Comments by "" (@craigkdillon) on "CaspianReport" channel.

Right now, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, and Australia are standing up to China. IMO, it is the US commitment, and backing that is making those countries confident in their ability to defy China. Without the US, would those countries have become allies to defy China? I doubt it. The violent history of Japan in the region would make it difficult for Japan to lead a regional coalition.
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Wasn't an India/Iran relationship developing?? Since Iran appears to be committing itself fully to a partnership or alliance with China, how will India react? Will India diminish its trade and investment in Iran? Will India grow closer to Iran's enemies/rivals, Saudi Arabia. India is already buying military equipment from Israel -- I am sure Iran hates that.
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The QUAD is a nice start. BUT, the QUAD is NOT a military alliance. A NATO-like military alliance is needed -- an Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization, modeled on NATO. Moreover, members should include Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and other ASEAN countries. The broader the membership, the stronger will be the alliance. NATO is strong, not merely because it has the US, UK, France and Germany, but also because it has Canada, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Greece, etc. The breadth of the alliance is what truly makes NATO strong. A new IPTO should also be as broad as possible.
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Again, the South China Sea dispute is wrongly described. 1. China claims SOVEREIGNTY over the SCS. That means it wants to treat the SCS just like an internal waterway. It wants to treat the SCS just like other countries treat their territorial waters out to 25 miles. 2. All the other countries claims are ONLY for their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) usage. EEZ rights are defined by the UN. EEZ rights go out to 200 miles. EEZ areas are still the high seas. Ships can traverse them at will. Cargo ships, private boats, and naval warships can traverse them at will. International laws apply, not the laws of the EEZ owning country. EEZ only refers to a country's ability to profit from that ocean area. That is why Russia can put its ships 26 miles off the coast of the US, and we cannot do a thing about it. 3. IF China gets Sovereignty over the SCS it can control, regulate, or even stop other nations using it for maritime trade. That would give China control over the maritime trade of Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Philippines, and Taiwan. Even Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, India, Japan and other nations would be affected.
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Great video. However, I think China will fail. There governmental structure will prevent this. The nations China is trying to catch do not threaten their neighbors militarily. Also, China's effort is too centrally driven and controlled. The biggest problem is their government. Being run by the Chinese Communist Party, their is no organized trustworthy succession of power. As inefficient as democracies can be, they have a peaceful transfer of leadership. Not having this, China will likely undergo periods of profound internal turmoil from time to time. Xi's military ambitions will likely become permanent, just as Putin has resurrected Russia's military ambitions. This attitude creates their border tension policies, with crises in SCS, Japan's islands, Indian border, Taiwan, Vietnam, etc. The continuing SCS incidents with Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, and others will poison China's trade in the region. If you notice, UK, US, Germany, and other western nations take great pains now to have peace locally. Only the Middle East absorbs their military attention, and that is because of the strategic value of oil. {This value is decreasing. As the world moves to renewable energy, the Middle East will lose its importance.} SO, I think it will fail.
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It is now 2020, COVID-19 and the collapse of oil prices dominate the news. Moreover, there is an accelerating trend of renewable energy replacing fossil fuels. As Nigerian oil revenue decreases, won't this exacerbate the divisions within Nigeria?? If the oil collapse permanently depresses oil prices, how will Nigeria cope with the loss of income?? Will Boko Haram increase activity?? Will Ibo or Yoruba factions become violent?? It seems to me that the prime unifying factor in Nigeria has been oil revenue. If that ceases, what will keep the country together??
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@J_X999 Disagree. The pro-China views lack perspective, and an understanding of history. The US has some major advantages that few recognize. Meanwhile, China has same major disadvantages that are ignored. Regarding a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, I specified the problems China will have. Basically, I don't see how China will be able to stop Taiwan from making the Taiwan strait into a killing field. IF you can do that, then I will become pessimistic, too. Can you do that?
