Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "Lei's Real Talk" channel.

  1. I think one of the hardest things to do is to rationally explain the irrational. You did it. Clearly and eloquently, you did it. Thank you.
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  2. US was the world's manufacturer in the 50's and 60's. This shifted to China in the last 20 to 30 years. I don't think there will be another country in that position again. Manufacturing will be spread around the world. The factories in China are moving to many countries -- Vietnam, India, Indonesia, back to the US, and Mexico. I have not heard it mentioned, but I would expect South American and African countries to get some of it, too. I think this is best. Putting the world's manufacturing in one country, makes the world vulnerable to events and problems in that country.
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  3. Wow. Xi is turning the clock back. But, there is no going back. The China of 2022, is not the China of 1972. It is an older China. It is a country of families with only one child. It is a country without brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles. But, it is also a country that has gotten used to the good life -- cars, travel, nice homes, nice clothes. Many millions of Chinese have traveled to other nations. The people are not as unaware of the world, as they were in 1972. China is more urbanized. So, Xi cannot make China into a mirror of its 1972 self. I think Xi is about to unleash social and political forces of a strength that he won't understand, and cannot control. Seems to me, that we are witnessing the decline and fall of the CCP. How long it will take, and exactly how it will fall, we can only wait and see.
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  4. Blockades are tricky. For instance, if China stops or shoots on an American ship on the high seas, more than 25 miles from the coast, then China has committed an act of war against the US. That would not be a good idea.
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  5. The CCP has under-estimated the West and the US. The US is NOT playing defense. We are playing offense by OUR rules, our strategy, and our assets. We defined the structure of the Cold War, and we won it by our consistent strategy over 40 years. Our rhetoric is conciliatory, and non-threatening. Our actions are VERY different. First we appoint a Taiwanese woman as our trade representative to China. That was done as an insult to China, meant to ridicule Xi. Next, we expanded our base structure in the area --- Palau, Australia, and 4 bases in PH. Defense cooperation with Vietnam. MANY military deals with Taiwan. AUKUS. Nuclear sub tech to Australia. Stealth tech to Japan. Openly supporting Taiwan, in case of invasion. Showing that what we did to Russia in the Ukraine War would be worse for China if they invade Taiwan. Taking away our financial investments. Taking away our export market. Encouraging other nations to follow suit. This is how we play offense. In a few years, China will be impoverished. Too poor to keep up with us militarily. The US will win this Second Cold War, without firing a shot.
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  6. Lei, you did it again. Clear, precise, and concise. Excellent analysis.
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  7. Will Xi stay in power? Will Liu Yazhou ever get out of his house? Will Liu's mistress make another movie? Stay tuned to next week's episode of CCP's Musical Chairs, where the question, "Who won't have a seat when the music stops?" will be answered.
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  8. Thank you. You articulated and clarified what I have been thinking. I especially liked how you showed how China lied about the population born in 2020. If we take the 6 million missing 15 year old kids of 2015, and assume a similar number of 15 year old kids for every year, then China's population must be at least 200 million less than it claims. A China of 1.2 Billion is different from one of 1.4 Billion.
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  9. Can a war start from a miscalculation? Seems to me one can. The hubris of the CCP may allow them to do something that forces Taiwan to strike back. With a plane shot down, or a ship sunk, what would China do?
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  10. In questioning the PLA's capability, the issue, IMO, is not the usage of Russian hardware, but the usage of Russian doctrine. Russia has shown a poor ability to operate and coordinate combined warfare. If the PLA uses the same doctrine, how can its results be any different??
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  11. The CCP has developed a new Aristocracy to rule China. They pass power down within the ruling families, just as Aristocratic counts, baron, and lords passed their position and power down to following generations. The CCP has recreated the old aristocracy of China. Although it actually looks like European aristocracy to my eyes.
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  12. I would really like to see Japan to join AUKUS. I believe AUKUS is not set up to be exclusive, but would welcome other countries to join. If so, then a true NATO-like defense structure could be built for the Indo-Pacific.
