Comments by "Twomix" (@twomix1822) on "Bloomberg Television" channel.

  1. Short answer: No Long answer: No. Move your money else where like say Vietnam, Thailand, or the Philippines. Invest in China at your own risk. All the big investors are saying yes until the CCP decided to REPO their capital.
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  2. They are estimating China's real estate industry had something like $8-9 trillion dollars in hidden debt.
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  3. "Common prosperity" isn't a new thing. It was a political slogan during the Mao era. It ended badly for China.
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  4. 5.5% realistic? Well it's China. They can make up whatever number they like for political expediency. The reality however is questionable.
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  5. Over 200+ financial institutions in China (banking and non-banking) are on hook if Evergrande/Hengda goes under.
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  6. Suicides due to financial strain and “murder covered up as suicides” are very common in China because China does not have general personal bankruptcy protection laws. It only has personal bankruptcy protection on very specific cases and only on certain cities like Shenzhen.
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  7. China is uninvestable.
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  8. Not just a few buildings, they have entire ghost cities worth of empty uninhabitable buildings that have no value and are just sitting there rotting under the sun.
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  9. It's not just military alliance but economic and political as well. And yes it's awesome. The goal isn't just military but to strengthen the Indo-Pacific supply chain especially for semi-conductors.
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  10.  @HH-el8vp  I doubt it will take the world with them but there could be some exposure to western investment institutions like Blackrock.
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  11. China is uninvestable.
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  12. Credit Suisse: “Everything is peachy!” In other news, Biden announce additional sanctions on China as well as a Beijing 2022 winter olympics diplomatic boycott. Beijing threatened retaliation against US sanctions and encircles Taiwan. COVID Omnicron spread to 110 countries around the world. Evergrande announces bankruptcy. US stock exchanges delisted 200 Chinese stocks. Credit Suisse: “Just like in Tiananmen Square in 1989, nothing big happened. We’re still optimistic about business in China.”
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  13. Trump's trade wars gonna screw the poorest Americans in red states hard. I expect a recession soon.
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  14. He was in the board of Alibaba until 2019.
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  15. The way I see is the Chinese government will bail out their own and and US Wall Street investors will be left holding the proverbial bag. As I understand it Blackrock and other western financial companies like HSBC hold something like $20 billion dollars in Evergrande bond loans. A tiny amount compared to $300 billion but US investors will be screwed.
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  16.  @WilliamAshleyOnline  that's not how it works. It still needs to purchase US dollar in the global currency markets to artificially weaken the RMB.
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  17.  @unknownuser6809  True. The CCP considers all wealth in China belonging to the state/government. There is no such thing as private wealth in China.
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  18. US Wall Street needs to stop giving money to the totalitarian CCP regime.
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  19.  @lettucesalad3560  Yep the entire Chinese real estate industry is a scam used to prop up "GDP". Latest record shows 55 million.. yes.. million empty and abandoned properties in China. One thing about houses and human constructed infrastructure is they rot and requires active maintenance, unoccupied properties tends to rot the fastest. A rotting property is called an urban blight.
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  20. China, Iran, North Korea and Russia laughing their heads off as their agent of chaos Trump destroys the US led global economic and security alliance previous US presidents spent decades cultivating.
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  21. They will bail out the locals but western asset management companies with massive exposure to Evergrande like Vanguard, Blackrock, HSBC, etc. are screwed. I'm laughing my head off at Wall Street and corporate America still investing and dumping their money in China. They are gonna get what they deserve -- massive losses and bad debts. Evergrande is just the tip of the iceberg. The next gonna fall are Sunac, Vanke, Soho, etc.
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  22. There's no way out short of a massive multibillion dollar government bail out and the central government of China is basically saying "this crap is all your own doing we're not touching it with a 10 foot pole". Frankly the central government doesn't have the necessary funds to bail them out either way (it's broke too). Note: All the bonds are USD denominated, it's not like the Chinese government can magically create more USD out of thin air like they could with RMB debts. Chinese USD reserve is the lowest in decades (used to be $4T USD now its down to $3.2T). They would need at least $400-500B to bail this out and that would eat into a massive chunk of the USD reserves. Plus bailing this out would send a terrible message that the elites could keep doing this over and over and the government would bail them out.
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  23.  @rdcsg  most of the supply chain for semiconductors runs thru East and Southeast Asia. In the event war erupts you need the manpower and defense systems ready. Semiconductors are now the life blood of the global economy not just oil.
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  24.  @multatuli1  they are preparing for the war to be started by China.
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  25.  @rdcsg  they are investing heavily in Australia and India for the global supply chain now that China will no longer be the factory of the world. They call it diversification.
