Comments by "Tony Wilson" (@tonywilson4713) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

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  12. Yeah your Canadian and you have the opposite issue to Australia where I am. I'm an engineer and was in Canada for a water treatment project in Saskatchewan (late 2017). I fell in love with Canadian football but that's another story. What Canada's water issue is, is the snow melt each year that dumps all that snow into the Canadian landscape. Since you have also grown by over 10 million people recently you also have an extra 10 million people flushing toilets and washing cloths. So there's a lot more water for the local waste treatment plants to handle. Because the tradition method is large ponds where the water moves every slowly allowing mother nature via sunlight and bacteria to break it all down to where it can simply be discharged into the river systems. The problem Canada has is those systems are not having to handle too much inflow and the water in those ponds is moving through them at a higher flow rate and that means mother nature hasn't had time to clean it. So when the snow melt happens its now flushing those ponds with only partially treated water into the rivers. Sorry but Canada need to do more of what I was doing, which was increasing the capacity of those waster water systems with newer technology. I made the most advanced waste water plant in the world work in Sask and within 6 weeks the local clown in charge let it freeze and wreck the whole place. I hadn't been fully paid when the plant was finished and NOBODY wanted to pay me to fix it because they were all too busy blaming each other. So I understand the Canadian issue quite well. Having been caught up in the middle of it.
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  14. That's a very valid point. One of the odd things is how rarely strategic missiles of ANY KIND have been used by developed nations. Yes there's been lots of bombs and rockets but not a lot of what might be called strategic missiles where they are targeting from range a specific thing like the Ukrainians are doing at ammo dumps right now. There's been a lot of RPGs and in a few cases missiles like the stinger that are fired from MAPADS or off the shoulder. There was a lot smart bombs dropped in Gulf War 1 and a few other places. Other than the Falklands where the Argentinians used the Exocet to great effect the only other times I can think off hand where a lot of missiles were used was Gulf War 1 where the Iraqis shot SCUDs at Israel and Gulf War 2 where America used a lot of Tomahawks for strategic strikes before sending in troops. Because of air combat there's been a huge number of air-to-air, surface-to-air and air-to-surface missiles used, but in terms of surface-to-surface tactical missiles there's not been that much. There's probably a few other cases but I can't remember when 2 sides with lots of missiles faced off. In Ukraine BOTH sides have lots of missiles and they also have guided artillery shells which have been used to devastating effect. HIMARS has been staggeringly effective. In fact so effective quite a few nations are now ordering it or increasing their order. I'm Australian and we have lots of Navy issues being discussed right now(???) and what sorts of missiles we are wanting to get like Tomahawks and LRASMs. In looking into that discussion one of the very odd things I found was how little there's been of naval conflict since WW2. Other than the Falkland's when 5 ships (4 Brit & 1 Argentinian) an older sub were lost by the Argentinians and a few other smaller boats were lost there hasn't been much. There's been a few missiles like the USS Stark in 87 and the Moskva. One of the really odd things is how few torpedos have been used. In WW2 torpedos were fired off by the 1,000. Since WW2 the number is 10 fired by submarines and I only know of 1 fired by and aircraft. There might be more. Wikipedia only lists 7 on its main page fired by submarines. I found 3 more fired by an Argentinian sub during the Falklands at what they thought was a ship and they think it might have been a whale. And just now when I was looking for details on that I found a British Lynx helicopter launched a Mk 46 torpedo at the ARA Sante Fe but failed to hit.
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  21. I'm Australian but did my degree in aerospace at U. Illinois (2hrs from Indianapolis). I ended up working the Australian iron ore industry. Back around 2002 I met Harrison Schmitt (Apollo 17) and at that time he was a proponent of Helium-3 mining on the moon. So I went off to our mining industry for experience at building & operating remote mining sites. Around 2010 there were people trying to fund a pig iron smelter in Australia's lesser known iron ore region - the Gascoyne in Western Australia. The Kimberly region further north is where most of those Japanese, Korean and Chinese cars start. The Kimberly is known for very high grades of iron ore while the Gascoyne has lower grades. This company had come across a new version of pig iron manufacture that was suited to lower ore grades and they were telling people that the future of pig iron looked very promising because they predicted a shortfall in supply particularly in high quality pig iron which this new process was for. So I know there were some people talking about the future of pig iron at least 12 years ago. The problem was it was during the aftermath of the 2008 GFC and the industry was trying to deal with the issue of no money for anything and low prices. There were several major projects (port & rail) in the Gascoyne that died. On growth when I first went into our mining industry (circa 2005 - yeah it took time to get there) there was a growth spurt going. They wanted to increase the output from about 200 Mta (million tons per annum) to around 400 million tons. By 2005 they were up to 250+ so it finally made it possible for me to get my chance. We are now producing OVER 800 Mta. In fact in 2017 it was 885Mta. I think its back around 820Mta at the moment. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emm5aHAifMg So on growth you're 1/2 right. People thought it was bonkers when they wanted to double our output. We are now more than double that and showing no signs of stopping. In fact with Ukraine off line its the best we have ever had. This is the first I have heard anyone discuss pig iron in a while. It does and doesn't surprise me. It surprises me that nobody listened 12 years ago because it made sense and doesn't surprise me that nobody listened because who listens to common sense. And yes I do have some very blunt discussions with the clowns who want to mine asteroids. They're so dumb. They really can't tell the difference between science fiction and science fact.