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  13. How do companies work in China?? In the US, companies are incorporated in a state, like Ohio or Kentucky. Each state's laws on incorporation vary slightly. They have to satisfy the reporting requirements set down by each state. Then, their profits are taxed by both state and federal governments. Are companies organized at the province or country level in China?? There is little operational control in the US. Doesn't China have a lot of operational control over companies?? Etc etc. Lots of questions...
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  14. I would like to see more discussion on how China's culture has changed. With no brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, and cousins --- it seems to me that family behaviors and traditions would change or end. The entire concept of "family name" has to change, when there is only one person to carry it on. Only one person of that generation. What does "family name" really mean, when there is no family??
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  15.  @martiguesmarc819  Every fact I stated is accurate. This is what I expect to happen. China's economy is already collapsing. Companies and capital are leaving. In a few years, I think China may have difficulty in supporting its new navy and air force.
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  16. And, no bases to support forward deployment. And, no allies to help out. Meanwhile, US has bases and allies all over the globe.
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  17.  @happyhappynuts  Some truth in what you say. BUT -- the nuclear power does give the carriers a lot more flexibility. In a task force, the supporting ships can be rotated out for re-supply issues - with the nuclear carrier remaining keeping the task force deployed. Plus, nuclear power enable the huge carriers to be among the fastest ships in the fleet.
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  18. We think of bribes as being sign of corruption. For thousands of years in China, government administrators would expect "gifts" if people wanted something done, or a decision made in their favor. This was NOT considered corruption. It was considered normal, right, and proper. To not give them a "gift" would be considered rude, and ignorant. In the west, we call these "gifts" bribes. We expect judges, administrators, and government workers to do their jobs without any outside "gifts" or bribes. IMO, that is an alien concept in China and the CCP.
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  19. I admire you immensely. Wisdom is difficult to describe and understand. Knowledge is not wisdom. Neither is intelligence wisdom. Good judgement is essential to wisdom, but it is more than that. Knowing the right question to ask is important. Figuring out when one's assumptions or ideas are outdated or wrong is important. Humility to admit mistakes or being wrong, and willing to change one's mind, yet not do so whimsically or just to follow the crowd. I have listened to you. I have found you knowledgeable, with good judgement and perspective. Oh yeah, "perspective" is also essential to wisdom, IMO. Overall, I think you are wise. I am so glad you started this channel.
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  20. Now his assertion that the SCS is more important I think is correct. Lei, however, does not understand China's goals for the SCS. 1. China's interest in the SCS has little to do with resources. They can get those resources without all this trouble. 2. It is not about fish. That's ridiculous. 3. China could do all that by asserting EEZ rights. BUT -- it does not do that. China claims FULL SOVEREIGNTY over the SCS. WHY??? What does that give them? If China gets sovereignty, then its laws rule that water. Ships could not enter or transit without China's permission and regulation. China could insist on searching every ship. Or require registrations. The SCS would become like any bay or river in China. 4. With sovereignty over the SCS, China could control the maritime trade of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Brunei. These nations would be reduced to vassal states to China. THAT is what China wants. Reducing all the countries of the region to being vassals of China is its goal. Reducing all nearby states to vassals is what Imperial China did for 2000 years. The CCP may be Communist, but it is more Chinese. It hasn't changed from its days of empire.
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  21. No its not. Many may come from China, but that can change quickly. If you go back to 1970, the Great Lakes states in the US was the world's manufacturing center. This is where watches, irons, TVs, radios, cars, clothes, shoes, drugs, and so much else was produced. Then it all moved to China, and the rust belt was formed. Our cities were hollowed out by their missing factories. It will happen to China. It is happening, as Samsung, Toshiba, Apple, and so many others move out.
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  22. @Akhand BharatChina is doing a good job at decoupling from the world.
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  23. Lei, you know all those complimentary comments you received below?? Well, raise them by an order of magnitude, and that still is not up to how good you are. You help me understand the complex and hidden world of China and the CCP. Thank you so much. I am glad some good came of COVID, since it inspired you to go on YouTube.
