Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "CaspianReport" channel.

  1. Trump is scheming and conniving. But, for his own personal benefit, not America's benefit. I would not elevate what Trump does to the level of "Doctrine". His thinking is not that deep. His inconsistency is not the result of deep thinking. It is the result of actions taken for short term isolated goals. Unlike George Kennan's Russian Doctrine of the early 50's which resulted in a 40 year consistent foreign policy and alliances to ring and isolate the Soviet Union, the Trump "Doctrine" will end when our national spasm is over. Make no mistake, Trump will end up being merely a national spasm, which we will look back on in both shame and horror. When Trump is gone, you will see an immediate righting of the American ship of state. Moreover, I think that there will be a strong response to Putin's assault on the American electoral process. It will be defined as an "Act Of War".
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  2. China will not have it easy. 1. India's navy now has porting rights at Cam Rahn Bay. 2. India is selling Brahmos & Akash missiles to Vietnam. 3. India is training Vietnam's navy on using its Russian made subs. India is selling naval ships to V. 4. Vietnam, India, US, Japan, and Australia hold joint naval exercises regularly. 5. Xi's military bullying is causing regional countries to lower their trading relationship with China. China's export economy will be hurt by this, especially long term, IMO. China will find that bullying and threatening is not a way to establish healthy relationships in the region. Xi seems to be operating as if China is the Middle Kingdom, and all countries are supposed to allow hegemony and dominion to China. Well, all those countries are proud too, and there will be push back. Japan, India, and Vietnam are already increasing their military budgets. So, China's new military assets will bring the advantage it seeks. Remember, it takes a lot more money and assets to project power, especially over the sea.
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  3.  @k.umquat8604  What is your point?
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  4. Why do you ignore the military and foreign policy issues?? They are intimately entangled with both the Chinese and American initiatives. China's money may be attractive, but China's clumsy and threatening foreign policy behavior is killing the BRI. For instance, once Philippines was cozying up to China. Then China started bullying Philippines - killing some of its fishermen. China even called Philippines - Province of China, insulting an enraging the Filipino citizenry. BRI is going nowhere there. Sri Lanka is a warning to all who may consider working with China. Malaysia kicked China out. Your painting of China as the 20 foot giant boogeyman is wrong, ridiculous, and extremely misleading. Chervon, you are losing your grip. You once were insightful, and measured in your statements. Now, you seem to be going full YouTube -- overstatement, and appealing to emotions not rationality.
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  5. For those who think Biden will be soft on China, you haven't been watching, have you?
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  6. When you said, "America is bad at infrastructure." you really showed your ignorance. Just because the US is stingy at funding infrastructure maintenance, does not mean US is "bad" at it. Our dams aren't falling apart like China's are. Our skyscrapers will stand for centuries. The Empire State Building is almost 90 years old, and can last centuries more. When countries want something built right, they come to Halliburton or Bechtel -- American companies. Your statement was both ignorant and insulting. Before you go mouthing off, do a little research.
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  7. The idea that Putin will lead Russia to democracy is asinine. Democracy requires more than the elements and structure of democracy... Democracy requires a population that reveres and demands democracy. It requires and population that abhors and reviles politicians and leaders that try to be authortarian. Russia knows only authortarian rule. It only knows dictatorship. Russia cannot become democratic any time soon. It will take generations, maybe hundreds of years, for Russia to become a democracy.
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  8. Excellent analysis, as usual. However, it must be kept in mind the declining geoeconomic influence of oil Renewable energy and electric vehicles are just beginning to ramp up. Their increase will NOT be linear, but exponential or even logarithmic. The ONLY reason the world cares about the wars, rivalries and conflicts of the Middle East is oil. Notice - no one cares about conflicts in Africa. No troops went on the ground to rescue Sudan. No one cares about Yemen, since it has no oil. Same with South America. As oil declines in significance, at some point Saudi regime may not be rescued if it comes under threat. The US quickly came to Saudi's defense when Hussein threatened. In 5, 10, or 15 years, the Suadi regime may be overthrown because no one lands an army to prevent it. Also, Saudi Arabia's medieval government will become increasingly incapable of governing a nation of over 40 million. The strains of the modern world will be too much for the family monarchy. Plus, the average Arab will likely become resentful of the lazy Saudi family that suck up the money, while contributing little.
