Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "CaspianReport" channel.

  1. The HF-2e's range is 1200 km and could just reach the 3 Gorges Dam. Lucky coincidence?? Or, did Taiwan plan that from the beginning??
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  2. Excellent summary. I might have missed it -- but how does Ethiopia's Nile Dam affect the situation?
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  3. Your description of the reasons for the Japan/US alliance is good. However, you hinted at but did not elaborate on China's South China Sea occupation threat. You're right - Japan relies on maritime trade through the SCS. That is why China wants to control it -- it is NOT about resources. China wants to control trade to Japan and Taiwan. That way, China reduces both to dependent subordinate states. China conquers them without firing a shot. Question -- is US, EU, Australia, and India STUPID enough to allow this to happen??
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  4. @Niraj Lahori How and where do you see that most likely to happen?? Religious tensions do exist around the world -- always with Muslims, for some reason.
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  5. The QUAD is NOT a military alliance. It is not comparable to NATO. AUKUS is comparable to NATO. AUKUS is an open alliance, that will welcome countries to join it. IMO, India does not want a military alliance. India does feel comfortable with military commitments. The ASEAN nations also are reluctant to ally with US, Australia, and UK due to their colonial past.
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  6. Have to disagree, at least a bit. True, geography will impact mindset and world view. However, so does culture and history. The mindset and world view of Pakistan is far different than India, and that has nothing to do with geography. For me, the biggest influence on the Russian mindset are two things -- 1) the horror of the 150 years under the Tatar yoke. They were merciless, and they Russia to a bestial existence. 2) the heavy yoke of Tsarist rule, with imposed serfdom for 350 years. Russia has only begun to experience normality only in the last few decades. Russia has no experience or understanding of democracy. Do they even understand charity, or forgiveness? I wonder. The paranoia of Putin and Russia's acceptance of his paranoia is amazing. Europe and US were slowly demobilizing, until Putin resurrected Russian 18th Century foreign policy ideas. But, the key thing was that Russia accepted this paranoia because, to them, it seems reasonable. Therefore, they are as deluded, and ultimately as stupid as he is. Putin is destroying Russia, with the cooperation of the Russians. What idiots. Prisoners of their own misconception and misunderstanding of the world.
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  7.  @blackflagsofpakistantheeas9109  Sorry, but the overland route to China cannot sustain more than 1% or 2% of the sea route to India. So, China remains very vulnerable to naval blockade in case of war with India.
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  8. I don't think China's navy is tipping any balance. If anything, China's navy is losing relative. US, Japan, Australia, Philippines and India are growing closer together. When conflict comes, it seems highly unlikely that China will have only one opponent of its choosing. If China takes on Taiwan, thinking that Taiwan will fight alone, I think China will be surprised. Japan cannot afford to let Taiwan fall to China. So, Japan will definitely help. Japan has satellites that can help Taiwan target Chinese assets. The US and Japan will keep the East Coast of Taiwan open, so arms and other aid can be supplied. If Taiwan runs out of missiles, US will resupply her.
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  9. Why did BOTH Putin and Trump think it was a good idea to crap on their best customer?? I find that incredilbly stupid. Both did it, and Trump thinks Putin is a genius. Putin is already regretting his move, I am sure. Trump will regret his actions in the future as the US loses contract after contract. Canada is already likely cancelling its F-35 order. Spain already cancelled theirs. More are coming.
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  10. China and Iran snuggling to keep warm. Aren't they cute?? Two friendless countries, each find a friend. What a heart warming story.
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  11. China CANNOT create a blue water navy--- BECAUSE -- it does not have a global string of bases. It is getting a few in the Indian Ocean....but that is it. No bases in the Atlantic. No bases in the Central Pacific. The US can build a base whenever it needs one --- Palau just invited US to build a base there -- and the US said yes. WHO will invite China's Navy??
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  12. China is already hated and opposed by everyone. If China does this (which it might already be doing on the Mekong.) I think it will pay a big price. Seeing this, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia who rely on the Mekong will institute their won water management programs. They will build their own reservoirs, to hold water for use when China holds back water. Also, China cannot hold water forever. Its reservoirs fill up, and then they have to release it, whether they like it or not. Countries downstream can have water management facilities to ease either China holding water, or releasing it in flood quantities. And then, those countries will hate China forever. Not good, if China wants to have productive trade relationships.