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  24. Do not confuse ownership with control. Right now their is a world grain shortage. Countries that are starving will NOT let grain produced on their land to be exported. Ownership is NOT control.
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  25. The views and attitudes are what I expect, except from Malaysia and Indonesia. Considering Xi and the CCP claim some of their EEZ territory, and assault them with fleets of fishing boats, I am surprised that most people like Xi. I find that very strange.
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  26. Oh, to heck with Game Of Thrones. I think the CCP - Game Of Power is much more fun.
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  27. You say that Taiwan is China's main goal. I don't think so. Taiwan is its short term wish, and is important for its propaganda and stated ideology. But, taking Taiwan would not be nearly as useful as taking Siberia. Much of Siberia once belonged to China. And, we know how China likes to use old maps to make claims. The Global Times recently said Vladivostok and other areas of Siberia belong to China, and that China will come and get them someday. Do you think that was written in jest?? China is serious. China will come for Siberia. I think that will happen in about 20 to 40 years. Depending on how fast Russia declines, and how isolated it remains.
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  28.  @johndoe-vc1we  Same. We are allied with both. So, an act of war on a Japan or NATO ship has same result, IMO. However, like I said in other comments, if China makes the area into a war zone, then maritime insurance creates an effective blockade against China. ==> No ships will go to/from China without maritime insurance -- which cannot be got in a war zone.
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  29. From my POV, Putin and Russia is losing the social media war. Zelensky has emerged as a great hero. Somehow he has become a combination of Winston Churchill, Robin Hood, and King Arthur - an heroic, almost mythical figure. Putin looks silly sitting at comically long tables. His speeches make him look disconnected and delusional. Inspired by Zelensky, and the injustice of the war, tens of thousands of men around the world have made their way to Ukraine, to volunteer to oppose Russian storm troopers. If China supports Russia too much, China will look stupid.
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  30. One of the biggest failures by Japan, and a really stupid failure, IMO, has been Japan's refusal to take responsibility for its bad behavior in WW2, and apologize to the nations and people they wronged. Japan should apologize to China. Japan should apologize to Korea, especially to the Korean comfort women who were abused. Japan should apologize to UK, US, and Australia for the horrible treatment of their POW's. If Japan finds the wisdom and humility to do this, respect and admiration for Japan would soar around the world. Korea, especially, would find it easier to ally with Japan against China. But, Japan won't do it. Those who are too focused on "saving face" lack the understanding that humility and taking responsibility builds trust, and goodwill.
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  31. If China does the same as it did in the two battles you mentioned, then China will force foreign investment out of China. That would be the end of China's post-Mao economy. Wouldn't that impoverish China? Wouldn't it destroy its middle class? Seems to me, that it would.
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  32.  @LeisRealTalk  You are more than welcome. I love your tone, and your analytical approach, with no hype. You have a refreshing island of sanity and intelligence on the internet, mostly populated by pretenders and propagandists.
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  33. Note: Strategic Ambiguity has been America's formal position on Taiwan since President Carter. It is NOT Biden's policy, or Trump's policy ---- it is AMERICA"S policy. It has been held by ALL presidents since invoked. Now, since China has revoked its part in Strategic Ambiguity, the US should abandon it, IMO. Remember, China was supposed to go along with our policy, with its own policy of Strategic Ambiguity -- they were to say Taiwan is part of China, but be vague about bringing into the fold. Xi has changed that. So, we should change, too.
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  34. IMO, the one child policy is only ONE factor in the destruction of China's economy. There are several others --- 1. China's system where local government raised money through real estate speculation. 2. China's behavior of threatening the countries that import all its products. 3. China's security law that threatens visiting foreigners. 4. China's policy of targeting foreign companies making sure they cannot get a profit selling inside China. 5. Destroying Hong Kong's democracy proving that China cannot be trusted, nor its commitments reliable. There are others. These are just the first that come to mind. The one-child policy by itself would have made things difficult. But, if China had maintained good relations with other countries and businesses, it would have been able to cope, IMO. As it stands now, China and the CCP are doomed.
