Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "VisualPolitik EN"
channel.
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OMG, not another reference to the incompetent, biased, CSIS "war game'.
It is deeply flawed.
1. It states US would lose 4 submarines. WTF??? China cannot find, let alone target and kill a US sub. Unless of course an American sub surfaced in Shanghai harbor. LOL
2. Like ALL war simulations I have heard of so far, it assumes Taiwan sits there like a punching bag.
3. The difficulty (actual almost impossibility) of a successful amphibious landing is not taken into account.
4. The inclusion of the result of the loss of maritime insurance for ALL cargo ships going to the region is never taken into account. The loss of maritime insurance will create a de facto blockade of China. (How is that for irony??)
5. The several thousand Surface to Air (SAM), Air to Surface (ASM) and Air to Air (AAM) missiles that Taiwan has is also NEVER taken into account,
In reality, IF China is so STUPID as to attempt an invasion ---
1. Taiwan's missiles would sink most of the Chinese fleet before it gets halfway.
2. Taiwan's missiles have the range to sink Chinese ships while they are in port.
3. Taiwan has missiles with ranges that can reach Beijing, and the 3 Gorges Dam.
So, if the US even wants to have a role, it better tell Taiwan to pull its punches,
so there is something left for the US Navy to do when it gets there.
VisualPolitik -- you should vet your sources of information.
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There is a more profound and unstoppable change coming to the Middle East -- the end of oil demand.
1. Oil is quite ubiquitous. It is everywhere. Virtually all continental shelves have it. Most has not yet begun to be tapped.
2. But, that is not the problem. The REAL PROBLEM for the oil countries is electric cars & renewable energy. Both are growing at an ever increasing rate.
3. Peak Oil Demand is expected to happen anytime from 2023 to 2030. After it happens, global oil demand is expected to decline until it is hardly used at all. By 2050, over 90% of cars and trucks are expected to be electric powered. By 2050, most electricity will be produced by renewable energy powered plants.
4. As that happens, the significance of the Middle East will decline. No one will care who rules Arabia or the other oil states. The Saudis will lose their protection as they lose their significance.
5.Their current wealth is dazzling. But, it hides major weaknesses, especially for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is still run like a medieval kingdom. Human rights are not guaranteed, and rule of law non-existent. The courts are controlled by the government, and its application of "justice" is whimsical. Good luck to anyone caught up in it.
Will the Saudi family be able to cope with the coming changed world?? Probably not. If MBS is any indication, they are not a very bright lot.
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China's biggest problem is that they believe their own propaganda.
If a war occurs, I think it will stem from China overestimating its abilities.
That may occur on the Indian/China border, but can just as easily occur in the SCS.
Big question is how will China respond when India reacts strongly, attacking in force, killing and destroying a lot;
or, Vietnam or Japan react in force, sinking ships and downing planes.
Will China take the embarrassing defeat? Or, will China, to save its pride, then react in stronger force starting a larger war???
I think the latter course. China has not had a war on its territory since WW2, and may have forgotten the horrors of war.
So, it may blithely choose war.
Big mistake.
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Oh God, not John Mearshiemer again.
He is a prof at the University of Chicago, which has some bright people.
Too bad MearSheimer isn't one of them.
I listened to him, and found his ideas both ignorant and repulsive.
First, he accepts the idea that Russia is a special country whose security concerns
are the only ones to be valid.
Ukraine's security, Poland's security, etc mean nothing.
Secondly, he buys into the Putin myth that since Russia was invaded by the Mongols and Hitler, that it gives Russia the right to commit genocide.
I live in Chicago, and John Mearsheimer is an embarrassment.
PLEASE -- stop referring to him as an expert. He is an idiot, and an unprincipled one at that.
Just because he wrote a book means nothing.
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Regarding the defense of the world's democracies -- Ukraine is the point of the spear.
EVERY democratic nation has a responsibility, a SACRED duty, to support Ukraine ---
NOW, in its time of need.
They are doing the fighting -- the dying -- we owe it to ourselves to support them.
Yes, I mean we owe it to ourselves to support Ukraine ---
for if we don't, if we let Ukraine fall, if we let the light of democracy to be dimmed,
and maybe fail, then we will have shamed ourselves in our own eyes, and in the eyes of history.
Do you want to live with that blame, that shame??
