Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "CaspianReport"
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Now compound China's demographic problem with decoupling and the loss of its export markets.
Xi's antagonistic and bullying foreign policy will make China's problem much worse.
As western manufacturing moves its factories and suppliers to India, Vietnam, and other countries, China's economy is going to suffer greatly. It is already losing its foreign currency reserves.
Its military challenges, and fishing fleet aggression is causing Japan, SK, PH, VT, India, and other countries to increase their defense spending. China's expansion of its military will not result in such a huge military that its neighbors will be over awed.
Their military expansion, and likely coalescence into an anti-China alliance, like NATO, will actually over-awe China.
IMO - China is heading for disaster.
A disaster so large, that the CCP will likely not survive.
A disaster so large, that the center may not hold, and China will fall apart, like it has many times in its history.
I think the people of China would be better served by multiple states.
Southern China, Central China, Manchuria, Xinjiang, and Tibet all deserve separate governments.
Even more states may develop, if such a collapse occurs.
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Sorry, I don't understand.
WHY, oh WHY, would a company send product by rail across Africa by land, when they can put it on a boat in Lagos or another port and send it up to Spain, France, Italy, UK, or Germany directly???
Also, getting product overland to Algiers or Tunis, still means product has to be put on ships to get to Europe.
I don't see how much is gained.
For import/export, the sea lanes should maintain their predominance, IMO.
For people transport, airliners is the best way to go, IMO.
Shervan, I think you got this one wrong.
To convince me otherwise, you need to show how and why ocean transport doesn't work as well.
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In the next few decades, sea level rise will being changing geopolitics and strategy.
1. Sea level has already started, although very slightly. This rise will accelerate, and then accelerate more. Later this century, it may be rising by several inches per year. After 2100, the annual rise will be be even greater.
2. Moving our cities and populations from the coasts will be a challenge for many countries. I suspect that many will have difficulty affording it.
3. Meanwhile, global food production will begin to plummet, I think. If so, that will cause famine, death, and forced migrations. How will governments react? With compassion? Or, with bullets???
4. Will countries go to war to seize land as their land shrinks by submersion into the sea?
5. Meanwhile, heat waves will begin to make the tropics uninhabitable (see Paul Beckwith's videos). What will happen to those nations? What will they do? Will there be wars??
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What are the biggest obstacles to China's growth in power. There are several.
1. Leadership. Xi is destroying China's reputation. The CCP disavowal of treaties, laws, and agreements, make it very difficult for other nations and companies to trust agreements.
2. Geography. China is hemmed in by the inner ring of islands - Taiwan & Philippines. Of course, this is only a problem if China goes to war. In peacetime, they are no barrier to trade, commerce, and finance.
3. Economy - once a strength, now a weakness. China's export led economy is now vulnerable to other nations reducing their imports. China is already suffering. It's foreign currency reserves are tumbling. Its banks are already collapsing. This will get worse. Much worse.
4. Institutions - China has turned its back on international institutions - the UN, the World Court. By defying UNCLOS, China has set itself apart from the world community. By invading EEZ's around the world in its insatiable appetite for fish, China is creating ill will globally.
Now, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, and others have to spend more on their Coast Guards to protect their own EEZ.
This violation of international law puts China outside of the world club of nations.
5. Poor regional relations. One of the long term strengths of the US has been the good relations it has had with its neighbors - Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Caribbean. As China's relations with its neighbors decline, its influence, and thus its power declines. This happens even though China's military grows in strength. Soon, the Quad will grow into an anti-China military alliance. Its power will decline further.
In the end, the ability of China to control the waters of the rivers of Asia will be a minor plus, not a decisive factor at all.
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I understand your assertion. However, power poorly used, can backfire.
Of late, China has shown to be diplomatically very clumsy.
China has created a backlash of resentment, fear, and even hate.
The bullying and threats has stimulated the creation of an anti-China coalition called the Quad.
Soon, an anti-China alliance, similar to NATO, will likely be created.
India and the ASEAN nations that are downstream of China's rivers, are not powerless.
They, too, have the collective ability to make or break China.
If China uses the rivers to directly extort concessions, then those countries will see even more the need for collective action.
Seeing China as the main regional threat will compel them to put aside minor differences and squabbles,
so they can unite against China.
This is what I fell will happen.
I feel so strongly, that I see it as a very certain inevitability.
It WILL happen.
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Shervan, I would like to hear your analysis of what the geopolitical arrangement of the world will be
after the age of oil.
Peak Oil Demand will happen in the next few years. After that, oil demand will decrease until it becomes inconsequential.
Solid State batteries, which can be charged in 15 minutes, will be a game changer -- propelling the acceptance of electric cars to the mass public.
When access to oil is no longer relevant to economies and to militaries, how will that change national politics? National rivalries?
The Middle East has been the focus of geopolitics since WW2 because of oil. Will our concern for the Middle East decline to the level of concern felt for Central Africa or South America?
I think so. Why would anyone care about Saudi Arabia anymore???
Why would US or Europe defend the oil states??
