Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "CaspianReport" channel.

  1. Also, China's claims to the SCS have f**k all to do with resources. If that was the case, it would claim EEZ rights. BUT -- China claims FULL SOVEREIGNTY. Why??? Simple. if recognized, then most trade in the area would be controlled by China. Japan, Taiwan, ROK, PH, VT, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia would become vassal states to China. When it comes to China --- it is NOT about resources and money --- It is about POWER and CONTROL. In your analyses of China, keep that in mind.
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  2. No one cares what you want. Corporations and the uber rich own and control Canada, just like they own and control the US. You and I will have no say in our future, unless we take our governments back.
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  3.  @StayActive98  Not true. Sea level rise will wipe Netherlands off the map. Venice and the Po River valley will be gone someday. Florida will be gone. These areas are developed. Bolivia, Peru, Ethiopia, and many other less developed countries will not be affected much by sea level rise. Who will be affected will be mostly determined by geography.
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  4. I think that Chinese activity and ambitions in the South Pacific have reached their zenith. The economic and banking problems of China are profound, and will reduce China's ability to project economic, and military power. China' money and market are not as attractive as it was until recently. The money is much less. Bigger impact is the fact that China is closing its market to outside investment and access. Xi's policies make me think that he and the CCP did not realize how much access to their market shaped the decision making of companies and countries. Xi seems to have thought that shutting off that access would have no impact. How wrong that is.
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  5. Regarding war -- wars happen when leaders misjudge each other. WW1 and WW2 both started that way. The Korean War started with a misreading of Truman's response to a Russia backed conquest of SK. It expanded when MacArthur misread China's response. Both Chinese and Indian leaders cannot back down. They are prisoners of their own rhetoric.
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  6. This was published August of 2016 -- we need an update. Please do this again.
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  7. There were several causes. Like always, reality is more complicated. First, trade with the orient moved to Portuguese, Dutch, and English ships, thus starving the silk road. The once trading monopoly that the Ottoman's enjoyed ended. Second, the western European development of the corporation enabled western Europe to manage capital and investment better. Western Europe slowly became wealthier and more powerful than Eastern Europe and the Ottoman Empire. Third, the development of the policy of "separation of Church and State" that occurred after the Thirty Year's War freed Western Europe from the issues of religion, bringing on the Enlightenment. Fourth, the overseas colonies and trading empires of Spain, England, France, and Holland increased their wealth and power immensely. Fifth, the maturity of the modern nation state made the empire model of governing obsolete. The Ottoman Empire could not manage its resources as efficiently, and it was in constant struggles for succession and political power. The palace intrigues of Topkapi may make for great reading, but it makes for lousy governing. BTW..Putin's apparent attempt to impose an "empire model" to Russia will also end in failure, I predict. He will seem to succeed for a while due to the strength of his personality. Eventually, he will age or die. When he goes, Russia will have the eternal succession problem of empires. Succession struggles weakened Rome, Turkey, and China. They will weaken Russia, too. One day there will be a Democratic Revolution in Russia. I just wonder how long it will take.
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  8. Very interesting. A good summation of the history and current situation. However -- Erdogan's policies and attitudes need to be considered. Erdogan's relationship with the US and NATO is conflicted, at best. Why did Erdogan anger EU and US, forcing the cancellation of F-35's to Turkey?? Why would Erdogan place getting S-400 missiles over F-35's?? Like you say, Russia is a traditional enemy of Turkey -- so why the acquisition of the S-400s?? Russia has Crimea -- so why the continued actions in eastern Ukraine?? What more does Putin want there?
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  9. It is more complicated than that. If tonnage was the what mattered, then Italy would have ruled the Mediterranean in WW2 with its larger navy. Naval tradition and comfort of dealing with naval combat China lacks. The US has always been a naval oriented country, with a strong naval tradition.
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  10. Once, the nations on the periphery suffered from isolation, and so could be intimidated and coerced. China could deal with Korea, Vietnam, Mongolia, and the others on a one-by-one basis. China was a natural hegemon. The modern world is entirely different. Maritime trade dominates, not overland trade. All, except Mongolia, are well connected to the world. None are dependent on China. They desire trade, but they are not wholly dependent upon it. Oddly, China's recent rise as a manufacturing behemoth created a temporary situation that mimicked the old situation where China was a natural hegemon. Xi and the CCP think that China is such a hegemon again. They are wrong. Already, manufacturing is moving to other countries. The temporary situation is now changing. The regional countries are now rising (which was inevitable). So, China is overplaying its hand, because it has misinterpreted its situation. Its power position is not what it thinks it is. China's actions have the most important effect of coalescing its enemies. Actually creating enemies.