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  9. I never let total ignorance stop me from being an expert. 😜😜
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  10. Is it now time for US & others to recognize Taiwan?? What has to happen for the world to recognize Taiwan?
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  11. The bubonic plague profoundly changed Europe. By killing off so many people, it made people valuable. That killed serfdom and slavery. China's one child policy is having a similar effect, I think. With fewer people, and a declining population, the state will not be able to treat citizens as disposable, as Chinese emperors had done for centuries. This should mean that the relationship between the common citizen and the state will change to favor the citizen much more.
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  12. Excellent analysis. However, all the issues you mentioned will be affected by continuing trends. For instance.... 1) Russia's financial power is decreasing compared to Europe and US. Russia's economy is not innovative, nor supporting of trade. IMO, Russia will have less and less to offer Belarus in loans, and other supports. 2) The reverberation of the Soviet bell will diminish over time, both in Belarus and in Russia itself. As both nations become more open and aware of the outside world through trade and travel, their cultures will change. This process has been happening around the world, and it will happen there as well. 3) As the world shifts to renewable energy, the geostrategic power of oil will shrink, and eventually disappear. Russia's reliance on the power of oil will cause Russia to lose almost all power. The only power Russia will have is military, and even that will decline as Russia's economy declines and cannot support a robust military industrial complex.
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  13.  @sopi2066  Really? So, you say UK, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, and many others are puppets of US? China doesn't even have puppets, then. Unless you count North Korea.
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  14. When it comes to ASEAN, a map immediately creates two questions -- 1. Why isn't Australia part of ASEAN? And, will it ever be? 2. Why isn't India part of ASEAN? And, will it ever be part of it?
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  15. Disease & Politics?? I thought you were going to explain why Republicans are so sick. My mistake.
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  16. You throw around numbers as if they mean the same thing. Chinese numbers, IMO, are not the same as US numbers. For instance, you mentioned a factory being built by China as "infrastructure". Huh?? A factory is NOT infrastructure. From US, such a thing would be built by a company for itself or a partner, and would NOT be deemed infrastructure. You also mention China is better at building than US. WTF?? Yes, our infrastructure needs help -- but that is by OUR standards, which are very high. In China, bridges and dams fail all the time. It is SOP for them. Considering that Bechtel & Halliburton are two of the biggest and most respected building firms in the world, and based in the US, what you said is both insulting and extremely incorrect.
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  17. Taiwan could counter the "hybrid" warfare of China by shooting down one of their planes. Taiwan could respond slowly. Encouraging the Chinese trespassing fighter to enter farther into Taiwanese airspace. When sufficiently far close enough to Taiwan -- shoot it down. China will go ape shit crazy. But, what could they do?? Taiwan would merely say, "the incursion x miles into our airspace. We had no choice." Then China would either escalate or de-escalate. Either way, Taiwan wins, IMO.
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  18. Saudi monarchy wants to remain a strategic relationship with US. HOWEVER, as US becomes an oil exporter, and electricity is increasingly made from renewable energy, the United States is going to care less and less about what happens there. Arabia's role as the world's gas station will come to an end in thirty years, I think. This is inevitable and unavoidable. I doubt the Saudi monarchy will be able to cope. It will end, as other monarchies ended when faced with the modern world.
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  19. Again, the elephant is the room is ignored. --- Siberia. China has been challenging the borders of its neighbors - India, Japan, Vietnam. But, not Russia --- yet. In fact, China has more real claim to Siberia than its spurious claims to the SCS, Japan's islands, Kashmir, etc. Also, Siberia is empty. More people could be used to exploit its resources, which are great. Moreover, Siberia borders the Arctic and could be a way for China to become an Arctic country. Will China begin pressuring Russia to return Siberia to it?? I wonder.....