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Oil never was a decreasing resource. What is more, the oil companies knew that. Well, at least by 1980 they knew that.
Ask yourself, how can the oil companies have estimates of how much oil is in the continental shelf in the South China Sea??
Or, have estimated reserves in various continental shelves around the world? - Argentina, Brazil, Israel (yep, there too), North Sea, Arctic Ice Shelves, etc.
How do they know when they have not drilled any wells, or only a few??
Simple, it is in knowing how oil deposits were formed.
AND, the formation is a very scary story.... Here it is..
1. In the Mesozoic, 250 mya to 60 mya, there were many events called ....
Global Anoxic Events.
Global Anoxic Event is when the Earth is so warm, that the ocean currents shut down, including the currents that bring oxygen to the depths. The deep ocean loses its oxygen -- hence the term Global Anoxic Event.
2. When sea creatures die, they fall to the bottom of the ocean, and rot under anoxic conditions. Over time this gives us oil deposits.
3. They are mostly on continental shelves since the shallow ocean next to land is the most productive part of the ocean.
Therefore, the oil deposits are in continental shelves, or areas that WERE under water at the time - like Texas, and Persian Gulf area.
4. GAE's occurred when Earth was very warm, and atmospheric CO2 was very high -- like 600+ppm. I don't think scientists have a firm number for that level, but it was high.
5. GAE's are associated with mass extinctions.
6. Current CO2 is 419 ppm (see https://www.co2.earth/)
CO2 is rising 2 to 3 ppm per year, and will likely accelerate in the future.
Taking the lower number of 2 ppm/year, in 80 years, 2100, CO2 will rise 160 ppm to 579 ppm in the atmosphere.
At that level, polar ice caps have never existed on Earth. SO, we could expect to lose the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps completely.
Though that loss would take several centuries. Maybe a millennia, but I doubt it would take that long, especially since, CO2 continue to rise further.
Here is the kicker, Mother Nature took the excess CO2 out of the air and sequestered deep in the land under the ocean. Very secure. Very safe. So, she thought.
NOW, man has accessed those stores of Carbon, burning it, and releasing it back into the air.
Reversing Mother Nature's efforts to build a planet nice for use.
She gave us this wonderful planet, as a gift to us.
We are now destroying it.
A Global Anoxic Event is likely in our future.
Remember, they are linked to extinction events.
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I stated "China has many problems with its military." Let me explain.
Although creating great weapons - on paper - China has no experience in using them.
China is trying to adopt US doctrine, but it has no experience.
So, it tries to hire western ex-military guys, to teach them.
(which is illegal, and will get guys that do that in big trouble).
There is only ONE country in the world today with deep experience in amphibious warfare -- the US.
Even UK, Germany, etc. experience and knowledge pale in comparison.
The US is coaching Taiwan on how to defend against and disrupt such an invasion.
I put my money on Taiwan.
Third, Taiwan makes the most advanced chips in the world. Therefore, their missile avionics, ECM, and ECCM is likely very advanced. That would mean their missiles are hard to intercept, and will hit and destroy their targets. It also means, their anti-missile missiles would be highly effective against Chinese missiles, blunting their missile barrages.
Fourthly, as Ukraine shows, people will fight like hell when they are defending home and family.
The Taiwanese will be very hard to conquer. Even if, by some miracle, China gets its forces on Taiwan -- it is mountainous, and easily defended. Walking into Taipei will not conquer Taiwan.
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Putin is destroying Russia's ability to hold onto Siberia.
In the long run, Russia's biggest threat comes from China.
Russia took Siberia from China. Lake Baikal, and much of Siberia belonged to China.
Vladivostok is build on land taken from China.
NOW -- consider this -- China claims to be an Arctic power.
How can it say that if it does not have Arctic land??
Could it be that China intends on getting Arctic land??
From where??
Taking Siberia, obviously.
Until now, Russia was too strong for that to even be a possibility.
Russia has shown that it has an incompetent army, with poorly maintained equipment, with crews with no training. Russia has shown that its military doctrine is crap.
Russia has shown that its military organization, structure, and leadership is a farce.
Will China remain intimidated???
I doubt that.
What would the world do if China attacked, conquered, and made Siberia part of China???
Who would oppose?? Who would stop China??
What could NATO or US do?
They may not like it, but what could anyone do??
It is only a matter of time.
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