Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "CaspianReport" channel.

  1.  @lucasgrey9794  You must be watching the Alternative History version of the Russo-Ukraine War. How is it in that alternate universe? Must be amazing.
    126
  2. What puzzles me is why Pakistan cannot see that by keeping tensions high with India that it is preventing Pakistan from developing economically and socially?? All its effort to hurt India have redounded back on Pakistan. Now Pakistani terror groups attack targets within Pakistan more than they attack India. I see Pakistan falling further behind the economic tigers of SE Asia. Even now, India regards Pakistan as nuisance, not a real threat. That is a big change from a few decades ago. India is pulling away, becoming wealthier and more powerful. Pakistan has no hope of being able to challenge or threaten India, unless they want to start a nuclear war.
    118
  3. France could play its game because it has Germany and Poland between it and Russia. Countries on the FRONT line, want US presence and assurance. That is why Germany wanted our troops and bases during the Cold War. Poland is on the front line in this New Cold War, so US troops and bases belong there for the same reasons.
    63
  4. No solution, no end in sight -- that is an astute conclusion. The geo-political situation is more complex than mentioned. India opposes China's South China Sea claims, India has naval docking faclities in VietNam. India is selling arms to VietNam. India is pushing China our of Sri Lanka, and Myanmar. Kashmir has gotten more tense. Lastly, the reports assertion that China has a game winning military advantage is wrong. China's military is weaker than it likes to admit. China would have great difficulty supporting a protracted conflict in Bhutan or Nepal.
    50
  5. Some good points...BUT... 1. Oil & gas are of NO importance. In 20 years, the world will have a renewable energy infrastructure, or be well on the way. Oil & gas will be obsolete. Also, oil and gas are everywhere. ALL continental shelves have reserves (laid down during Global Anoxic Events in the Mesozoic). 2. Russia still has shown no interest or ability to partake in the global economic community (unlike China). This will hold Russia back for a long time. 3. Resources??? That is 19th century thinking. Wealth comes from value adding, finance, and intellectual property. Look at how wealthy Holland, Switzerland, and Israel are. Few resources and almost no land. Yet they do very well. 4. St. Petersburg will be flooded. 5. China, US, and Europe are going to benefit greatly in financing, enabling, and implementing the move to renewable energy. Russia will be shut out of that. 6. Russia COULD benefit from a huge influx of climate refugees --- IF they were welcoming and geared to do that. But, Russia is nativistic, looking down on those not slavic or even Rus. Russia has no means to encourage or even allow immigrants to start businesses. Immigrant founded and owned businesses is one of the great sources of wealth for the United States. 7. Canada is the North American equivalent of Russia's Siberia. It will get more temperate, and become more livable. Americans will move there. Agriculture will increase there. When looking at North America as a whole, we are not as bad off as you might think. Florida and Gulf Coast will be flooded. But, the US has the flexibility to deal with the huge internal movements of people.
    18
  6. I think that independent membership in the EU is assumed by the Scots. However, the EU has become less attractive recently. The possible loss of Italy and Spain threatens the continued existence of the EU. I presume some Scots have started becoming wary of joining the EU. Being totally alone, is not attractive to them, I think.
    18
  7. And, Iran turns a blind eye to the Muslim Uyghur genocide. Money more important than religion or morality.
    18
  8. You missed it on this. The new weapons and training will put Ukraine at huge advantage. Plus, sanctions are really biting now. Russia will not be sble to continue the war to 2025 at most. Likely end this year.😊
    15
  9. Amazing analysis. You are great. I wonder how much longer this can go on. As the populations grow, I would expect the French ability to maintain these arrangements to become more difficult. Eventually, the system will break. All systems do.
    11
  10. Not sure that would really work in actual practice. First, affected nations may not respond with meek submission. They may defy. Second, much of the water in these rivers come from local monsoon rains, not from melting glaciers. So, big question for each river is, "how much of the water comes locally, and how much from China?" Third, the world may not approve, and China could be hit with sanctions, and boycotting of Chinese products. I don't think China can play the water card without suffering severe consequences.
    10
  11. What climate change??? Republicans passed a law in North Carolina outlawing global warming and climate change. Problem solved. (Those Republicans are so smart. Not, of course, as smart as the stable genius in the white house.)
