Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "Thunderf00t"
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INDUSTRIAL CONTROL SYSTEMS engineer here:
This is WHY I KNOW FSD (full self driving) is a false and misleading concept at least for the moment.
AND APOLOGIES IF THIS IS LONGISH.
FYI - My degree was in aerospace but I have spent 30+ years in industrial control systems, automation and robotics. That has included working with many sensor systems including laser scanning systems. Although I don't work with vision systems I was introduced to the basics of vision systems in 1998 and am fully aware of many of the advancements in that area.
The actual problem with FSD is the amount of information that needs to be processed.
As human beings we just don't realise how much information our visual cortex processes every second and that's because most of it is processed by our peripheral system which is NOT part of our general conscious. Its all there in our periphery and we aren't focussing on it. Our peripheral system is extraordinary at clumping things together and dismissing irrelevant clumps while alerting our conscious system of potential threats or items of interest.
For example we don't see a 100,000 leaves attached to 1,000s branches attached to a trunk connected to a root system we see a tree. We don't see several million yellowish hairs covering 4 legs a body, a tail, a head, big teeth and an even bigger set of fangs we see a lion. Out on the African savannah people don't see millions of blades of grass, 1,000s and 1,000s of antelope, wildebeests, birds, insects and other wild life. OUR BRAIN via our peripheral system filters out the noise and will latch onto that 1 lion out of all those millions and millions of items in our visual range and SCREAM "that's a threat."
Similarly when driving a car down the average suburban street we see but don't focus on the millions of leaves - we see the trees and dismiss them as NOT a threat. We see don't see all the nuts, bolts, sheets of glass, sheet metal, paint and rubber - we see parked cars and dismiss them as NOT a threat. We see the bricks, boards, windows, window frames, paint - we see houses and dismiss them as NOT a threat. BUT WE DO SEE the bouncing ball coming down a driveway and our peripheral system SCREAMS that there's a dog or a child chasing after that ball OR we'll see a flash of something else and our peripheral system will alert our conscious brain to be aware of it. Like we'll suddenly notice one of the parked cars just moved.
This is what our peripheral system does with incredible speed. It processes a staggering mass of data every second and compares it to previous seconds and then filters out all the noise. This is why certain players in team sports seem so amazing in how they can suddenly pass to another player in a way that asks "How did they see them?" The answer is they are people whose peripheral system just operates better than average and in some rare cases a lot better.
NOW TRY AND CONSIDER HOW YOU MIGHT GET A COMPUTER TO DO THAT????
Remember no 2 trees are the same, and no 2 cars are ever parked the same, and no 2 houses are the same PLUS no 2 streets are the same anywhere on the planet. There's always something different. NOW CONSIDER that the perspective (as in the visual angles) on that scene is changing every second because your car is MOVING. You now have to process the next image and compare it to previous images to pick up that movement or notice that item that gets the wider scoping part of the system to flag an item of interest to the higher level decision making part of the system.
Suddenly you will realise that the scope of the technological task to get a computer to do what the human peripheral system does is monstrous.
Once you understand the scope of the task required to to do FSD you'll quickly realise that it MIGHT BE possible for some limited situations or MIGHT be possible once we get the visual scanning systems capable of sorting through all the noise to find those few items that need a higher level of evaluation we can't even begin the task BUT RIGHT NOW we don't have those systems because if they existed we hear all about it. We'd hear about the camera that's as good or better than a human eye and we'd hear about the processor that's as good as the human peripheral system AND NOBODY is even saying they have it under development or has made "the breakthrough".
Lets also NOT forget that a bunch of car manufacturers GAVE UP on FSD about 5 years ago. Uber sold off its FSD once they, (like the car manufacturers) realised just what it would take to do the job. This is also why, with the exception of a few tiny companies desperately trying for attention (and money) have stopped trying to build self FLYING air taxis.
Sorry if this was longish but I hope you get the gist of why it might be possible in future but NOT NOW.
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@MrRaulstrnad What was your first thought?
For most people it's about 5 (usually 3-8) because they don't go beyond the switch or socket - they think of a desk lamp or a room light.
A few engineers (mostly with an electrical background) go onto the power station, but even fewer (without prompting go back to the basic metals needed.
Since I have worked in manufacturing and more recently mining I just go with the metals and my basic list is.
Tungsten (filament)
Tin (bulb cap)
Copper (low voltage wiring)
Aluminum (for the cores of the HV transmission lines)
Iron (transformers, transmission towers & lines)
Zinc (for galvanizing exposed iron components)
Nickel, Manganese & Chromium (for the stainless that wraps around HV transmission lines)
Coal (to process the iron ore)
Sulphur (to make sulphuric acid to process the other ores except aluminum)
Soda Ash (to make caustic soda to process the aluminum)
So that's at least 10 (or more) mines with all the factories that make mining equipment - diggers, trucks, crushers, conveyors, screens, tanks, pipes,..............etc
Then there's the trains, trucks, & ships that take the raw mining materials of to the processing plants.
Then there's the processing plants for taking the raw mining materials and producing raw stock - iron, nickel, aluminum smelters.....,etc.
Then there's the factories that make all the things that go into building a power station.
Then there's the factories that make all the things that go into building a power grid
Then there's the factories that make all the things that go into building a house with wiring.
Then there's the factories that make all the things that go into building a light.
And does not include any of the other infrastructure or many other raw materials required so that 1 person can have a home and turn on that light.
It's at least 20,000 and may be well over 50,000.
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