Comments by "" (@thomasherrin6798) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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He did, the dollar was not going to fade anytime soon he said, as 65% of the World trade is done by the Wider West, BRICS countries are not fairing well, Brazil and Argentina are mooting a common currency but Argentina is starting from a low point so it is unlikely to get off the ground and will take a decade if it does, Russia is in an expensive war and it's economy is deflating at a rate of knots, India is showing promise but has burecratic hindrance to foreign investors and companies, China has 57 Trillion USD in debt to date so not a good recommendation as they will be the defacto backstop to the "new" currency, South Africa is mired in corruption and mismanagement. They could start a new currency, or use the yuan, but it's foundations are not structurally sound for doing so!?!
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The immediate problem is COVID, a solution exists, it has already been implemented in the West. It has not been implemented in China because they have chosen the lockdown route which Initially worked, but however, as the virus has become more transmissible it is not working now, due in part, to relaxing of lockdowns. The C.C.P. is not going to stop lockdowns unless a viable vaccine is in place as the problem goes up by a factor of 10, which they found out in Hong Kong. The C.C.P. has not indicated that it is ready to carry out vaccinations from the West on the elderly and vulnerable (At least two doses, maybe three, which will be a six to 12 month programme where lockdowns must remain in place). The third option is to continue with the lockdowns and deter protesters in their usual C.C.P. fashion by intimidation, beatings, imprisonment etc. which at present is still the preferred route. It has very little to do with the West, and the West will not change China's direction of travel, so a lot more pain for the citizens for at least three years or more, with the C.C.P. still in charge, things will have to get a lot worse for any major changes to be made!?!
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I think Peter is only looking at most at 50 years into the future, and it is only a prediction, events has a way of changing things in unexpected ways, I think he's referring to a time in the Middle East when carbon will not be the main energy source of the World, which may be because known reserves are due to run out in 50 years at the present rate (Or another 50 odd or so years if more reserves are found but most probably at greater cost), or if renewables are likely to take hold of the energy sector, a great movement forward which could become a game changer is if they sorted out the energy storage for low cost conundrum, then renewables can be accelerated at a fast pace, obviously any two of the above scenarios would be a nightmare for the Middle East, without oil they are unsustainable in their present form, how big the collapse is will be governed by the rate of progress in renewables, which at present, due to Russia and OPEC's weapoinising of energy, is changing at a very rapid pace in the majority of the European Continent, it will be majorly renewable energy independent by 2035 and energy independent by 2040-2045, I'm not counting on Nuclear Fusion at this time as that is into the next century before it can be widely deployed at the earliest!?!
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