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US and NATO are needed as a counterweight to Russia. However, what is really needed are the states of the Intermarium to do it. Forget Belarus -- it is a dictatorship in the Soviet model, and would not fit will in the other democracies. Mainly, if Poland and Ukraine could cooperate in both trade & military security, then it might happen. The Russian war in Eastern Ukraine could be the motivator to bring those states together. But, Belarus does not look eager to leave the Russian orbit. Is it necessary?? I don't know.
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@Daniel-ui3zy US and other countries sail through the SCS all the time. It is open ocean according to UNCLOS. ANY attack on the warships of any country would be an act of war, requiring military response. ANY attack on maritime ships would be an act of piracy, and also an act of war on the flagged nation of the ship attacked. That could require a military response. China is playing with fire. Just one of its captains, believing the CCP propaganda, could start a shooting war.
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@realpolitics527 Really?? And what is your source on that??? BTW -- the US has assassinated people, such as Allende in Chile. So, it is possible. I would like to know your source, though. Because, Zia does not fit the profile, IMO, of leaders that the US would likely kill.
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@realpolitics527 Also, my impression was that Zia had enemies within Pakistan. Seems to me that they were more likely the guilty ones.
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The headwaters of those rivers are in the Himalayas, BUT doesn't most of the water come from Monsoons and rains that drop their water on lower side of the mountains and on the land south of the mountains? The Ganges, Mekong, etc are small in China, I think. They get bigger when they enter India, Burma, and Indochina from the rains. So, is this problem overstated?
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This new effort can be easily interpreted as an effort to create self-sufficiency. Communism started with that idea. The USSR tried it. Cuba tried it. It does not work. Modern economies require peace. Look at how oil prices and stock markets react to even the threat of conflict. Yet, Xi keeps kicking the apple cart, even overtly threatening war against India, Japan, and Vietnam. The economies of SE Asia are developing during an era of Chinese threats and intimidation. This will prevent those nations from linking their economies too closely with China. As such, China will lack the foundation of being locally dominant in trade. I think you will see India grow to be in that position. India does not throw its weight around. It does no bully. The de facto military alliance between India, Japan, Taiwan, SK, Indonesia, and (eventually) the Philippines will create an economic bloc as well. These nations will improve their trade relations to mirror their military relations. The US, UK, and EU will support and participate with this bloc economically and militarily, too. The joint naval exercises of the recent years between these nations point to this development. Bottom line -- China is in deep trouble if it continues with its present policies and attitudes. I do not expect them to change. And, Xi is an idiot.
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Putin is a real idiot. After the fall of the Soviet Union, it looked like Russia was going to become a normal state, focused on trade and economic development. The NATO countries relaxed, and reduced military spending. NATO was on the path towards irrelevance. If Putin had just relaxed, and waited patiently, NATO might have fallen apart. The US was getting tired of lifting the military burden alone. In time, NATO would have wasted away. BUT -- for that to happen, the NATO countries had to feel safe and unthreatened Well, Putin changed all that. He threatens everyone. SO, now the NATO countries are increasing spending, and reviewing their energy deals with Russia. The trends now are not in Russia's favor. NATO has more money.
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sea level rise results in submerging coastal land --- not "flooding", which is temporary. Submerging of land is permanent.
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BTW...Do you know how A&N islands became part of India?? They are close to Burma, so why don't they belong to Burma???
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@João Ribeiro Where are you from? What do you know about it?
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Oh, one more thing --- China's navy is EASILY countered in the first island chain by land based missiles. Taiwan, for instance, can sink every Chinese naval ship with their THOUSANDS of HF-2, HF-2E, and HF-3 missiles. Ships in the littoral are VERY vulnerable.
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Considering this, I do not see how bullying neighbors, and threatening war will help China. If China decides on war, won't that hurt China much more??
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Pakistan has not helped itself over the years by supporting terrorism, and conflict with India. If only Pakistan had focused on internal development. But, Muslim nations have difficulty with that.