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  20. BTW...a renewable energy global infrastructure will profoundly change world geopolitics. Oil exporters will find their main resource of no value. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, and others will have to find other means of creating valuable export products and services. Russia will have a huge problem, since they make nothing anyone wants except Vodka. Saudi Arabia will no longer have their monarchy protected by world powers. No one will care. The pipeline of Wahhabi money financing world terrorism will dry up. Al Shabbab, Boko Haram, Al Qaeda, and other Wahhabi financed organizations will shrink and finally fail.
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  21. I am always impressed by your analyses. I don't always agree, but you give me much to think about. I like how you go behind the obvious, such as how Iran is merely a bargaining chip to China, and that this may all be for show. However, you didn't mention how all this Iran may be using to change its relations with the US. The new Democratic administration (probable) will likely want to change Trump's confrontational style with Iran, especially if Biden will continue our opposition to China in the SCS, and in supporting Taiwan.
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  22. Seems to me that Russia should offer peace to Ukraine for 1. Russian troops leaving Ukraine, and ending all claims to Ukraine. 2. Supply water to Crimea at an agreed price. 3. Russia recognize Ukraine EEZ in the Black Sea. 4. Russia guarantee freedom of navigation for Ukraine maritime trade. 5. Russia gets Crimea, with Ukraine ceding all rights to Russia.
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  23.  @alexbullet9165  Really? Wouldn't giving up Crimea be good trade for peace? If it came with guarantees, would that help?
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  24.  @alexbullet9165  That is a problem, isn't it? Russia could give guarantees. But, who would believe them? The guarantees would have to be backed up by countries with integrity. One that might work, could be Ukraine is accepted into NATO. Russia gets recognition of Crimea, and fully normalized relations with all countries. Membership in NATO might work. What do you think?
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  25.  @alexbullet9165  True. But, the current situation is untenable. At some point, Putin will have to make up his mind -- either invade Ukraine and try to dictate terms, OR come to some accommodation - a treaty.
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  26. Don't forget we are just ending the oil age. As renewable energy becomes the world's source of energy in the next 20 to 40 years, oil will diminish as a strategic resouce -- eventually becoming almost worthless. The oil nations of the ME will have to re-structure themselves. Conquering or controlling a nation for energy will become pointless. The cause, or at least prime factor, in geopolitical confrontation for the past 120 years will go away. How will countries compete?? How will they define their "enemies"? How will they get their wealth?? How will they define progress??
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  27. One more thing in favor of Russia becoming a democracy is the example of Ukraine. Ukraine was inching towards democracy. The war has hastened that process. And consider that Ukraine's history with autocracy is the same as Russia's. So, if Ukraine can become a democracy, so can Russia. Having said that, I wouldn't place bets on it. That's for sure.
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  28. Recent developments show that Trump is on the way down. His influence is declining in the US. His hold over Republican legislators is decreasing. The Russian tinkering in American elections is becoming a hotter issue. Putin's view of military power as the prime determinant of national power has blinded him. His policies are isolating Russia economically as well as politically. Their economic isolation will prevent Putin from reaching his goal of the rebirth of the Russian Empire. It is as if Putin sees the world through the lens of Tsarist Russia before WW1. He has elevated the Russian Orthodox Church to again being a partner in controlling the Russian people. His ignorance and misunderstanding of the true sources of power in the modern world will ensure that things end badly for Russia.
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  29.  @nknkannadiga9742  Uh, "did support',. Please use past tense.
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  30. I am sick and tired of supposed super powers, Russia & China, saying they have to threaten military action because we are insecure. We might be attacked, and then, oh what should we do?? YET - both Russia and China create the problem they say they don't want. China has created enemies. 10 years ago, no one was thinking of interfering with China's maritime trade through the Mallaccas. Now, however, India, Vietnam, and others are making sure they can, just in case China attacks them. The EU thought it had a deal with Russia, to keep Ukraine as a neutral buffer. No one was thinking of attacking Russia. But, now, Russia is threatening Europe and the Middle East, so everyone has to prepare for ways to attack Russia, if they end up having to do that., Russia & China create the problem they say they don't want. If they don't want to be attacked, why don't they just STOP threatening others?? Why don't they stop making everyone nervous??
