -- not because of fear of being overtaken. Your understanding of present geopolitics is crude, with a fundamental misunderstanding of what motivates the nations involved. Your presentation actually misinforms, instead of informing. You give confusion, not clarification.
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  13. All that is written in prose and pen, The saddest of these is "It might have been". Since it is all fantasy, based on unverifiable outcomes of selective assumptions, and then assumptions on the implications of the original assumptions, there is nothing that can be discussed, or even rationally debated.
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  14. @Kadir-20 We have a difference of semantics. Turkey is a power in the region. But, I think the term "regional power" was used as meaning "regional hegemon". Turkey is not that powerful, and it never will be. Turkey has too many neighbors with bad histories. The Arabs don't like it, and the Balkan slavs don't either. Egypt won't give up its position to Turkey. Iraq won't accept it. You get my point.
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  15. @Kadir-20 Good points. One thing, though, might be not to have a head case running the economy. Turkey's currency has gone to trash, because he follows the Koran. People won't follow stupid leaders. And, Erdogan is pretty stupid. Also, his autocracy is a problem.
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  16. Egypt's problem is much worse than you state. As sea levels rise, the Nile Delta will first become salinized, and then submerged. In any case, Egypt's main bread basket will cease to function. Egypt will starve to death.
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