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Shervan, I am disappointed in you. It can never happen. It is impossible. China's GDP is a fraction of what China claims. China has sever problems with all its neighbors, ] threatening war with almost all --- including Russia. (Global Times says Vladivostok and parts of Siberia are Chinese. That is an implicit threat. Isn't it?).
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Also, will China be able to expand its navy as its population ages.
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A war of attrition would doom Russia. Wars are easy to start -- Hard to end. The initial phase of the war would favor Russia. Japan and Germany in WW2 found out that starting a war with an enemy that can outproduce you and outlast you, is a ticket failure and defeat. Russia's GDP is smaller than Germany's, or UK's, or Italy's alone. The US GDP dwarfs Russia's. Russia would be doomed to defeat. AND this time, Russia would be cut up, the way Germany was, and Russia would not be allowed to threaten other countries again.
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Don't be silly. They can't do that. They will simply create new calendars that show people getting younger every year. Calendars, after all, are tools of the imperialist west to subjugate and humiliate China.
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@arthas640 Ooh, that's nasty. China will steal another western concept, and call it Soylent Green. (See the movie)
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China's economic strength was a problem, but now, not so much. Since China has decided to use its economic strength for economic warfare and bullying, countries of the region are looking for ways to decrease maritime trade with China. The need for an Indo-Pacific Treaty Organization is now obvious to all.
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Camelpiss drinker Nabi Muhammad I understand. However, Pakistan's actions in creating the Taliban and destabilizing Afghanistan just made things a lot worse. If Pakistan really wanted a corridor to Central Asia, an unstable Afghanistan would make that impossible. My point was that Pakistan's actions did not help it.
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Allies devastated Germany in WW2, yet Germany did not capitulate. Germany devastated London, yet Britain did not surrender. A recurring military myth is that bombing and destruction will force surrender. That does not happen. The population becomes more resistant, and more determined not to surrender. Look at the siege of Leningrad in WW2. Hundreds of thousands died. It did not surrender. Russia will lose this war, for to win, Ukraine merely needs to survive each day.
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By 'veneer of power" in describing China, I mean that much of China's current power and influence is based very much on appearance and not reality. It's known that China's economic numbers are inflated. The debt problem is growing and will eventually crash, causing a decades long recovery, which few will want to help. China's ending of its friendly policies is isolating it. China's increasing isolation means fewer countries willing to help China, or even to cut it some slack. I think that in the next 5 - 15 years, this veneer of power will fall away, and China's weaknesses will be exposed.
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@user-up1ny If India is not a country because it is a "British Colonial Invention", then by similar argument, USA, Nigeria, Australia, Canada, Malta, also are not countries. Nations that were also "Colonial Inventions" that must NOT be countries by your argument include - Mexico, All countries in Latin & South America, All countries in Africa, except Ethiopia, There are other countries, but I hope you get my drift --- Your argument of why India is not a country is totally asinine, and wrong.
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Aren't they making any plans for solar energy? If not, I am very surprised.
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The continental bases will be moved. More serious, are the island bases. Diego Garcia, Guam, and Wake Island may not survive the rise.
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Besides money, rebuilding its military will take time.
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Interesting. Do NATO actions override the Montreaux (?) Convention about the passage of warships into the Black Sea?? As part of NATO, wouldn't Turkey be obliged to allow NATO ships into the Black Sea to support a NATO operation?? Do Turkey's NATO obligations take precedence? I would think they would, but I don't know the law on that. Does Turkey even have the power to alter or modify that convention? Or, decide when it can be suspended?? BTW -- is there an international body that has authority over that convention? UN? NATO? Some group of "Great" powers?? If so, which ones??
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One more point, the military threats the US will face will be from countries that will likely be facing even worse impacts from global warming. The biggest threat for humanity, IMO, will come from nuclear power plants being inundated by the rising oceans.
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