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  11. The nations of the region are ALL building up their navies, and stockpiling their missiles. Taiwan probably has over 1,000 HF 2, 2e, and 3 missiles. Japan has threatened war if China attacks Taiwan. Meanwhile, China's economy will collapse.
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  12. As renewable energy takes over our power plants and cars, I would expect the value of fossil fuel resources to become inconsequential. In the past, wars were fought over energy resources. Access to oil determined the strategies and actions of the belligerents in WW2, for instance. With energy available to everyone, no matter where they are, what will be the cause of any resource wars in the future?? If there are no resource wars, will there be wars???
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  13. Seems that Communism cannot be abandoned, yet, it is also unsustainable. Something will have to give.
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  14. Delusional, not ambitious.
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  15. Russia's energy problem is much worse than merely having to extract from remote areas. Pipelines can always be built. No, the real problem is that the world is moving towards renewable energy power and electric cars. Oil is in an inexorable decline as a geostrategic resource. By 2050, oil will be largely irrelevant. In fact, the coming of the decline in peak oil demand will happen before 2030. After that, oil prices will plummet and stay low permanently. This will be a body blow to Russia's economy. Russia will have to finally leave its 18th Century thinking behind. It must embrace trade, international cooperation, rule of law, and private enterprise. If not, its demise will be profound, and likely very bloody.
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  16. Ah, yes, the Great Emu War. Where the hyper-intelligent crafty animals, the Emus, defeated a modern nation. The Emus proved Sun-Tzu's adage - never underestimate your enemy.
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  17. If you said "very improbable" for Russia to become a democracy, I would agree totally with you. But, you said "impossible". People can surprise you. For instance, look at Taiwan. Founded as military dictatorship by Chiang Kai Shek, and with no tradition of democracy, the odds were against it. Same with South Korea. Now, being associated with US means little -- Saudi Arabia disproves that. IMO, the biggest barrier to democracy for Russia is the distorted world view its people have due to 100 years of misinformation.
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  18. As for Taiwan, China hasn't a snowball's chance in hell to succeed in invading Taiwan, so I don't see ANY possibility of war there. India or Vietnam are the most likely, since they have land borders.
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  19. Unfortunately, in South America, they have an ignorant understanding of economics, business, and how to fund social services. IMO, this comes from European socialism. Although Progressivism appears similar to Socialism, it differs in one very crucial area -- ===> Progressivism was started by small businessmen in the Republican Party. Therefore, Progressives tend to be fiscally conservative. That is why in the US, Social Security and Medicare have been so financially successful. Currently, growth of Progressivism (which I am, btw) has brought the debate of how expanded health care will be paid for. I am for it, but it must be done in a way that is affordable AND sustainable. In the long run, nations, like families, can only buy what they can afford. First, a country should strengthen and expand its economy, expanding its middle class. Then, and only then, can significant monies be spent on social services. A big mistake is made, I think, when poor countries try to behave like a European country with a mature economy, and then overspend on social services. Even in Europe, they seem to be having that problem in Greece and maybe Spain. That needs to be avoided. It could lead to a collapse of the economy, and the collapse of governing institutions.
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  20. WOW...this video needs updating. Since 2019, Xi has done his very best to piss everyone off. He has made territorial claims on India, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, and RUSSIA! ! ! That's right -- Russia. China wants Siberia back. How can China hope to make the transition to a consumption based economy by destroying its trade and diplomatic relations?? The making of arms and munitions is inefficient, and does not support economic expansion. IMO, Xi and China are dissipating the resources and wealth that was accumulated since 1980. Australia is turning against China -- cancelling its Darwin port deal. China has destroyed India as a huge future growth market for China. Even Duterte of Philippines has turned against China. Meanwhile, US and other nations are selling arms to Taiwan. It is now impossible for China to invade Taiwan. I think China has peaked, and has started its decline. This will end badly for China. Personally, I don't think China will survive as a united country. I expect it to fall apart into several countries.
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  21. If Russia attacked the Baltic States, that would be a declaration of war on NATO. Don't think that the theater of conflict will be limited to the Baltic States, nor even limited to military conflict. IMO, NATO would extend the war to the economic sphere. A TOTAL economic blockade would be imposed. NO imports/exports between member countries and Russia. NO financial or banking transactions by Russia or Russians will be permitted. NO commercial flights. ALL contracts between corporations in NATO and Russia will be cancelled. Russian warships around the world would be sunk. The NATO strategy would be to make the war a war of ATTRITION. Russia would need a quick victory. Russia would lose.
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  22. Huge blow?? Not really. An obvious development, IMO.
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  23. How can Portugal claim areas that are NOT part of a continental shelf? If Ireland's claims stop at the end of the shelf, then so, too, must Portugal's. If not, then it will be open season on the open seas beyond the continental shelves.