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  27. ​ @jeffyoung60  I spent 4 months in Saskatchewan building a water treatment plant back in 2017/18 so I am fairly well aware of how Canadians feel about America. They especially made those feelings known when trump tore up NAFTA and smacked them with tariffs. YES - I was there when that happened. But I agree on the 51st state thing. Its a joke Australian's like to tell regarding Australian foreign policy. A few years ago when Australia was nominated for a 2 year stint on the UN Security council those who opposed it simply said "Why should we bother they'll only vote how America tells them to vote!" Our answer to that was "That's outrageous the American's never tell us how to vote. Our diplomats sound out suggestions and then wait for the Americans to nod." Actually we knew full well we had been annexed during the war. There was actually a lot of tension at times between American servicemen stationed in Australia and the local population. There were a lot of Australian men overseas fighting and a lot of American's here chasing their wives and girlfriends. It didn't go down well. Its not something you hear much about these days except from older people. As for NOT bullying Canada and Australia please go and check out trade negotiations. When NAFTA was re-negotiated the Canadians were very seriously bullied into accepting the deal. It wasn't that Canadians were against re-negotiating the deal. When I was there and Trump tore up NAFTA they weren't upset with that. They were pretty logical abut it. They knew American industry was hurting and their needed to be re-negotiation of the trade agreements. What they objected to was being made the scapegoat. Right now if you are not aware of it there could be a monstrous backlash from the Australian population against America. There's a lot of American soft influence going on. Its mainly through consultants like McKinsey, EY and KPMG. Right now PwC has been outed as having screwed Australia and that should end up in criminal convictions. On top of that its been revealed that a bunch of retired American Navy men have been here since 2012 consulting on the submarines and other Navy purchases. Most of them have salaries over $$$ million and their advice is turning out to be the same sort of worthless shite that American 60 Minutes recently showed regarding the US Navy procurement system. Right now it feels like every Australian issue involves overrated overpaid American consultants for crap advice. We do need to accept responsibility for hiring them but the backlash is coming.
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  28.  @chiefgilray  Yeah I agree. One thing we do need is to tell the Americans to back off a bit and the biggest problem I see us having with American's isn't their culture or their people its their politics and economics (as a combination). Sorry if this is another long reply, but it will explain part of why everyone needs to tell America to back off. I actually went to college in America and did aerospace engineering (U. of Illinois). I was there during the 85 (mid-term) & 87 election (POTUS) election seasons and it drove me so nuts I never wanted anything to do with ANY politics again. BUT these days we don't have that luxury and we need to consider how American politics and economics function. Its one reason why I think a lot of people are watching people like Peter. They want to understand this stuff. Right now one of the biggest issues in the world is that there's a difference between How America is supposed to work and how it is working. No matter how much we might like or dislike America, its still 1/4 of the worlds economy and the US Dollar is still the worlds reserve currency and America still has so much military firepower it can smash anything it wants. The SOURCE of that problem is most American's no longer have a good understanding of: 1) How their own country actually functions versus how they think it functions; and 2) How the rest of the world actually functions. When I was there in the late 80s EVERYONE had studied (what they called) Civics in high school. It was where they learned how America functioned and I wished Australia had its version of that. It used to embarrass me how well informed they all were on things like the US Constitution and how their system worked. I did engineering but a bunch of my friends were pre-law and were right into that stuff. They dragged me into their discussions all the time. So even though I didn't like their politics I did got informed on how America was SUPPOSED TO FUNCTION and yes I love to catch up with a few people and ask a few pertinent questions. What none of us knew at that time was that a group of people out of the U. of Chicago (UoC), Harvard and Yale formed what we now know as the Federalist Society. People are starting to finally working out who these people are and what they have been working on for almost 40 years, which is tearing down and then re-building America into THEIR VERSION of what America should be. Its very much like what the Ayatollah's did in Iran but from an economic standpoint. People need to realise that these 3 Universities are PRIVATELY OWNED. So they make their own rules. Plus UoC was founded (in part) by John D. Rockefeller and although I can't say with 100% certainty, my conclusion is UoC was set up to find ways to re-build