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  31. Whoa, wait a minute. You have Portugal claiming the depths of the Atlantic Ocean --- beyond the extent of the Eurasian continent. For instance, look at the North Sea -- it is all continental shelf. Britain, Norway, and the Netherlands would have claims to all of it. Or look at Iceland. It gets the 200 mi EEZ, but nothing beyond that because there is little continental shelf for it, as I see it. So, I doubt very much that Portugal will get the "abyssal plains" of the Atlantic Ocean. It that happens, then the US will also greatly increase in size as we would do the same thing to Hawaiian Islannds, Wake, Guam, Aleutians, and Marshall Islands. Imagine how much ocean territory we would get.
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  32. I asserted that the downstream countries have the ability to make or break China, too. What I mean is that those countries, if acting collectively, can profoundly hurt China, by shutting their markets to China's goods.
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  33.  @sweetdreamer3352  Not realistic. China needs its agricultural imports. Look at how China hurt itself by not buying Australian coal. Australia found other buyers, and China has blackouts. China is not run by the brightest bulbs.
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  34.  @sweetdreamer3352  China is still building coal fired power plants. China had blackouts all across China due to lack of coal.
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  35.  @sweetdreamer3352  Here are two reports of impact of coal shortage in China. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1GHK9Ei3qA&ab_channel=SwarajyaSwarajya https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fStoo7Qv8HI&ab_channel=InsideNewsInsideNews Of course, since you are China bot, you deny them.
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  36.  @sweetdreamer3352  BTW..do you want a serious discussion?? Or, do you prefer just hurling insults?? Let me know.
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  37. Russia will have a worse defeat than merely strategic. Russia's military is being exposed as incompetent, and unmotivated. Its equipment is not maintained, and their officers don't know how to lead or command. Russia will no longer be a world power.
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  38. Putin is a real piece of work. He masses troops, and threatens Ukraine. They he demands NATO to do what he wants, so that tensions can be eased. This extortion will not work. It MUST not work,.
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  39. In the early part of WW2, when US supplied UK, but was not a participant, Germany sank a destroyer or two. We almost got into that war early than the bombing of Pearl It is almost a certainty, that China will attack and sink a US warship, and the US may be forced into the conflict, whether we like it or not.
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  40.  @fasoooli2751  IMO, all books of religion are frauds. They each claim to have the only truth. They each condemn those who don't accept. Religions, at their core, are about hate and rejection. Christians killed "heretics". Muslims still kill "apostates". Religion has been the basis for more killing throughout history than anything. Whole populations were killed for religion. So, yeah, Muslims should stop being Muslims, and become more human. Leave the hate.
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  41.  @fasoooli2751  Correct. Democracy is merely a process of counting votes. The majority can often be wrong. Very wrong. BUT -- the other option is to have a person who decides what is right and wrong for everyone. That is ALWAYS subject to abuse. If you don't have democracy, then you will have some kind of autocracy. Sure, you can have wise kings. But, you can also have crazy cruel ones -- see Caligula, Hitler, Ottoman Sultans, Stalin, etc. A democracy will reflect the people that have it. That i why Vermont is a very different place from Mississippi. The people are different, so the democratic results are different. A democracy in a Muslim country will be different from US or Denmark. HOWEVER, if a democracy oppresses selected people within the society, then injustice is created. See American slavery, or South African Apartheid. Such a democracy will eventually have a crisis. A democracy that is not fair and just to all its people violates the basic principles of democracy. Unlike a monarchy, which assumes an aristocracy, that are privileged and special under the law. See Saudi Arabia. Or a Theocracy, where clerics are privileged and special under the law. See Iran. Anytime some people are privileged, you will have abuse and injustice. Such a system is doomed to unrest and collapse, though it could exist for many years or decades.
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  42. BTW - industrial capacity is NOT the source of wealth of nations. Where did you get that?? From some 19th century economist. Think about it --- if that were true, then Ireland, Netherlands, and Switzerland would NOT be rich countries. IF that were the case, then industrial companies would be the largest most influential. That WAS the case before 1960. But, not anymore. ALL the tall skyscrapers in the US are now owned by insurance companies -- not industrial companies. Shervan, the world has gone through several economic revolutions since the industrial revolution. You need to learn them and understand them.