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  24. Disagree. The US developed its interior using programs that lured people, railroads, industry, and commerce. Railroads were given huge swaths of land to lay tracks. People were given free land, if they worked it. Industry and commerce naturally followed. China could become a liberal democracy and develop its interior much more efficiently than it is doing now. To say China is wedded to Communism is to say that Communism is the best way to develop a country. Since you say that, Chervan, you must be a Communist. Are you a Communist?
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  25.  @goodwill4735  Pakistan will be a colony of China only as long as it wants to be. Pakistan put the chains on. China did not invade, and has no troops to control. Seems to me, that Pakistan's hate of India has so warped its thinking, that it thinks being a willing slave to China will help it compete with India. Instead, it will be held down and held back by China. Too bad, Pakistan had such promise back in 1948.
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  26.  @RabbitShirak  Shervan is great at geopolitical analysis. I would not trust his military analysis. Apparently, he thinks that no movement of the lines is the same as stalemate. When one side is losing 5 to 7 times the men as the other, that is NOT a stalemate. Ukraine is grinding Russia down, while training, equipping and preparing their counter-offensive, which will be a war of movement. Russia fights like its WW1. Ukraine will do modern warfare. The Russian army will collapse in several regions, I expect. Far from a "forever war".
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  27. There is always an exception. 😎👌
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  28. China is a weak link. Strong, effective, military alliance cannot happen without close trade relations, and mutually supporting economies. US has that with ALL its allies.
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  29. One thing you forgot to mention is what is happening to the Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia. They are the source of the teachings and money that drive Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, Al Shabbab, ISIS, and all the other Islamic movements around the world. Is their influence increasing or declining?? How will that influence change as Saudi Arabia gets poorer from the decline of world oil??
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  30. 45% of Americans support Trump and the Fascist GOP, so even a democratic country could lose its democracy. It is doubtful that the American Republic will still be a Republic in 100 or 200 years. To think Russia will become one in the next 10 to 15 years is laughable. Impossible.
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  31. Yadda yadda yadda.. These facilities are all being done by edict. Are they really backed up by sound economics and market forces. Nope. How is the big port in Sri Lanka doing? That Chinese port was supposed to be so great, and make Sri Lanka wealthy. Instead, it is a burden, and China is trying to use it to control Sri Lanka. (Fortunately, India is helping out on that.) Sea shipping is cheaper than trucking. So, does the long haul truck trips across Tibet to China make sense? Maybe. But, it would have been better if the roads were built because of existing demand, not be government edict. In long run, these inefficiencies will cost China dearly.
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  32. Disagree on Taiwan. China will NOT see it as an opportunity. On the contrary, the unity of the west, and the depth of its sanctions will make concerned. A response of same sanctions on China would devastate China's economy. PLUS, China uses Russian military doctrine which is showing its incompetence. China has no chance against a well armed determined foe.
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  33. India is showing its true colors. It aligns with autocratic inhumane regimes. It even sides with its "enemy", China, in supporting Russia. I once saw India and US as natural allies, with disagreements. Now, I see India as being fundamentally opposed to the United States and the current world order, just like China. The only difference, is that India does not want China on top. But, India does not want the current US/Europe led order. India is no ally of the United States, and India is no supporter of democracies in the world.
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  34. IMO - yes, Ukraine can take Crimea. To me, the best way would be as a siege, not an assault. 1. Take Zaporhezia, and cut off the land corridor for Russian support. 2. Destroy the Kerch bridge to cut off support using it. 3. Use rockets to cut off any maritime and air supplied support for Crimea. 4. With Crimea cut off -- impose a tight blockade. 5. Be patient. Continue using HIMARS to kill commanders and leaders inside Crimea. Don't allow Crimeans to escape, or for Russian troops to be evacuated or replaced (as best as possible.). Russia will be impotent to do anything. Everyone will see how powerless Putin is to stop this. Eventually, Putin will sue for peace, or, most likely, replaced.
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  35. The profound observation of Lambert seems to be the connection between representative government, and being a Sea State. Athens, Venice, Netherlands, England, and the US I posit are too many to dismiss this proposition as coincidence. There is something about ocean borne trade that compels representative government. While, continental trade compels centralized authoritarian government. All the states involved in the Silk Road, and other trans-continental trade, were all imperial governments, or were trending that way. China, Russia, Persia, Sassanid, Byzantine, Ottoman, and so many others, all followed the same pattern. Even the states of Africa involved in the trans-Saharan caravans, all were centralized with dynastic rule. Of course, things are more complicated than that. Switzerland has representative government, and it is definitely NOT a sea power. The other observation is the ALL the examples of representative government are all in Europe. Asia and Africa had no representative governments, until UK and Netherlands brought them. Now, some Native American tribes had representative government - namely the Iroquois and Illinois Confederacies. In fact, the concept of the Eternal Flame that burns in Arlington Cemetery came from the Iroquois. The Iroquois Confederacy inspired Benjamin Franklin to propose the United States in 1756. Those Native America tribes were not sea powers in any way, yet they had a representative form of government, with no kings or inherited dynastic rule. Like I said -- history, societies, and cultures are always more complicated than they may seem at first.
