Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "What's Going on With Shipping?" channel.

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  5. Australian engineer here: I'm formally trained and certified in both functional safety (TUV) and EEHA. Rupturing an LNG tank does NOT create a BLEVE, but it certainly makes one possible and that's because the LNG will quickly boil without any fire, ignition or explosion. I got into some ugly discussions over the BLEVE in Beiruit a couple of years ago and it certainly was a BLEVE. If you get into the details BLEVE is not that well defined but basically its when you have an initial fire or explosion that creates the boiling liquid and vapor cloud which then mixes with the surrounding air. That's the boiling liquid and expanding vapor cloud part of BLEVE. If you think about what a thermobaric bomb does which is to disperse the fuel, let it mix with the air and then detonate it that basically a BLEVE. There's was at one point a few really good examples on YouTube but they have been drowned out but the scumbags wanting attention and clicks. Of the few decent vids on thermobaric devices Ryan McBeth who's ex-US Military and is actually informative does a good one. If you search BLEVE on YouTube you get a bunch of older vids, but some are very good but also kind of scary. The best I know of is the BLEVE training video that's on the channel VideoSpikes as it explains what is going on. There's one from Mexico City and its a good example of the 2 stage nature of a BLEVE. At 0:58 there's the initial explosion and creation of the vapor cloud and then about 2 seconds later there's the fireball. Maybe the most frightening one is the "Atmospheric Storage Tank Explosion" posted by Mohamad Mahdi Amiri of what happened in Tehran in 2021.
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  10. ENGINEER HERE and I TOTALLY AGREE with your assessment of Peter as I have the same issue when he talks about engineering topics. He's great on geopolitics but lousy on engineering. Here's 2 examples. 1/2 to most of the time he talks about things like the Russian Oil wells freezing and being out of action for decades because the American experts have left Russia IS SIMPLY WRONG because he assumes that over the last 20-30 years NONE of the Russian engineers or maintenance people learned anything from operating those wells. Sorry but its an absurd idea that the American experts never trained the local Russians on how to look after their own oil wells and/or that the Russians never learned anything off the Americans. Second, Peter often mentions that Wind and Solar need 100% (or close to) of their lifetime costs up front compared to things like a nuclear power station or coal fired power station because those stations have fuel costs for the lifetime of their operation. Its actually true that when you look at LIFETIME costs Wind and Solar have most of those costs upfront because they have few costs after construction. BUT engineers and investors don't consider lifetime costs as much as they do CAPITAL COSTS which is the money you have to spend getting approvals, getting things designed, getting things constructed and then commissioned so that whatever it is your building can start earning money. In terms of CAPITAL COSTS wind & solar now annihilate nuclear and handily beat coal and other fossil fuels. Just go and look at the costs per Megawatt installed (and that word "installed" is really important). Where there is a leveling of that space are in the grid modifications to link the Wind & Solar to the power grid. I think Peter's problem in these areas is that he does NOT consult with good subject matter experts (SMEs) like the does in other areas. This is why he has certain figures that are way off. Its also likely his economics is skewed by the incredibly poor way economic is taught and that's a subject I have been researching for sometime because it has had huge effects on engineering but that's a much longer discussion. By the way - I'm Australian and love the channel. I was like many introduced to you by Ward Carroll another of the rare breed of YouTubers who endeavor to educate people.
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  16. ENGINEER HERE: And I would love to come on your channel and discuss the issue of LESSONS LEARNED because across the entire world of engineering that is a monster issue that is NOT BEING ADDRESSED. FYI - I started with a degree in aerospace engineering but landed in industrial control systems and automation. That's a highly transportable skill set as almost every industry has computers with sensor connected to them and they run software to read those sensors and control things - power stations, manufacturing plants, mine sites, water treatment plants, traffic lights,...... and many other things. I have mostly worked in manufacturing and mining, but also have experience in water treatment, waste processing, oil & gas and power stations. Time and time again I have watched people make the same mistakes on projects after projects. Lessons are NOT being learned anywhere. Maybe on of the few times I saw it done well was when Colin Powell and others decided NOT to repeat Vietnam. Out of that came the Powell Doctrine, which I first heard about on a PBS Frontline documentary called "Rumsfeld's War." In it a General summarised it as having 4 key questions. What is the task? What are the required in manpower and machinery? Do we have the absolute support of the American people? When the job has to be done by? When that was used there was Gulf War 1 it was over in a month with its main objectives achieved - get the Iraqis out of Kuwait and make sure they can't come back. They pushed the Iraqis out of Kuwait and they had that famous battle where the Americans shot up all their trucks as they fled. By destroying all the trucks they removed the Iraqi capability to move anything around and armies have to move. When I first heard the Powell Doctrine explained it struck because it applies to ALL ENGINEERING PROJECTS. You have to start with a clear specification. You have to resource the project properly with money, men and machinery. You have to be in agreement that the solution is going to work. You have to have a firm date on when it has to be done and what it means to be done. If you look at the Apollo Program easily the most successful engineering project in history it had all those 4 things in place from the start. Land a Man on the moon and safety return him to the Earth. You have all the money, men and machinery needed. The American people said they agreed. The date was set -> end of the