Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "CaspianReport"
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Also, China's claims to the SCS have f**k all to do with resources.
If that was the case, it would claim EEZ rights.
BUT -- China claims FULL SOVEREIGNTY.
Why???
Simple. if recognized, then most trade in the area would be controlled by China.
Japan, Taiwan, ROK, PH, VT, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia would
become vassal states to China.
When it comes to China --- it is NOT about resources and money ---
It is about POWER and CONTROL.
In your analyses of China, keep that in mind.
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There were several causes. Like always, reality is more complicated.
First, trade with the orient moved to Portuguese, Dutch, and English ships, thus starving the silk road. The once trading monopoly that the Ottoman's enjoyed ended.
Second, the western European development of the corporation enabled western Europe to manage capital and investment better. Western Europe slowly became wealthier and more powerful than Eastern Europe and the Ottoman Empire.
Third, the development of the policy of "separation of Church and State" that occurred after the Thirty Year's War freed Western Europe from the issues of religion, bringing on the Enlightenment.
Fourth, the overseas colonies and trading empires of Spain, England, France, and Holland increased their wealth and power immensely.
Fifth, the maturity of the modern nation state made the empire model of governing obsolete. The Ottoman Empire could not manage its resources as efficiently, and it was in constant struggles for succession and political power. The palace intrigues of Topkapi may make for great reading, but it makes for lousy governing.
BTW..Putin's apparent attempt to impose an "empire model" to Russia will also end in failure, I predict. He will seem to succeed for a while due to the strength of his personality. Eventually, he will age or die. When he goes, Russia will have the eternal succession problem of empires. Succession struggles weakened Rome, Turkey, and China. They will weaken Russia, too. One day there will be a Democratic Revolution in Russia. I just wonder how long it will take.
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Once, the nations on the periphery suffered from isolation, and so could be intimidated and coerced.
China could deal with Korea, Vietnam, Mongolia, and the others on a one-by-one basis.
China was a natural hegemon.
The modern world is entirely different. Maritime trade dominates, not overland trade.
All, except Mongolia, are well connected to the world. None are dependent on China.
They desire trade, but they are not wholly dependent upon it.
Oddly, China's recent rise as a manufacturing behemoth created a temporary situation
that mimicked the old situation where China was a natural hegemon.
Xi and the CCP think that China is such a hegemon again.
They are wrong.
Already, manufacturing is moving to other countries. The temporary situation is now changing.
The regional countries are now rising (which was inevitable).
So, China is overplaying its hand, because it has misinterpreted its situation.
Its power position is not what it thinks it is.
China's actions have the most important effect of coalescing its enemies.
Actually creating enemies.
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Unfortunately, in South America, they have an ignorant understanding of economics, business, and how to fund social services. IMO, this comes from European socialism.
Although Progressivism appears similar to Socialism, it differs in one very crucial area --
===> Progressivism was started by small businessmen in the Republican Party. Therefore, Progressives tend to be fiscally conservative. That is why in the US, Social Security and Medicare have been so financially successful.
Currently, growth of Progressivism (which I am, btw) has brought the debate of how expanded health care will be paid for. I am for it, but it must be done in a way that is affordable AND sustainable.
In the long run, nations, like families, can only buy what they can afford.
First, a country should strengthen and expand its economy, expanding its middle class.
Then, and only then, can significant monies be spent on social services.
A big mistake is made, I think, when poor countries try to behave like a European country with a mature economy, and then overspend on social services. Even in Europe, they seem to be having that problem in Greece and maybe Spain. That needs to be avoided. It could lead to a collapse of the economy, and the collapse of governing institutions.
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WOW...this video needs updating.
Since 2019, Xi has done his very best to piss everyone off.
He has made territorial claims on India, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, and RUSSIA! ! !
That's right -- Russia. China wants Siberia back.
How can China hope to make the transition to a consumption based economy by destroying its trade and diplomatic relations??
The making of arms and munitions is inefficient, and does not support economic expansion.
IMO, Xi and China are dissipating the resources and wealth that was accumulated since 1980.
Australia is turning against China -- cancelling its Darwin port deal.
China has destroyed India as a huge future growth market for China.
Even Duterte of Philippines has turned against China.
Meanwhile, US and other nations are selling arms to Taiwan.
It is now impossible for China to invade Taiwan.
I think China has peaked, and has started its decline.
This will end badly for China.
Personally, I don't think China will survive as a united country.
I expect it to fall apart into several countries.
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The profound observation of Lambert seems to be the connection between representative government, and being a Sea State.
Athens, Venice, Netherlands, England, and the US I posit are too many to dismiss this proposition as coincidence.
There is something about ocean borne trade that compels representative government.
While, continental trade compels centralized authoritarian government.
All the states involved in the Silk Road, and other trans-continental trade, were all imperial governments, or were trending that way.
China, Russia, Persia, Sassanid, Byzantine, Ottoman, and so many others, all followed the same pattern.
Even the states of Africa involved in the trans-Saharan caravans, all were centralized with dynastic rule.
Of course, things are more complicated than that. Switzerland has representative government, and it is definitely NOT a sea power.
The other observation is the ALL the examples of representative government are all in Europe. Asia and Africa had no representative governments, until UK and Netherlands brought them. Now, some Native American tribes had representative government - namely the Iroquois and Illinois Confederacies. In fact, the concept of the Eternal Flame that burns in Arlington Cemetery came from the Iroquois. The Iroquois Confederacy inspired Benjamin Franklin to propose the United States in 1756.
Those Native America tribes were not sea powers in any way, yet they had a representative form of government, with no kings or inherited dynastic rule.
Like I said -- history, societies, and cultures are always more complicated than they may seem at first.
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Actually, I see more opportunity for the US & Europe to benefit from helping countries around the world cope with climate change. When has Russia helped others?? Russia has no tradition of foreign aid and assistance, except as a dominating power with its satellites.
When people from South East Asia, China, Africa, and South America emigrate??? Where will they go? Russia? That's laughable.
In the short run, refugees may be problem, causing strains and dislocations. BUT, in the long run, they create a bond between the nations.
The US has bonds with Germany, Ireland, Philippines, Greece, Italy, and so many other countries because of the immigrants from those countries whose descendants now live here.
Will Russia ever have that?? Will they welcome or allow that?? Never.
Global Warming COULD be a game changer for Russia -- but it won't be.
Putin is too wedded to reviving the Tsarist past. Russia is too myopic, and inflexible.
If an opportunity, it will be an opportunity lost.
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The US is not nearly as distracted as it may seem.
Remember, the Great Depression and the Dust Bowl did NOT distract us from the coming of WW2.
The US has had recent supply deals with Taiwan to supply Harpoon missiles, F-16 jets, AGM-88 missiles, radars, reconnaissance planes, training, and more.
PLUS, Taiwan has some excellent domestically developed missiles, including long range cruise missiles.
China's chance of successfully invading Taiwan is about as close to zero as it can be.
Would Xi survive a failed invasion where 30+ ships are sunk, and 50,000 PLA troops lie at the bottom of the sea???
I doubt it.
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