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  13. Of course, several of those belligerents are nuclear powers. The threat of nuclear war increases as defeat becomes possible. Would China fire nukes rather than lose?? Would India fire nukes rather than lose??
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  14. You focus on geography & military is imbalanced, IMO. First, true power, today, is determined by economic power. China's power was growing well, and power was accruing to it, as it grew. However, Xi's policies have put a nice end to that. I agree with your analysis that China is heavily dependent on its exports to US & EU. It's exports to India were growing nicely, too. The idiot, Xi, is putting an end to that. The South China Sea grab is causing the US and others to rethink their policies, including trade polices, towards China. Trump's trade war would have happened anyway, no matter who is president. Notice how the Democrats don't criticize Trump on his China policy, even though they deeply disagree with everything else he does. (You won't find any Democrats wearing long red ties, that's for sure, LOL) If China had stayed with Deng's policies, and furthered their cooperation with and integration into the international trade system, their future growth and power would have been assured.
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  15. Kuomintang is done. Its policy of rapprochement with China, with the idea of joining China, is a non-starter now in Taiwan. I find it ironic that the Kuomintang is now an apologist for the CCP. Strange politics.
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  16. I am very surprised you set up the video saying the countries around the SCS have competing claims. THEY DON"T --- ALL the countries merely claim their EEZ rights. They DO NO CLAIM SOVEREIGNTY. ONLY China claims FULL SOVEREIGNTY over the SCS. Sorry to shout, but I know you know this -- so why the misinformation??? Are you taking the side of China??? SO IT SEEMS. If not, then correct the misinformation AT THE START of the video.
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  17. After 9/11, the US should have just done a punitive attack to tell the Taliban Afghani government not to do that again. Something serious, like carpet bomb their training facilities. I do mean "carpet bomb" with dumb bombs that are not very accurate. Many collateral deaths. Maybe, 100,000 or so. We lost about 3,000 in their attack. We should pay back in much higher numbers. It would be crude and cruel. But I don't see any other alternative. What we did made no sense. Committing our military to try to nation build, in a country that does not want to change. Japan and Germany were already modern countries after WW2. Changing them was rather simple, by comparison. We really had no long term interests in Afghanistan, so committing our military for a generation was idiotic. Not, just merely wrong --- IDIOTIC. Both D's and R's were responsible for the lunacy. Thank you Biden, for getting us out of there.
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  18. Yep. We are just forced to intervene. When we intervene in other countries, it is their fault for making it necessary. Remember, it hurts us more that it hurts you. I wish all the countries around the world would stop forcing us to intervene. Like when Chile's Salvador Allende forced us to assassinate him. It was his fault. Or when Al Qaida forced Obama to send a drone strike on an outdoor wedding, which killed many including kids. Not our fault. We were forced to do it. People should pity the poor United States, being forced to do all these horrendous acts. It just not our fault. BTW. It may be hard to tell, but my statement is loaded with sarcasm. Some of it bitter.
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  19. Let's get this straight -- China is NOT becoming a world naval power. It takes more than ships to do that. What made England a world naval power was it global base structure, not merely its ships. Same with America today. Sure we have a lot of great ships. But, without Subic Bay, Diego Garcia, Okinawa, Diego Garcia, Naples, ROK, and so many others scattered around the world, the US Navy would have a hard time projecting power. To have bases around the world requires one very essential asset, which China does not have ---- FRIENDS. We are welcome in places like UK, Italy, Japan, Philippines, Singapore, and so many others because we have friends. The US does its best to keep its friends. We treat them with respect. We help them after a hurricane or some other disaster. Xi, though, has been following a different path -- making as many enemies as he can. How many friends does China have?? I bet you won't need more than one hand to count them all. No friends -- no global naval power.
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  20. Alliances typically are between powers. I would not call Nepal, or the Solomon Islands as "powers". The ONLY thing China can get from them is bases. The US actually real support and assistance from its allies. Canada, UK, Germany, Japan, etc have real armies and navies. They have soldiers who can fight, and industry that can contribute. What can any of the countries mentioned as being "allies" of China contribute to China in the case of war?? Nothing. This idea is a joke, and beneath the standard of The Caspian Report.
