Comments by "MacAdvisor" (@MacAdvisor) on "DownieLive"
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Except this is a route of about 180 miles that would be 2-½ hours by autonomous vehicle and relatively easy and far less costly road improvements. Autonomous vehicles will be here in five year, ten at the most, while the train upgrades are 20 years off. An average of 274,000 vehicles per day already travel on I5. Even assuming only ONE passenger per car, far lower than the actual usage, that means 274,000 people per day travel I5. Amtrak single most used route is the NortheastDirect with about 24,000 daily passengers. That is not even 10% of the automobile traffic on the I5 route currently. Dollar for dollar we get far better increase in carrying capacity by improving auto lanes that train tracks. Plus, autonomous vehicles leave when you want from where you want, go to where you want, bring far more stuff with you, including passengers that add directly to carrying capacity. We could have autonomous buses on this route far sooner and for far less money than trains. There are already fabulous buses available between NY and DC for as little as $22 (please see: https://www.washny.com ). Make them autonomous and you have all the aspects of the train for little more than the rolling stock, plus it is far more scalable.
Sorry, HSR, or even higher speed rail, isn't going to happen. There is not the political will or the demand and the alternatives are vastly better. This is sad, but facts are facts. Not. Going. To. Happen. Here. Not.
Mike can answer this, but I think this is the longest single thread on DownieLive ever. What do you have to say, Mike?
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@bluevortex1045 Autonomous vehicles would likely be privately owned as they offer a profitable business model that doesn't need subsidies, as do passenger trains, but they don't require personal ownership. Just as I can now rent a vehicle for a day or a few weeks, I could rent an autonomous vehicle. I currently own a small car that I use daily, but I rent a more appropriate vehicle several times year when I am taking a large number of people or hauling material. I just rented a U-haul truck last week. I have never needed to transport 100 people, but I can charter a bus if I ever do. I can drive from my home in Sacramento to San Francisco by car in an hour, forty minutes, excluding traffic, but the train, at best, is two hours, forty minutes. I have had traffic on both with the train taking, by far, the longest. The question here isn't should we get rid of the trains we have, but should we pour hundreds of billions in to building new HSR trains. You think spending the $104 billion estimated to finish the HSR now being built will increase equity? Really?
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