    9
  12. Besides renewable energy, the rising seas will have PROFOUND impact. 1. River deltas like the Nile, Mekong, Ganges, Mississippi, Po, Rhine, Danube, and many others will be submerged. Huge amounts of producing agricultural land will be lost. How will those countries cope with that? 2. Huge populations will be displaced - Shanghai region (50-200 million people) Bangladesh (100 million), the US coasts (50 million), Vietnam (25 million), and so many others. 3. On the other hand, oil will no longer be important, and energy will be available in all countries. Energy will no longer be the cudgel that wealthy countries hold over poor countries without oil. 4. A huge problem will be the collapse of fisheries in the oceans due to ocean warming and over fishing. With the loss of that food source - how will dependent populations cope? 5. Agricultural production will likely decline. How much is the question. It is possible that it crashed, causing mass starvation the world over. Will a future world be able to support 9 billion people? Or, will several billions have to die, so the rest can live??? If so, which ones will be forced to die?
    8
  13. Interesting, but your analysis seems incomplete without looking at how Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, Greece, and Italy relate to it. Do they support it? What will they do to enable it, or help it succeed? Also, you touched on the developing Russia/Turkey axis --- that really needs analysis. How can these two long standing enemies become partners?? Why and How???? Keep up the good work.
    8
  14. Putin will go down in history as The Idiot. His moves always have the opposite of their intended effects.
    8
  15. Just reported -- world oil consumption will peak by 2023, and will go into permanent decline thereafter. WOW!! That means oil prices will plummet and never recover. Oil will cease being a strategic resource. Nations will stop caring what happens to Saudi Arabia and the Middle East. Who will protect the Saudi regime then?? Not the US. Not the EU. Nobody!! They are doomed.
    7
  16. I am surprised by your sloppy and inaccurate representation of what is going on there. You use the word "claims" very loosely, inferring that that claims of all the nations are similar. In fact, you said that the other nations "mirror" China's claims. They do not mirror China's claims. Let me explain. Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei make ONLY the EEZ claims as defined and allowed by the UN. China makes the UNIQUE claim of SOVEREIGNTY. "Sovereignty" means that China wants to treat the SCS as if it was an internal waterway, a river or estuary. If allowed, China would control all sea and air traffic. China could legally blockade the countries of the region, without it being an act of war. China challenges ships, but also challenges all planes flying over the SCS, forcing them to identify themselves and get China's "permission" to fly over.
    7
  17. Seems like Erdogan is copying China's approach to fueling growth with building. That is nuts. China is so big, that it has been able to kick its failure down the road. Turkey, being much smaller, won't be able to do that for long. PLUS, stealing from social programs is NOT a good idea. Eventually, people get pissed off. Erdogan, like many dictators, is suffering from ego mania. This will not end well for him, I think.
    6
  18. It is impossible to predict what an idiot will do. And, Pakistan is run by idiots. Why would they approve the killing of people at a hotel in Mumbai?? How could that possibly help Pakistan? Yet, there is no doubt that that raid was planned and executed from Pakistan. How could any country that amazingly stupid be relied upon to act rationally in the future?? I expect Pakistan to fall apart within the next 20 to 30 years. Regionalism is rising. Its leaders continue to disappoint and lose credibility. BTW... No company is going to put operations there when any person can be executed by being accused of blasphemy. Foreigners are not exempted. I would never go there, for i have no idea what trouble my big mouth would bring to me there. No freedom of speech or freedom of thought.
    6
  19. I am disappointed in you, Caspian Report. IMO, resources is the cover, not the reason for China's claims to the SCS. By controlling the SCS, China can effectively blockade Taiwan, Japan, and SK, thus reducing them to dependent states. China forces ships to stop in the SCS, thus reinforcing China's claims of sovereignty. Morover, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia would also be diminished to dependent states with full China sovereignty over the SCS. The issue is geo-political, not resources. Surprised you didn't see that. You are usually so good at geopolitics.
    6
  20. In 50 years, there will be 3 superpowers --- USA, China, and India. No other nation has the population, economy, and technology to be one. Russia is too small in population and economy. EU is disunited, with no nation being able to do it. Now, if the EU truly united into a single nation, then they could be a superpower, too.