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  21. Renewable energy and electric vehicles will continue to expand, AND that expansion will accelerate. Even without climate change as an impetus, the inherent financial advantages of the those technologies will propel their increased usage. However, as the understanding of the consequences of global warming and its speed become better understood, the world will determine that we must move to a 100% fossil fuel free energy infrastructure globally ASAP. I think the countries of the world will institute policies and penalties so strong that even India and China will be forced to shut down their newly built coal plants. They will do this or face world trade isolation. I don't know when this will happen --- I just know that it must happen.
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  22. On the other hand, the Chinese people will suffer deprivation, terror, and deaths without demanding political change. Look at how China endured the "Great Leap Forward", and the "Cultural Revolution" without complaint, rebellion, or even unrest. The CCP was never threatened during that time, as far as I know. So, maybe the CCP will survive the coming decline in wealth, and increase in misery.
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  23. You're wrong. Germany, UK, and Italy have large US bases. So, Poland having US bases has NO effect on its power position.
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  24. Taiwan is 120 miles from China. I doubt Taiwan has artillery that can hit cities in China. Rockets? Yep, Taiwan has plenty of them that can reach China. So does China. They could both rain down missiles on each other's cities. Meanwhile, China's export would end.
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  25. I hate it when people make assertions that are unsubstantiated and WRONG. The coast of China was NEVER the wealthy area, until recently. Why do you think all the capitals are inland?? Beijing, the latest, is the closest to the sea -- 90 miles away. Chang'an was deep inland. WHY?? Simple, trade until the Europeans, was over the Silk Road. Wealth came overland, from the west. When Europeans came, they reversed that. So, Hong Kong, Macao, Shanghai, and other coastal cities became the centers of wealth. That has only been in the last 200 years.
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  26.  @freemanol  That may be. BUT.... in all the histories I have read of China --- the action never takes part by the coast. I don't mean just the battles. The big cities, the capitols., etc. Can you name me ONE capitol of any Chinese Empire or smaller state whose capitol was on the ocean???
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  27.  @freemanol  Have you looked on a map and seen where Chang"an is?? It IS in the western part of China (Sinkiang is NOT traditional China) Do you know anything about China's geography or history?? C'mon man, you are supposed to be the smart one. Get your FACTS straight.
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  28. I don't think it will last decades --- for 2 reasons --- 1. The market will respond. The tar sands wells in Canada will be re-opened. Other wells will be brought online, and oil exploration will be expanded. 2. Solar energy, both residential and commercial, will become much more popular. In 10 years, the installed capacity will start having a strategic impact, IMO.
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  29. OK, lets forget the politics, and focus purely on the military. Can China even hope to prevail? Well, to do so, it must be able to function economically WHILE being at war. The first that will happen, IMO, is the cessation of maritime imports & exports to/from China. Shipping companies won't risk their ships, and ship insurance will probably be too expensive or non-existent. PLUS, US and other countries will implement a naval blockade. India will likely stop all China trade through the Malacca Strait. US will stop it across the Pacific. Question: How long will China's economy and people be able to withstand a blockade?? Germany lost WW1 because of its blockade. China, I think, is more dependent on overseas trade than WW1 Germany was. Will China last 6 months? 12 months? longer?
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  30. In 2021, this plan to absorb Belarus was very likely to succeed. However, now in 2023, after Russia's debacle in Ukraine, this plan has not a chance. Putin is going to lose this war. With that loss, Putin is going to lose a LOT of power, and will likely not survive in office, or survive in life. Wars have a tendency to fundamentally change the world. And Russia's world is changing.
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  31. LOL... I had to listen several times to your theory about "Theory & Practice". Succinct. Accurate. But, a bit convoluted. Hilarious. 👌👌👌👌😜😜
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  32.  @edenli9208  just noticed your reply. I am impressed. You countered me, point by point. I think you are very wrong in most of them, but you state your position clearly, without being insulting or abusive. I appreciate that. You are first pro-China person I have met on-line, where I feel, despite our very profound differences, would be able to have a long conversation into the night, drinking beer or wine -- and have a very good time. BTW - US won't fall apart. We almost did during our Civil War, but that ended that idea. The political differences in the US are not of a nature to coalesce around rebellion. The US is very complex, and different from all other countries. Americans have a hard time understanding it. To foreigners, it is a mystery. Personally, I think it is the most complex nation in the world. Full of contradictions. It was created on a contradiction -- "All Men Are Created Equal" & Slavery. Can't get more contradictory than that. In the name of "Peace", we start wars (see Vietnam). We can be very greedy, yet also very generous -- see Marshall Plan, and opening our markets to Japan, SK, and Germany - enabling them to become wealthy. If you try to find consistency in our behavior, you will fail. Scotland will likely leave the UK at some point. For some reason, any vote to stay in the union is open for another vote. A vote to leave is permanent. So, eventually a vote to leave will happen. I think that is sad, but inevitable.