decade. Note that by the end of the 1960s Americans had been to the Moon 4 times (Apollo 8, 10, 11 & 12) and landed twice (Apollo 11 & 12). Further the technologies developed and then made available to American industry had paid via taxes back to the American people around $9.50 for every dollar spent on Apollo by the late 80s. That was the conclusion of an independent report commissioned by the AIAA during the aftermath of the Challenger disaster as people tried to get NASA abolished. This is NOT taught to engineers at all and EVERY project I have ever been on has missed at least 1 of those things. You'd all be amazed that engineers are NOT taught anything about project management in college. Yet this concept that Colin Powell came up with is so simple and it was based on LESSONS LEARNED from Powell's experience in Vietnam. AND YES when they threw it away as Rumsfeld and others did for the Invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan they both went tragically wrong and the effects of which we'll have to deal with for decades to come. AND YES when NASA has had projects with a lack of specific goals they have had issues like the Space Shuttle, like the Space Station and like the Launch systems meant to replace the Space Shuttle. So when you talk about LESSONS LEARNED its a much bigger issue than a broken wharf in Gaza.
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  22.  @cragnamorra  YES I noticed that one too. I think it was a typo because its simply idiotic to think a carrier can go that fast. A quick check says that 90knots is 166.68kmh or 103.6mph. Its so ridiculous that it has to be a brain fart or typo. FYI - I'm Australian but did my degree in Aerospace Engineering in America. In my last semester I did a class in nautical navigation (I liked sailing). It was a class hosted by the US Navy for their ROTC students. So it was a military class with USN officers for instructors. They were awesome too and treated me very well. It was a class that had the occasional civilian (like me). Its was in 1987 and at that time there were some very serious political differences between Australia and Indonesia. So I asked one of my USN instructors a few things. In that conversation I remember 2 things. 1) He assured me that America would not allow Australia to be touched because there's a couple of incredibly important US bases here. 2) Officially America could have aircraft carriers in Australian waters in 30 days. He told me quite seriously it would be less than 8. As an engineer I can do the calculation. In 8 days (192 hours) from San Diego to Brisbane which is 6260 nautical miles you only need to do 32.6 knots. In most cases San Diego would be the LONGEST distance as Hawaii, Japan & Guam are a lot closer. Published speed of Nimitz and Ford class carriers is simply put as "in excess of 30knots" but there are claims that its over 40knots. BUT THERE'S NOBODY saying anything over 50 let alone 90. So sorry the 90 knots just has to be a brain fart or typo. That said the actual disturbing thing is that NOBODY called him out on it.
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  24.  @truegret7778  Buddy I have just had another clown berate me over being a spoiler for fully auto-piloted cars. I have actually spent the last 30+ years in control systems and automation. I know what it takes to write software to link sensors to actions and can unequivocally state that 99% of everyone who can program can't do that sort of work. They can't look at code and see what it does in the real world in real time. They can make some stuff work but the moment things don't work they are lost. I have no doubt they can make a car that will follow a winding road with near absolute perfection. The problem is what that system does when it encounters something NEW that isn't accounted for in the code. One of the most amazing aspects of the human brain is its ability to fill in gaps in the available information and adapt its experience at incredible speed. It also gets us into trouble at times like with pilots misreading something they see and their brain goes "UFO" because their peripheral visual system has labelled it as "out of the normal - potential threat." This is my beef with non-technical people and other ignorant types. Not only do they NOT understand these nuances and details BUT they aren't interested in hearing them. The idiot who ran this sub not only killed himself he killed 4 others BECAUSE details were inconvenient. Go ask your wife about the history of aviation and how many times untrained geniuses built planes that engineers with knowledge and experience said "DON'T do that!" and it ended tragically. Better still ask your wife what happens when over 21tons of mass going at supersonic speed rams into a flat surface? Then ask her about the geniuses at SpaceX and their brilliant launch platform in Texas. If she's wondering point out the fuel flow rate of a Raptor engine and multiply that by 33. I heard a great description of the sub-clown "Brilliant Idiot"
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  34.  @cragnamorra  Yeah it was a simple thing but the respect that I got back left an impression that has stuck. On the course I did. We started with a lot of basic chart work and plotting courses around harbours. We then did a pile of celestial navigation. Our main project was plotting the course using basic principles from New York harbour (or the Chesapeake??) to just off the coast of Britain. That included using a Great Circle Chart to get the intermediate positions and then translate that onto the Atlantic charts. We had to pre-prep a couple of star fixes as well. When I went to the chief and asked why the emphasis on celestial when GPS was at that time accurate to about 1m for the military (there was no actual admission but it was certainly under 10m). He said something I have never forgotten and its an incredibly important thing across ALL OF THE ENGINEERING FIELDS - Calibration. He said "The stars don't move." Yes we know they shift but his point was we know exactly where each star is and will be for 1,000s of years to come. What he explained is that the stars are 100% reliable while sensors and computers can make mistakes. He then pointed out "If you have to fire off a nuclear armed weapon you better know where its going to go and to do that you need to know where you are in the first place." He told me that ANY SHIP armed with nukes checked its GPS against the sun & stars every 4 hours, while the rest did it 1 or twice a day (I forget which). As I said it was one of my favorite classes, because of how much I ended up learning.