    6
  21. Vietnam's exports to the US has increased 40% in last year, while China's exports to the US has decreased by over 13%. China was exporting 11 times Vietnam last year -- now it is about 7 times. The Trump/China trade war is having severe, and IMO long term impact on US/China trade. China's mercantilistic trade policies, its aggressive claims in the South China Sea, and belligerent border disputes with India & Japan are making countries & companies wary. Companies see increased risk, and are moving their supply chains away from China. Besides Vietnam, India, Malaysia and Indonesia have seen export gains to the US in the last year. China is the big loser. Can China stand the strain?? It is an export economy with falling exports. That cannot be good.
    5
  22. Who benefits the most from Global Warming? Probably Greenland. They can now grow crops. And, a tourism industry is booming. Mining is booming.
    5
  23. The US has been sending carriers and other ships through the Taiwan Strait constantly and continually to exercise and maintain our freedom of navigation through it.
    5
  24. North America has about 70% of the world's fresh water. 21% of world's fresh water is next to me in Lake Michigan and the Great Lakes. So, we are quite blessed.
    5
  25. The EU is not a Union. That is its problem. Moreover, the banks have control of EU fiscal and monetary policy. The forced tight monetary policies, create hardship on a massive scale. With this, the EU is losing credibility with the average citizens in Spain, Italy, and Greece. This disaffection will grow, and get worse. At some point, the very existence of the EU will be threatened. Too bad the banks know nothing but numbers, they miss the human element. Their stern control of the EU will lead to its destruction.
    5
  26. "One does not need to see the whole staircase, to take the first step". LOL, I love it. Shervin -- the metaphor king. For a guy whose first language is NOT English, you are very creative in it.
    5
  27. I am more optimistic. Peak Oil Demand is expected to happen by 2025, some think sooner. When global oil demand shrinks, the value of Arctic oil will plummet. In fact, oil+gas should cease to be strategic resources by 2040. As nations around the world implement renewable energy infrastructures. the need for oil+gas will no longer determine global politics and international relations. Why does everyone care who rules in the Middle East and what they do there?? Why does no one care about who rules in Central Africa or what they do there?? Yep, you guessed it - one has oil+gas, and the other does not (except for Nigeria, and still no one cares, LOL). When Arabia's oil is no longer desired, who will protect the Saudi monarchy? Same about the other oil based nations. Oil prices will plummet, and will stay down. So, who will spend extra $$ to extract Arctic oil? Who will buy it??
    4
  28. Another problem - China's foreign policy seems to get its inspiration of the attitudes of imperial China, where it viewed China as the center of the world, and ALL other countries were inferior, where laws and regulations apply to others but NOT to China. China regularly break contracts, agreements, and international law. It has no respect for the laws of other nations, the UN, or the World Court. China's disregard for laws and treaties is creating a wall in its relations with other countries. China is making itself into an "other", apart from the normal "world of nations". For China, everything becomes a "special case". For that to endure, then China must dominate militarily, as well as economically. I do not think that is possible in the long run.
    4
  29. Not "if", but "when". Russia will collapse, and this time, it will be much more profound than the collapse that occurred when the Soviet Union dissolved. It may not hold together, and China will likely seize Siberia. Putin should have known that the West was his friend. We supported Russia's 7% growth rate in the 2000's. We wanted trade & investment. We wanted to help Russia withstand China's future expansion attempts to take Siberia. [Yes, that will happen. China has said so. ] Now, Putin is destroying Russia's military and economy. Russia won't be able to withstand China.
    4
  30. Your explanation of what a "Deep State" is, was very enlightening. You articulated what I thought and felt better than I could. Thank you
    4
  31. I can see Lambert's difficulty in defining America. I view us as being Naval power first, and as a Sea State as well. The US is on a big island, not a continent like Asia. Canada and Mexico are the only other significant countries on North America, and we don't get the majority of our foreign trade with them. Since the majority of our trade comes over the sea, I think that defines us as a Sea Power primarily. Moreover, our Navy is used to enforce the world's Pax Americana, the world trade order that gives so many nations the wealth they enjoy. Even now, our Navy fights for freedom of navigation in the West Philippine Sea (SCS) and the Strait of Hormuz. Just as Rome suppressed piracy in the Mare Nostrum, the US suppresses pirates in Indian Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea.