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  26.  @multatuli1  I doubt Xi is just talking BS. They are spending $200-300 billion a year in military hardware. Don't underestimate how a totalitarian regime lashes out at its weaker neighbor like Taiwan.
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  27.  @multatuli1  the CCP regime doesn’t care about bombing their own people. There are a ton of Chinese nationals in Taiwan but they still threaten to bomb them. One lesson learned in the Munich Accords is if you backdown and tried to make peace with a bully this will only embolden the bullies. The best way to deal with bullies is to stand up against them, gang up against them and kick their butt if they try to be violent. Unfortunately, once words no longer works, it’s time to back it up with action. I’m all in for diplomacy but if diplomacy no longer works, then its time to kick butt.
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  28. He is right, unfortunately as long as there are a vast swath of humanity that hasn't been vaccinated yet this pandemic isn't going away anytime soon. This isn't just a problem for one country, this is a problem for the entirety of the human race. As of this writing only about 55% of the entire population of the Earth has been vaccinated with at least one dose, we need to hit 70% at least.
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  29. Ironically these are all self inflicted wounds.
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  30. Well the danger is if they inject too much money it would create an artificial asset bubble. It's a tough decision. Most likely they are going conservative. Inject little by little to see how the market will react.
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  31. Asia is the future so why not.
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  32. While the west is fixated on Evergrande at least 4-5 other major real estate companies in China just defaulted as well. The shitshow has just started.
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  33. Makes it very expensive to export products.
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  34.  @kongwee1978  yes. This means manufacturer would have to adjust their supply chain. Inflation in the US means people are buying less too.
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  35. Basically Xi is now faced with a damn if you do, damn if you don't dilemma. High housing prices is unsustainable however if he caused the property prices to crash, the people who speculated by putting all their money on real estate are gonna enrage on him. Either way, someone is gonna enrage here. This is a systemic problem that should have been addressed 10-15 years ago.
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  36. The ponzi scheme is starting to collapse.
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  37. He was in the board of Alibaba until 2019.
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  38. The lynchpin is in China's real estate. Real estate market in China is severely overheated (warning signs already showing). If the real estate market in China implodes I think the whole domino effect will crash the Chinese economy. We'll be seeing something akin to the US 2008 toxic mortgage crisis but on steroids because most Chinese (78%) tie their wealth to the real estate market (what they say about putting all your eggs in one basket). This is why the consumption economy isn't picking up in China instead real estate keeps going up and up despite government tightening of credits. This produces a potentially very dangerous outcome. If the real estate bubble burst we are looking at a doomsday scenario where 7 out of 10 regional banks in China running out of cash or going bankrupt. Right now the Chinese government needs to thread a careful line between managing economic growth and playing Russian roulette with the real estate market.
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  39. 🤣🤣🤣 Strong Yuan makes it very expensive to export products.
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  40. Not that it doesn't want to but it can't. The RMB is artificially pegged to the US dollar thru Hong Kong exchanges.
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  41.  @WilliamAshleyOnline  okay.. then go to a grocery store buy $100 worth of groceries and then pay them $1 and tell them to imagine that $1 is $100 let's see what the reaction is.
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  42.  @WilliamAshleyOnline  No. The value of money is agreed upon by two or more authoritative parties. The buyer and the merchant can agree a piece of bread can cost $1.50 or not. If you agree you pay the price and buy the bread. If you don't you move on to another bread merchant. The same too is with the global currency the USD (the chinese agreed to pay 6.3 rmb for 1 USD). If the seller of the USD agreed then they get to buy it if not then they move on. This is called market economy.
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  43. The global currency market is based on market economy principles not on imagination.
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  44.  @joegage1255  LOL they can roll out whatever but few government trust China’s government. The USD still dominates the currency market (60%) for a reason. The USD is a free floating market currency while the RMB is not.
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  45.  @incipidsigninsetup  How can there be private wealth when the government can simply take it away at any time ?
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  46.  @paulzhang1310  little pinky.. don't let me break your fragile heart. 🤣🤣🤣
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  47.  @paulzhang1310  China isn't rising. It's bankrupt. Because it's entire so called economy is a giant Ponzi scheme. Everything is fake and hollowed out.
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  48.  @paulzhang1310  it cannot even let its own people see information freely. Everything has to be approved by the dictatorship.
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  49.  @paulzhang1310  Also Taiwan is a country. Tibet is a country. East Turkistan is a country. Think of it this way, what government censors all information from the outside from its own people. Only a very insecure and totalitarian government does that. Why ? Because it doesn't want its own people to realize they live in a dystopian shithole.
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  50.  @paulzhang1310  The CCP's economy cannot innovate it can only steal ideas. Communism doesn't allow critical thinking. Only copy and steal. They are called communist bandit for a reason.
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