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  33.  @edenli9208  In the American colonies at the time, "men" would have referred any homo sapiens. Europe had gone through the Enlightenment, and had moved away from classic monotheistic theology which put people into orthodox, heretic, and non-believer categories. But, in Christianity, even non-believers were considered human. So, "men" would have included the people we call "men" today". I don't know about Muslims, they don't seem to like anyone, even themselves. You are cynical. You interpret everything negatively, even the Marshall Plan. Did the Marshall Plan help the United States? Sure it did. But, it did so by helping others, who were in dire need. People were starving in Europe. Did it have the effect of freezing Russia out of Western Europe? Yes. It was a reason we did it. But, we DID do it. Russia could have done the same for Eastern Europe. But did not. In fact, no nation in history was as generous as the US at that time. The US did not act as a conquering nation, subjugating everyone. The US favored letting businesses in those countries start, and start building wealth. You see, what differentiates the US from Russia & China, is that we don't see the world as a zero-sum game. We believe that as other countries get rich, they will buy more from us, and we both get richer. We don't resent other countries getting rich. The US did not resent China getting rich --- until it started using its wealth to bully others, threaten war, and claim rights and privileges not allowed by the UN. When China started directly threatening the US and our friends, we knew we had to change policies. Now the US is ending its trade relationship with China. Imports from China will shrink until they are are a tiny fraction of what they were. Other countries are following our lead. China's power will fade as quickly as it rose.
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  34. "Agree to disagree"?? I think we have done that quiet admirably.
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  35. What do you mean "the downfall of the US military"??? Our military is a reflection of our country and society. It is created and sustained by our institutions, which includes the will of its citizens. For the military to collapse or have a downfall, that would mean a collapse of our government. Of all the countries in the world, the US is best situated geographically and politically. For instance, lets assume that the oceans rise 50 feet (much higher than predicted). Florida and other coastal areas would be submerged. The people of those areas will be welcome to relocate. Many coastal countries do not have that ability for their citizens. Bangladesh, for instance, is surrounded by India which would not welcome its refugees. China would be hard hit, as the Yellow and Pearl river deltas are low, and would cause the dislocation of about 200,000,000 people. China is not set up culturally or legally to allow for that much internal immigration. The US, on the other hand, allows and supports internal immigration. The US will need to abandon many bases, like Diego Garcia, which are barely above sea level. Our naval bases will likely have to be relocated. But, that is merely an inconvenience. There will be conflicts around the world. The US does not need to get involved in any of them. BTW -- by 2040 or 2050, our economy will have moved to renewable energy, and away from oil. We won't need to care what happens in the Middle East or other areas, to ensure our energy supply. Oil resources has been a main driver of wars for 100 years now. That is coming to an end.
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  36. If China decides on war with anyone else, there is a higher likelihood of it growing into a much larger war. A war with any of the ASEAN nations can very easily grow into a larger regional war. Japan, US, and India are very possible, if not likely, military supporters and allies of the ASEAN. So, they could easily join the conflict, since none could allow China to win, and thus become a local hegemon.
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  37. First, EU will be drawn into a conflict with China --- BECAUSE -- China threatens the EU even more than it threatens the US. Second, France has been reluctant to cooperate with US & UK since De Gaulle. Even during WW2, there was friction. From the American perspective, France has always been an unreliable ally. Even if their interests coincide, France still may not cooperate just to make the point that they are not under our influence. Yet, France likes to claim they are a great ally of the US. They get pissed when their foot dragging and arrogance caused them to lose the Australian submarine deal. They didn't even try to help Australia solve its military challenges. In the end, France's effort to lead Europe will fail. It's arrogance and self-serving policies will not be followed blindly by the others. The Russo-Ukraine War has shown everyone how needed America is, and how reliable we truly are. France? Not so much.
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  38.  @indeterminate4794  Only in last century has the coasts become the economic center. Before that, trade occurred over the Silk Road, and China faced west. China turned its back on the coast, and maritime trade. That is why China never cared or did anything about pirates.