    4
  32. I don't see how the EU will survive another 20 or 30 years. I don't understand how the EU can function without a central government, yet have a common currency and a common fiscal policy. The EU members will be divided into perpetual winners and losers - with Germany being the main winner. Germany may end up being the only winner. Building resentment will eventually make that unworkable. Greece, Italy, Spain will all eventually want out -- in fact, they will NEED to exit or face revolution. Eventually, Europe must decide whether they want to truly unite and become a real united country like the United States, or to fracture back into their pre-WW2 countries.
    4
  33. Basically, with no history of alliances (even Qing dynasty had no alliances), China does not know how it should treat allies. The old Middle Kingdom approach won't work. You cannot make allies of countries you treat as vassal states.
    4
  34. A&N guard and control the gates to the Malacca Strait. IF China starts a war, I hope that India will close the strait to China traffic.
    3
  35. Ukraine & Poland will be the largest non-Russian militaries in Europe. Germany does not count -- nice equipment, but no ammo. Less than a week's worth. Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic States, Finland, Norway, and UK are the only countries in Europe that US could rely on in a war with Russia. The rest of NATO are doubtful, IMO. France?? You never know what they will do or support. So we cannot rely on them. Germany?? Their anti-military attitudes has castrated their military -- no ammo. Italy? They have no idea what they want or what they believe in. The ultimate confused country. Spain & Portugal? They don't see themselves as party to any conflict with Russia. Greece? They are busy dealing with Turkey. Turkey? They would rather take over Greece and Syria. Plus, they will sell weapons to Russia. An ally in any form? Not at all. But, Poland, Ukraine, Baltic States, Finland, Sweden, and Norway would be wonderful allies.
    3
  36. I would like to hear more about Indonesia. It sits between Australia & China. It sits on the Strait of Malacca. It deals with invasions of China's fishing boats. Who are its allies?? Who are its rivals? Who is its enemy?? What is Indonesia's military and foreign policies? Can you do an analysis?? Thank you.
    3
  37. Seems to me that you can just as easily do a video "Why China MUST abandon Communism." Is Communism sustainable?? I don't think so. How and when it will end, I haven't a clue. But, it will end.
    3
  38.  @LeavingGoose046  Also, China has more ships, BUT, few are blue ocean ships, able to perform a mission more that 500 miles from China.
    3
  39. Huh?? Your analysis breaks down when you describe India's naval abilities. First, India DOES have bases on the Nicobar and Andeman islands. Secondly, India is building its naval capacity and its dominion over the Indian Ocean. India is getting the expensive P8 Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft. India holds annual naval exercises with US, Japan, and Australia. India is a member of the Quad. The Indian/China confrontation is moving to the ocean as both countries build up their navies. India is supplying Vietnam & Philippines with Brahmos & Akash missiles. Your analysis is usually pretty good. But, your analysis in this area is imbalanced, IMO.
    3
  40. Is this an IMF commercial?? You seem to thing the IMF is some wonderful agency that never makes mistakes. YOU ARE WRONG, imo. The IMF operates using Supply Side economics, which sees economies through a very narrow lens. Keynes and Galbraith had a broader and more complete understanding of economics. The IMF does NOT consider the social costs of their policies. In the end, the IMF only considers getting its money. It does not consider the stimulus effect of tax cuts, or the stimulus of distributing money to poor people. [Poor people spend 100% of what they get, stimulating the economy. Rich people getting the same amount, just park it, and remove it from the economy.]
    3
  41. Game changer?? Hardly. Shervan, you need to understand the differences between trade by sea and trade by road. The Silk Road died when the Portuguese found the sea passage to India and the Orient. Now, just because the states of Central Asia have gotten their act together and are allowing more trade by road will not change that fundamental. Increased road trade will help the land locked nations of Kazakhstan and the others. It will do little to change the trade patterns of the India or China for the VERY SIMPLE reason that not enough trade will go by road. Even if the roads are jammed with trucks, they cannot compete in either cost or volume with maritime trade.
    3
  42. As I see it, it is not a resurgent Russia that bothers everyone; it is a belligerent Russia that bothers. If Putin had focused on building the Russian economy, and the usage of soft power, I don't think anyone would have objected. Putin seems to view Russia's geographic issues or problems in 18th Century terms, and as if he was Peter the Great. His attack on Ukraine has created problems for Russia. I don't see it as a benefit, even though it does give better basing for its Black Sea Fleet. In 2010, it looked like Russia was going to participate fully with the western economy, and that it was likely going to experience the great economic growth that China had. But, nope. That is not what happened. Putin killed that idea. Now Russia languishes. It looks like it is stuck in a muddy pit.