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  36. Actually, I see more opportunity for the US & Europe to benefit from helping countries around the world cope with climate change. When has Russia helped others?? Russia has no tradition of foreign aid and assistance, except as a dominating power with its satellites. When people from South East Asia, China, Africa, and South America emigrate??? Where will they go? Russia? That's laughable. In the short run, refugees may be problem, causing strains and dislocations. BUT, in the long run, they create a bond between the nations. The US has bonds with Germany, Ireland, Philippines, Greece, Italy, and so many other countries because of the immigrants from those countries whose descendants now live here. Will Russia ever have that?? Will they welcome or allow that?? Never. Global Warming COULD be a game changer for Russia -- but it won't be. Putin is too wedded to reviving the Tsarist past. Russia is too myopic, and inflexible. If an opportunity, it will be an opportunity lost.
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  37. China's regional countries were willing, eager, to be its trade partners. They sought its friendship and favor. BUT, Xi's aggressive policies have made enemies of them. Now, they will be joining an anti-China alliance, similar to the anti-Soviet NATO alliance. China will be shut out of trade and financial markets for a generation. It did not have to be this way. But, maybe it did. How else would China be able to move on from its hegemonic past?
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  38.  @ercan1001  I believe the curse is "May you have an interesting life."
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  39. I disagree. The potential volume is just too small. A single rail line, or even two, is not enough to significantly change trade patterns for Europe or China. The Silk Road, transited by camels and horses, was significant in its day. No longer. Now the volume of maritime trade dwarfs what can be done by two rail lines HOWEVER, it will likely impact the nations of Central Asia. It will increase their connection to the outside world. Their small size means that the increased volume of trade will be significant for them. In turn, this could effect their loyalties. I wonder how that will turn out.
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  40. Very good. But, you left out the EEZ claims, and the race for the oil & gas.
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  41. This needs to be updated since the Russo-Ukraine War.
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  42. The US is not nearly as distracted as it may seem. Remember, the Great Depression and the Dust Bowl did NOT distract us from the coming of WW2. The US has had recent supply deals with Taiwan to supply Harpoon missiles, F-16 jets, AGM-88 missiles, radars, reconnaissance planes, training, and more. PLUS, Taiwan has some excellent domestically developed missiles, including long range cruise missiles. China's chance of successfully invading Taiwan is about as close to zero as it can be. Would Xi survive a failed invasion where 30+ ships are sunk, and 50,000 PLA troops lie at the bottom of the sea??? I doubt it.
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  43. An invasion would be costly, take a long time, and would fail. Odds of success are very low. What would Xi do when his shiny new navy is at the bottom of the sea, and over 100,000 PLA are killed? His nice new Air Force would be destroyed, too.
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  44.  @muhammadtahirumer4982  Why would US kill Zia?? At that time, US supported Pakistan. Plus, Pakistan access to Central Asia would have been liked by US, because that would have meant a stabilized Afghanistan. That would have meant that the Central Asian states would have turned away from Russia and China and towards Pakistan. The US government would have loved that. US had nothing to do with Zia's death.
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  45. Indian media should ignore A&N. Their importance should be downplayed. In the US, there is little mention of our bases, no matter how important. The less talk about them, the better.
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  46. @dead or alive The struggles in Columbia, Venezuela, Guatemala, and Bolivia were NEVER accompanied with claims to be serving Christ when they killed They used nationalism, or the class struggle rhetoric of Communism. But, never God or religion.
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  47. Shervan, you disappoint me. ONLY China claims the South China Sea. Vietnam, PH, etc only want to exercise their EEZ rights, given to them by the UNCLOS. Don't be like the news channels that conflate the two.
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  48. BTW - regarding Nordstram sabotage -- I suspect Poland. It could not allow Germany to become too dependent on Russia. The times when Germany & Russia allied against Poland -- Poland was divided - TWICE. Poland cannot allow that.
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  49. So, destabilizing Afghanistan, and creating the Taliban has not really worked out well for Pakistan. Imagine that. Is there something in the water of the Indus that makes Pakistan rulers so stupid???
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  50. One more thing, if Russia does not get its act together, and leave 18th Century thinking behind, it will become poorer and poorer. Already Russia cannot afford the advanced weapons it designs - see the cancelled SU-57 and slow acquisition of Armata tanks. That may lead to a time when Russia will not be able to prevent a Chinese taking of parts of Siberia. China claims it is an Arctic power. How can it claim that, UNLESS China has intentions on getting Siberia?????
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