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  39. There have several struggles between empires to control central Asia, and the trade that crosses it. Great Britain called it The Great Game, when Russia and UK met there. But, it goes way back Mongol Empire vs Persia vs Samarkand, etc. There will be a struggle between Russia and China for the dominance of central Asia. China is making its claim to Turkmenistan, and now to Afghanistan. I expect China will make moves on Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan by 2030. China has already published claims to parts of Siberia, and China claims to be an Arctic power, which means it expects to get Siberia. China and Russia are mortal enemies.
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  40. Interesting. But, why are Greece, Bosnia, and Serbia not included?? Why is Ukraine left out?? BeloRus seems to be a Russian puppet, so excluding them seems to make sense.
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  41. I think that the giant to the south, the US, is a big reason why Canada will not break up. It is hard enough for Canada to have its own foreign and domestic policies in the face of the powerful influences from America. If divided, the smaller entities would likely become rump dependencies of the US.
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  42. That North South corridor is a joke. It will have negligible effect. Too many trans-shipment points. Rail is much less efficient than water. Rail is the largest part of it, so that becomes its cost basis, not water transport.
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  43. Current CO2 levels have already exceeded the CO2 levels of the Pliocene, 2.5mya, when seas were 25 meters deeper. So, sea level rise will continue to at least that level. Moreover, according to CO2.earth, CO2 was at 415.72 ppm 4/6/20, an increase over 411.33 ppm on 4/6/19. An increase of 4.39 ppm in just one year!!! That's incredible. Can anyone really think we won't see 500 ppm by 2050, and 600 ppm by 2100??? Those levels of CO2 have not existed since the Cretaceous, when NO ICE existed on Earth. Can anyone doubt that oceans won't continue to rise over the next few centuries?? And, that the rise will keep accelerating?? These massive dams would be obsolete and overwhelmed by further sea rise within 50 years, 100 years viability is probably too optimistic, IMO. But, even then, is it practical for Europe to rebuild them? or, to eventually abandon coastal Europe in the long run anyway??
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  44. China's trade policies are predatory. China uses trade to try to intimidate and control. Look at how it has treated trade partners India, Australia, and Pakistan. With a "friend" like China, who needs enemies?
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  45. About Russia's military industrial complex ---- (you should an episode on it, IMO) Russia's poor economy is causing Russia great difficulty in keeping up with the US & Europe. Russia cannot design & build an effective stealth fighter or bomber. The SU-57 is a failure - not stealthy & too expensive to build. Same with the Armata - interesting design, but too expensive for Russia. Russia cuts corners in maintenance, which diminishes the availability of their weapon systems. As the world moves away from oil, Russia's economy will be even less able to support Putin's grand designs. The real question is "How will Putin deal with these challenges?" Syria is a drain. Not an asset. How long can Putin maintain its efforts there? Also, Russia is losing India as a military market. That's huge. No one will be buying their increasing obsolete and poorly built weapons. I think Russia's position in the world will look very different in the next 10 to 20 years.
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  46. The resistance of the entrenched interests prevents small evolutionary changes. When change comes it will be catastrophic - a sudden and profound shift in power, with old institutions swept away. If only they were not so stubborn.
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  47.  @goodwill4735  Not so. The Brits left in 1948. True, using an election to divide the land by religion was wrong, IMO. They did the same to Ireland, which also resulted in religious conflict. BUT, the conflict belongs to those who create the violence, and who refuse negotiations and compromise. The Catholics & Protestants finally came to terms. The Muslims of Pakistan must someday be willing to come to terms. Personally, I think the people of Pakistan are willing to live in peace. The government and military keep the tension, to justify their hold on power, I think.
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  48.  @goodwill4735  Ah, I didn't know that. I just presumed they did it by some kind of plebiscite. Wow, so they partitioned India with some data, and a few bottles of scotch, I am sure.
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  49.  @goodwill4735  I read how the Sikhs of Lahore really got f**ked.
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  50. About the IMF -- IMO it is very irresponsible and wrong headed. Supply Side Economics of Milton Friedman has been disastrous every where it has been used. It ignores the beneficial effect of public spending to ensure people's lives. I think the economics of Keynes and Galbraith are much better for developing fiscal policy. BUT, the IMF represents banks, not governments. The IMF has no interest in people's lives, health, or future. The IMF does not care if governments collapse, or if there is social revolution. The IMF only cares about getting its payments --- even though it often sets requirements that lead to social and economic collapse.
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