the entire world into a Rockefellian system. One its most prominent professors, Milton Freidman, basically said "Government is hopeless and we (the private sector) should run everything." Out of UoC also came James McKinsey (professor of accounting) who founded McKinsey Consultants and kicked off the consulting industry after which is now a cancer on our governments. From UoC's political science department we got wonderful things like "Offensive Realism" and the Neo-conservative movement that gave us the 2 longest wars (Iraq & Afghanistan) since WW2. But most of all out of UoC came Neoliberal Economics (Friedrich Hayek, Milton Freidman, Ronald Coase,....) that's dominated world economics since Reagan gave us Reaganomics and Thatcher gave us Thatcherism. Its resulted in the greatest wealth transfer in history and if you doubt that go and look up the report Bernie Sanders got the US Congressional Budget Office to update on "Family Wealth." Almost nothing has been said about this report in ANY media including social media. Just look at the 1st Graph on that report and it tells you that 50% of the American population has GONE NOWHERE in the last 30 years, while the Middle 40% has had some gains the TOP 10% have gained about $60 Trillion dollars in Wealth. That thin brown line across the bottom of that graph now represents 165 million people who are not only impoverished, but to get out of that poverty need to spend staggering amounts to get educated enough to get out. I have checked the Australian data which is presented a little differently but it tells the same basic story. Go an watch some of Gary Stevenson the young British Economist. In his 20s he became a multi-millionaire and became Citibank's top trader in the world and he did it betting AGAINST the Brits recovering from the GFC. He's now saying the same sorts of things about Britain. Sorry for the long reply, but its stuff I think people should know about and be discussing. The American people are NOT the problem their politicians, economists and the people who back them ARE the problem.
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  39. Great points but Americans don't like to discuss them much. Bottom line is the country that has promoted itself as the great leader in "Freedom and Democracy" has denied all of the people of those territories there basic democratic rights. None of those people have any representatives with voting in congress or have any senators and they do not vote on the president. Puerto Rico has a population of almost 3.3 Million and that's more than the populations of Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, Montana, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, West Virginia, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico, Kansas, Mississippi, Arkansas, Nevada, Iowa, Utah. Each of those states gets 2 Senators and at least 1 and as many as 4 House of Representatives. The combined population of North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska and Wyoming is less than 3 million people and yet they get 8 Senators and 1 representative each in the House. While Puerto Rico, just like DC and a few of the territories gets 1 representative in the House who can't vote. By Population alone Puerto Rico should get 2 Senators and 4 House Reps. USVI, Mariana, Guam and American Samoa and DC has a combined population of just over 1 million and Each of them get 1 House Rep who can't vote. Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Delaware each have less than 1 million people and each of them get 2 Senators and a House Rep who can vote. And if you want the more satirical view of this look up the YouTube channel juice media for the Honest Government ad on Puerto Rico.
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  48. ​ @emceeboogieboots1608  My brother called us the 51st state every chance he had. On being aligned with America has kept us safe for 70+ years. Yes we have had to go to the occasional war but security is never free. I don't think Australians think we are better than Americans on a person by person basis but most of the Western World is better than America on things like labor standards, gun control and superannuation. On education and Healthcare its a split decision because for those Americans who get both they get fantastic in both. But for the majority of the US population we beat them by several miles. Its actually the greatest risk there is with America at the moment - the cultural divide. Eventually they are going to work out that the real divide is NOT between Left & Right which America actually does NOT have. American has Diet-Lite Right and Hard Core Right. The real divide in America is the Rich and the Rest. Right now its easier to go from being a millionaire to billionaire than it is to becoming a millionaire in the first place. They've geared the economic system in favor of those with money and they keep everyone else trapped in a fictitious culture war hoping they don't wake up. As George Carlin famously said "It's called the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe in it." The saddest thing is Australia is so hell bent on following the American lead we are in serious danger of ending up like them. We have seriously well funded think tanks and lobbyists here pushing damn hard to do EXACTLY what America has done.
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