    3
  43. The idea that the Muslim empires were singular with strong central authority is a myth. One reason the crusades were successful was that Islamic rule was highly fractured. The rulers of cities like Aleppo, Damascus, and Antioch might or might not help each other. They were really separate independent entities. During Ottoman Rule, Egypt was independent, even though it was supposedly "Ottoman". IMO, the main reason there is no Muslim "super state", is that the governing philosophies, institutions, and beliefs in the Muslim world are primitive. Saudi Arabia is a medieval monarchy, for instance. Muslim countries devolve into single man rule, like the rule of princes in the Middle Ages. There is no tradition of Parliaments, Assemblies, or other institutions based on voting. Democracy is alien to Muslims. Egypt and Pakistan have democratic institutions because of their brief rule by Britain. But, they are weak. The people, having no tradition of democracy, are comfortable with one man rule, and strive for that. What makes it worse is that the Koran endorses autocracy, not democracy. To many Muslims, democracy is alien and unacceptable. I doubt the Muslim world will change much in the next 100 years. In 2122, people will still be writing articles, asking "Why is the Muslim world poor?", "Why is the Muslim world undemocratic?", "Why can't modern high tech businesses succeed in Muslim countries?" The same questions that are asked now.
    3
  44. Keeping the wealth, and not sharing the wealth is not a good long term strategy. Sure, repressive measures work for awhile. But, eventually, cracks occur, and there is an uprising. It is impossible to predict what event will galvanize the protests, or know the resulting dynamic. Look at how the Arab Spring started in Tunisia with a street vendor being mishandled by a cop. When that happens, this event will give Ethiopia the right, the duty, to step in and restore order. Djibouti should be part of Ethiopia. One needs a port, and the other needs a country.
    3
  45. Hard power without Soft power means power that scares everyone. Without soft power, the Hard power seems out of control. No one knows which way the power is projected. People don't understand its purpose, or constraints. US has immense power, but it is constrained by our diplomatic objectives. People feel they know why and when it might be used. So, most feel very safe. Turkey, though, seems to be following Erdogan's whim, not a well thought out policy or philosophy. Chervan makes Turkey's hard policy seem to be seated in well defined concerns, with well defined goals. I don't think either is the case.
    3
  46. The range of Taiwan's HF-2e missiles is 1200 km, the distance to the 3 Gorges Dam. Do you think that is coincidence? I don't think so. If China attempts an invasion, I am confident that missiles will be sent to destroy it. Are China's missiles defenses up to the task?? I wonder. Taiwan has the most advanced chips to have advanced avionics, radar, jamming, and ECCM systems. Taiwan's missiles may be able to defeat China's defenses.
    3
  47. How much does Islam play a part? Notice how Muslim countries fightbeach other, and fight within themselves. Indonesia is the only Muslim country at peace with itself. What is it about Islam that breeds mistrust, hate, revenge, and inability to compromise?
    3
  48. The problem with war is that you never know what will happen. for example, Hitler had no idea that Britain would go to war over Poland. What's more he could not imagine that they would not welcome peace negotiations. Similarly, how would EU, UK, and US react if Russia invaded the Baltic states. No one lifted a finger when Putin took Crimea. No one did directly oppose Russia's war in Ukraine. Sure, some weapons, and verbal support, but not much else. Kind of like the time Hitler took the Rhineland, Austria, and Czechoslovakia with little opposition. Would the Balkan States be "Poland" for the EU and US??? Would that be the tripwire?? No one can tell. Putin cannot tell. I think it is fairly likely that Putin will miscalculate one of these days, and the western powers will respond in force.
    3
  49. If China takes Siberia -- should the US take that part of Siberia that is close to Alaska? Should the US take Kamchatka? Japan should be ready to take the Kurils and Sakhalin, if the opportunity presents itself. Not let those islands fall to China. This may happen since Russia may not have the strength to keep Siberia and related possessions.
    3
  50. Tell that to Belgium and Holland in 1940 -- occupied by Nazi Germany.
    2