Being less wealthy, the Muslim states may not have the money to fund the terror groups like Boko Harram, Al Shabbab, and so many others. So, will there be a change in world terrorism??
Won't non-oil countries benefit? Could the non-oil desert states of Africa, with their constant sunshine, enable them to become rich in energy?? Could they become the next centers of manufacturing??
BTW -- IMO, manufacturing will be more dependent on access to cheap energy, than it will be to cheap labor. So, could Mauritania, Niger, Chad, Morocco, and Algeria become manufacturing behemoths?
The assumptions we have operated with for so long will no longer be valid.
How will this change the world?
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Shervan, I recommend you read Russia Under the Old Regime, and Russia Under the New Regime.
Pipes makes a good case that Communism, especially Stalinism, is really a repackaging of Tsarism.
Similarly, Maoism is a repackaging of the Chinese Imperial system.
We are really seeing that with Xi, who behaves as if China is the Middle Kingdom, and the world should kowtow.
China MUST give up this system.
Taiwan did, and look how prosperous it is.
South Korea gave up the Chosun system, and look how prosperous it is.
Japan gave up Bushido and Emperor worship, and look how prosperous it is.
The nations of Asia prosper when they give up the imperial forms of governments
that were used across Asia for centuries.
Similarly, in Europe, as the states of western Europe evolved away from monarchical government,
they became more prosperous.
That is why the Netherlands became wealthy, while Spain, despite its Empire, became poor.
As that spread in Europe, the wealth spread with it.
The system of trade, corporations, banking, universities, freedom of movement,
and the elimination of aristocracies is at its root.
China has a new aristocracy in the CCP, denies freedom of movement, and cripples its corporations.
The CCP is the garrote around China's neck.
China MUST destroy the CCP, if it ever hopes to achieve sustainable prosperity.
IMHO, of course.
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I do not accept that the frequent incursions of Taiwan's ADIZ is a problem for Taiwan, but not for China.
First, China's jet aircraft require more maintenance, and have shorter lives than Taiwan's American jets.
Second, China's aircraft have to fly longer on a mission than Taiwan's jets have to fly responding. So, there will be more wear and tear on China's jets than Taiwan's.
Third, Taiwan is a developed wealthy country, and can easily afford the fuel. In fact, China's continued incursions will train and motivate Taiwan's pilots and planners.
Fourth, China's frequent incursions and threats are driving Taiwan's citizens to be against China, and against re-unification.
All in all, China's tactics are counter-productive, and actually stupid, IMO.
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BTW - If China is allowed make the SCS sovereign territory - then the following countries will become dependent on China since China will control their maritime trade ----
Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, India, and Australia.
All those countries (if they are smart) should join an alliance with the US and UK to oppose China's SCS claims.
China's bullying tactics should not be tolerated.
1. Sanctions should be imposed to punish bullying
2. Western corporations should be dissuaded, even penalized, from having manufacturing operations in China.
3. Member navies should maintain 24/7/365 presence in the South China Sea.
4. Any shipping vessel that replies to China's requests for identity and permission should be penalized by their flag country. China should not be allowed to behave like they have authority over the SCS.
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@Dumertone Thank you very much for the info. Try as I might, I only know what I read. You live there. You know so much more on a deeper level. But, much of what you said validated much of what I already thought. Putin fears and hates democracy more than anything.
However, Turkey & Russia are traditional enemies - for centuries. Pissing on your allies is not usually a good idea, IMO. At some point, Turkey may have to face Russia on his own. If you don't act like an ally, you may not be treated as an ally.
Much more divergence from NATO, and the US could move its Incerlik base to Greek Cyprus (UK has base there). Then Turkey could be kicked out of NATO.
From commenters from Turkey, it seems a lot of Turks are not happy with Erdogan's shift away from Europe. If so, than he may have to be harsher to keep his power. Erdogan is not in the same unassailable position Putin is in, I think.
I don't see a Putin/Erdogan alliance, either.
So, does Erdogan have a plan? Has he thought his policies through? I doubt it.
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Shervan, the flaw in your analysis is that you assume no response by other nations.
Do you really think the other nations of the region will allow themselves to become vassals of China without resistance??? Do you really think that??
Already, Japan, India, US, and Australia are strengthening the Quad -- soon, I expect a NATO-like alliance to be created (Indo-Pacific Alliance?).
China will have to face and intimidate an alliance.
China's navy will NOT be as big as US/Japan/India/Australia/UK/Vietnam/Philippines/Singapore, and probably a few more.
China's attempt to dictate to others with no allies, and no one liking them is doomed to failure.
PLUS -- the demographic collapse, and the coming economic collapse of China will prevent China from achieving that goal.
In this case, Shervan, I think you fell into the "extrapolation trap". Many analysts who try to predict the future fall into it. Extrapolations of recent trends into the future using extrapolations have the inherent flaw of assuming the future won't change course.
It always does.
Already, the conditions that enabled China to build and expand its navy is coming to an end.
China just cancelled a large carrier, for instance.
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