Comments by "" (@thomasherrin6798) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
channel.
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
@Gizziiusa China to the West is a strange place, and it does things that no other country has done, and this could be that they are super efficient or extremely inefficient or a mixture of both. Their G.D.P. trajectory suggests efficiency, their debt pile of 300% of G.D.P. to achieve that G D.P. (and rising) suggests inefficiency, and that is the concern, their large surplus is swallowed up by underlying debt due to inefficiencies in the property market, non productive infrastructure investment and the like, it seems unlikely all will end well, and that's without COVID. COVID has had a negative effect on all the World economies, but China has kept it going for four years, to the end of 2023 being likely due to the second winter wave, where everyone else has taken two years, and China's death rate will still be equivalent to that of the Wider West and other countries!?!
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Winter will be O.K. it's more expensive but solutions exist to counteract that in the long term, short term it's manageable, it's only because of Mainland Europe's dependence on Russian Energy and it's quick withdrawal that has caused problems, it won't happen again (I hope!). Europe will make 20 year contracts with "trusted" suppliers from the world market if that's the cheapest option, Germany is building 5 LNG terminals at present for completion next year, and so it sees its future that way forward for the immediate future. It is a changing time for Europe but that does not mean the wrong path has been chosen, it does not have carbon energy supplies in sufficient quantities but renewables is a long term solution to enable independence from a hostile carbon energy market, and though inroads have been made with renewables, it has a further decade to go, but the pace will increase in intensity. With regard to furnaces and all that it's down to the price of energy again, and when this is stabilised the industries will rise up again, we have been here before! If America's picture is so rosy why is there so much discontent, it also has large swathes disused Rust bucket industries. It is using too many resources per person and it should cut back on them, it is incurring a debt burden because of that (not to the extent that China has, you can thank god) but it is not the land of milk and honey, it does have its own problems, but I'm sure the Wider West will benefit from closer cooperation and put at arms length the Autocratic regime's which seek to undermine us, deeds not words!?!
1
-
1
-
@erlandhov1409 Germany greatly miscalculated Russia for decades and furnished them with the capital to start the wars, the Obama administration and Mainland Europe (Apart from the UK and Baltics and Nordics, who were sidelined!) compounded that with its lacklustre response to the Donbas and Crimea invasions. US led NATO did however start training the Ukrainians following the 2014 invasion and the US did signal to Ukraine that Russia was due to invade Ukraine through Belarus and Crimea, which Ukraine dismissed at the time and resulted in them being caught with their pants down. The US, UK , Baltic and Nordic countries initially did exceptionally well in supplying aid for defence and humanitarian purposes against the Russia horde. If the US had not intervened in the conflict (Which is in Europe) with the slow German (Due to the energy dependency) and French (Due to its own interests) response, Ukraine would have lost the war in 2022. Mainland Europe is finally (After majorly being cut off from Russian energy) getting its act together in 2023, with the sterling US effort, which will aid all democratic European Countries and promote strength against the Autocratic regimes. The US will be better served with its allies in Europe increasing its defence due to the Russian invasion, however to have strong allies it should strike trade deals with Europe and resist ties with Autocratic States, this is the best policy in the long run!?!
1
-
Where do you start with this one, Germany, Italy and other European countries reliance on Russian Energy was foolish, their decision (For both countries) not to build New Nuclear is baffling, Germany cites the dangers with nuclear accidents which has directly killed around 10,000 people worldwide, however burning the nice brown coal kills 3,500 people annually in Germany "alone" , Germany is progressing with wind power at a bureaucratic pace (Slow and stop), solar really only works in Southern Europe as when you need it the most in Northern Europe it doesn't work. Germany has quickly built a number of LNG terminals with more to follow in 2023 and 2024 and has secured a 15 year supply (hopefully from "secure" sources this time), which is commendable. However it still does not address the fundamental problem that Europe has with Energy and renewables (Including at least 25% new nuclear) is the answer as that can be put in our backyard. The OPEC and OPEC+ countries are hostile to Europe (....and Asia but that's up to them to work it out) and therefore the transition must be made sooner rather than later, it would be better to plan a Europe wide energy infrastructure but that is too much to ask. I live in the UK, and we have also made big energy errors in the past but by 2030-2035 we will be majorly renewable energy independent, and by 2040 (.....and two trillion quid, one trillion on wind, nuclear and solar and one trillion on grid upgrades) totally energy independent, I hope Europe can do the same, but at present that doesn't appear to be the case, it's all a bit of a quick fix muddle!?!
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
The two major nuclear power plant accidents have claimed directly around 3,500 lives each approximately, and contaminated a large swathe of land (of which Ukraine has plenty), since the start of the war Ukraine has been losing that amount of people on average every fortnight, it has the potential to be worse but not much as the plant has been idle for months, the people who perpetrate this act should be immediately indicted for war crimes right up to Shoigu? and Putin. It would better serve Ukraine to have more long range missiles (They have been waiting for 2,000 for over a year now), more patriot systems etc. quicker rather than escalating the war by bringing NATO in, so they can carry out the task in hand, delay is causing the pauses in war, we have "gone in" now go "all in" in supplying the equipment required, and Russia should be threatened that if civilians are further targeted indiscriminately then no target will be off limits in Russia to Ukraine!?!
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1