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  37. ​ @wgowshipping  On your next video you should highlight the failure test of carbon fibre and glass fibre hulls that Carl Ross posted 10 years ago. He posted 2 videos titled Collapse of Composite Submarine Pressure Hulls Collapse of Carbon & Glass Fibre Tubes under External Hydrostatic Pressure. I have no idea who Carl Ross is (or was) but there's 2 things to note about those videos. 1) How sudden the failure is. If you look at how titanium fails its much like any other metal there's deformation eventually followed by failure. I am an engineer (aerospace) but did my first year in mechanical and we did that stuff in the lab. Most of the failure videos of things being crushed or bent in a hydraulic press show that but they also often show the sudden failure of carbon fibre composite materials. So you and other are most likely right the people in Titan probable had no warning it was all about to fail other than hearing a lot of cracking. 2) the Carl Ross videos show very little damage to the Carbon fibre tube other than what looks like a crack down the side. What people need to understand is that it was done in a small pressure test rig NOT the open ocean so there was very little water to keep applying pressure once the tube failed. I have done work in the petro-chem industry and other places where they pressure test pipes with water. If something does let go during a hydrostatic test there's no explosion of water because its incompressible. That test cell Carl Ross used has very little water in it so there's not a lot of volume to rush into the test model and do lots of damage. It just had enough water to break the cylinder.
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  39. AEROSPACE ENGINEER HERE - Sorry Sal but you have gotten your nuclear reactor COMPLETELY BACKWARDS. To all the reason aerospace engineers understand the nuclear options are because we'd like to build a Lunar Base. It was an aerospace engineer Kirk Sorenson who used to work for NASA and who was tasked with working out how to power a Lunar Base. From that Kirk kicked off a massive part of the nuclear discussion with his advocacy of Molten Salt reactors and Thorium fuel. I have also worked in Australia's nuclear industry on the mining side and as part of that we did an induction course that covered the full nuclear energy cycle from ore in the ground all the way through to spent fuel buried back in the ground. Also one of my workmates used to be a US Navy nuclear power plant technician/operator on aircraft carriers. FOR SHIPPING there is currently only 1 option and that is civilian versions of existing naval nuclear reactors. So for American commercial ships with nuclear power THEY WILL HAVE to use a CIVILIAN VARIANT of the GE Power reactors currently used in US Navy submarines and aircraft reactors. ALSO most of the Small Modular Reactor technology is based on Naval reactors. ALSO until the money is spent to actually develop commercially usable Molten Salt Reactors then just like with SMRs people need to stop making STUPID claims about using them. Sorry mate, I love your channel and watch it all the time but on this you are 100% WRONG. I you want I would happily do a video with you explaining these technologies.
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  41. On your next video you should highlight the failure test of carbon fibre and glass fibre hulls that Carl Ross posted 10 years ago. He posted 2 videos titled Collapse of Composite Submarine Pressure Hulls Collapse of Carbon & Glass Fibre Tubes under External Hydrostatic Pressure. I have no idea who Carl Ross is (or was) but there's 2 things to note about those videos. 1) How sudden the failure is. If you look at how titanium fails its much like any other metal there's deformation eventually followed by failure. I am an engineer (aerospace) but did my first year in mechanical and we did that stuff in the lab. Most of the failure videos of things being crushed or bent in a hydraulic press show that but they also often show the sudden failure of carbon fibre composite materials. So you and other are most likely right the people in Titan probable had no warning it was all about to fail other than hearing a lot of cracking. 2) the Carl Ross videos show very little damage to the Carbon fibre tube other than what looks like a crack down the side. What people need to understand is that it was done in a small pressure test rig NOT the open ocean so there was very little water to keep applying pressure once the tube failed. I have done work in the petro-chem industry and other places where they pressure test pipes with water. If something does let go during a hydrostatic test there's no explosion of water because its incompressible. That test cell Carl Ross used has very little water in it so there's not a lot of volume to rush into the test model and do lots of damage. It just had enough water to break the cylinder.
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