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  43. The problem with power is that it is complicated. Many things contribute to power, and take it away. Money, institutions, reputation, alliances, geography, culture, admiration, etc contribute to power. The rivers is only one aspect of geography that is in China's favor. Other aspects are not.
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  44. BTW, I do not accept the common assertion that China's South China Sea grab is to ensure its trade routes. No one threatens its trade routes. IMO, the grab of the South China Sea is an attempt to control trade in the region and to intimidate everyone who uses it. China wants to use South China Sea trade access as a means of leverage and control over Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Philippines, and Vietnam. I think Xi and his backers dream of re-establishing China's middle kingdom relationships with its neighbors, and even the world. This will fail of course. The world has moved on from the days when Empires dominated the world. All power comes from economic power ultimately - after all, it takes a lot of money to sustain a military. Note how economic power also creates social power. Look at how American rap has gone global. As India develops, Bollywood is a growing cultural influence. The world knows Korean K-Pop. So, power has many facets. Xi's focus on confrontation and bullying will have severe blowback, I expect. Also, China's debt colonization of countries will also fail miserably. England took over Egypt that way. It didn't last. The world community will not allow China to put colonizing troops into Africa or India Ocean countries. Without occupying troops, nothing prevents those countries from merely defaulting on their debts to China. Remember how the US ended Britain's influence in Egypt in the 1950's by stopping its military??? What do you think will happen when China tries to enforce its domination with military force??? It will be stopped, I believe. China is at the apex of its power, IMO. Xi's policies have started a process that will degrade China's economy and power. Once its veneer of power is stripped away, its decline will be swift.
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  45. Egypt will have one, much bigger, problem -- sea level rise. Already, the current sea level rise is forcing salt water into the ground water. As the sea level rises, it will begin to rise faster. A sea level rise of 3 feet will destroy much of the arable land of the Nile Delta. As that continues, how will Egypt feed its population?? I predict permanent famine in Egypt by 2100, with a severe contraction of population.
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  46. There is no Russian perspective. There is only Putin's perspective. It is Putin's world view that pushes him. His view is both wrong and stupid. Putin is weakening Russia. His enemies increase in resolve and power. Russia will never recover from this. Putin will be known to history as Putin The Idiot, or Puddinhead Putin, Pudin The Pathetic. If it weren't so tragic, I would feel better making jokes.
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  47. Shervan, may I suggest that you select some important videos to do regular periodic updates. I think annual reviews of China's economy, China's military issues, Middle East, UK, EU, Russia, Ukraine, and India should all be considered. Maybe Ethiopia and Nigeria should be looked at regularly. Issues might need periodic updating -- global warming, world economy, world trade + tariffs, world military spending. I find that you will have done a great analysis, but its several years old, and I want to know your take on developments since your analysis was done. Thanks.
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  48. I see this was made over a year ago. Before the pandemic. Before hostage diplomacy. Before assault on fishing zones of countries around the world. Before the attack on the Goklam plateau. Before the decoupling of economies started by India and Japan. Before threatened decoupling from the US. The Chinese economy is going to suffer severely in the next few years. I wonder if the lack of popular support will cause the CCP to lose its ability to stay in power.
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  49. The people of Afghanistan MIGHT benefit if their leaders and rulers don't steal the wealth for themselves. Like the countries cursed with oil, a few at the top take the money, and leave the rest to starve. I doubt the people of Afghanistan will get much, except the pollution, from rare earth minerals.
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  50. About China & Russia -- since WW2, the Soviet Union ( now Russia) and China have been allies (sort of). However, they have not been traditional allies. In fact, they have been natural enemies contesting the primacy over Asia for centuries. It seems to me, that the era of their alliance as "communist" states will end soon. They will become rivals, suspicious of each other, and China will someday openly hunger for Siberia, they way it now openly hungers for the SCS.
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