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  35.  @drumpfdon760  That story is on another channel.
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  36. I don't think Taiwan's engineers work for cheap. Maybe less, but not cheap. Taiwan has a developed economy - educated and industrial. If China attacks Taiwan, and actually succeeds in conquering it -- I am sure all the chip engineers and other specialized workers will be evacuated to the US.
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  37. ? I was here in the '70s, in the US. There were plenty of jobs.
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  38. I believe this is a serious problem that has its origins in the millennia of imperial rule. Imperial rule encourages corruption because positions are bought & sold, are reserved for the high-born, and that action by magistrates requires gifts (bribes.) Requiring gifts (bribes) to do their jobs is seen as normal. So, bribery is part of the culture, and is not seen as criminal or even wrong. Chinese armies of the past performed poorly against various foreign invaders, I believe, due to corruption, poor leaders, and the diversion of funds meant for supplies into the pockets of officials. I think all that is likely going on today. In a future war, I expect the Chinese army to lose most battles, just as their incompetence was exposed at the Galwan Valley incident.
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  39.  @MrJimtimslim  Agreed.
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  40. BTW --- can anyone point to even ONE time, where a constant repeated threat led to a country letting down its guard, and becoming vulnerable to attack?? Please, just one example. I cannot think of even one.
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  41. If an invasion of Taiwan fails, I think the CCP might fall, not just Xi.
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  42. Corruption is part of government culture. Making laws and rules will do nothing. The culture of government must be changed. That is very very hard. When something is part of a culture, it does not feel wrong. People won't understand why they must change. There is no sense that they are doing something that is wrong.
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  43. I am not religious, but in the Bible, it says, those who sow the wind, will reap the whirlwind. Well Putin's whirlwind will blow him away.
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  44.  @LeisRealTalk  BTW, one time you addressed factionalism within the CCP. I would like to have a closer look at how that factionalism affects both foreign policy and internal policies. It seems to me, that only factionalism can explain the contradictory moves that China makes. Besides the factionalism within the CCP, I would like to look at the problems between the central CCP, the provincial governments, and the local governments. One of your programs went into depth explaining how faulty birth numbers were given to central CCP, and that the true population is 1.26 Billion, not 1.4 B. I think a broader discussion on that process and how it affects decision making at all levels would be great. I am sure you get many requests, and that you have production topics and schedule for 2022 already in the works. Happy New Year. See you in 2022. Craig Dillon
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  45.  @VIAGRA465  That is not what I heard. AUKUS said that other nations were welcome.
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  46. Another issue is maritime insurance. A blockade of Taiwan makes the SCS and the ECS theaters of war. That then means that maritime insurance is denied to all cargo ships that enter those seas. That then means that China is effectively blockaded, as well. Ships will not enter it, so all export/import activity with China will cease. I doubt China would like that.
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  47. The result of China's constant threats to Taiwan are to increase Taiwan's service requirements for its young men. And for Taiwan to acquire planes, tanks, missiles, ships, radars, mines, artillery, and most of all -- allies. Each day that passes, China's effort to conquer Taiwan becomes more difficult. Xi and the CCP are idiots.
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  48.  @antixocialman  Yep. Same playbook.
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  49. When I first saw her first video presented to me, I thought "who is this silly little woman? And, what can she say that is so important?" Well, after watching a few of her videos, I find her not so silly, and not so little. She is knowledgeable and wise. She talks about big things, important things. That makes her a giant, in my book. Listen to her. She clearly and concisely explains the complexity and contradictions of China. She does it better than anyone I have come across.
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  50. Banks and the entire financial system is based upon trust. China is facing a huge problem of people losing trust in their banking and financial systems. If (when) that happens, they will stop putting money in banks. They will stop investing - whether in real estate or securities. When that happens to countries -- portable valuables become desirable. Gems, gold, silver, jewelry become desired. They are portable, and people will hide them. I wonder how the gold and gem markets are doing in China?
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