Comments by "" (@orboakin8074) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. As a Nigerian, i hope this eventually leads to Russia failing here in Africa. They helped overthrow democracy in the Sahel (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso) and now insecurity has gotten worse. They also control the gold mines there and the juntas are removing civil liberties and this insecurity is now spreading to the rest of west Africa.
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  2. As a Nigerian, i am grateful the reguon that became my country was colonized by the British and not the French. At least the British actually laid down socioeconomic and political frameworks that led to some semblance of stable nation building and they were more benevolent than the French.
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  3. As a Nigerian, i am glad to see your objective coverage of African geopolitics. Your assessment on Russian and Chinese moves here is so true. China is pretty much here for cheap resource extraction and debt diplomacy for their own benefit. Already they have started repossessing government houses and planes and other assets from my country since our inept government is heavily indebted to them for projects that are largely incomplete. As for Russia, they're here for displacing the west and easy access to resources for their war in Ukraine. The three Sahel countries that "kicked out" France with the help of Russia are already experiencing increased insecurity and hardly anyone talks about that. The Tuareg rebels are gaining more ground and even these insurgencies are making way into the rest of west Africa. Even in the North of my country, during the recent protests, there were several agitators waving Russian flags and demanding regime change here😔😔😔😔
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  4. Thanks for your take on my country. Very objective and correct. Our sociopolitical and economic situation is, as you described, tenuous but relatively stable. Our politics is democratic but riddled with corruption but also much more stable compared to several of our neighbors. Oil is the economic lichpin here but we have been desperately working to move away from sole dependence on it and have been making many economic reforms. Today, services and finance tend to bring more to our economy, with agriculture also growing. We need to do more. Plus, we recently removed our oil subsidy that was a drain on our economy.
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  5. 7:04 Thanks for this point. Many people assume we don't have good relations or ties with the west or Europe here but that is far from true. We have some of the best geopolitical and economic ties with the UK, Germany, USA (we buy billions in military equipment from them) and France (oir army frequently runs drills with France to combat terrorists and pirates) on trade and security. Also, while Nigeria may trade a lot with China, we are not a strong Chinese ally, as many assume. They rejected us for BRICS membership (mainly due to our stronger western ties) and when the USA and other G20 members offered us a more solid membership, we gladly took it. We are actually more aligned with the west than many people realize. We have stronger diplomatic, military and economic ties with the west. Heck! We also have a long-standing relationship with India. China is an major economic partner for us but not a strong geopolitical one.
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  6. As a Nigerian, i am glad that the west(US anyway) will still maintain military hegemony for a while more. Lord knows you guys are more trustworthy and better to deal with than the Wokf Warrior Chinese.
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  7. Mexico is legit an exemplary country and one that is a rising star, despite the insecurity. Respect from Nigeria
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  8. As a Nigerian, here's my simple answer: Bad geography, poor social and economic systems, poor political systems, failing legal and social institutions, dutch disease, tribalism and others. Also, the colonialism excuse is just lazy and mainly used by tribalist Arabs as an excuse. Same way Pan-Africans use it as an excuse for Africa's failings.
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  9. I really hope Ukraine win this and Russia pays for everything they have done. I am no longer indifferent about this conflict.
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  10. Ngl, as a Nigerian this prospect scares me. The maon reason global trade and stability has existed was because of the USA. I really hope they maintain some global presence or that other similarly aligned powers step in.
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  11. The Middle East has been an unstable mess since ny grandma was a kid in Nigeria (way before modern Israel existed). It has remained such since i was a kid and it will likely remain that after i am gone. They are bot nearly geopolitically relevant to start a world war but they will remain unstable mainly due to their own issues.
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  12. @faisal0280  no, you are right. But then again, no country has a stellar record but let's just say there's more reasons why most of us in Africa (at least sub-Saharan) still prefer to have relations and diplomacy with the west, America etc than with places like Russia. We can at least trust Americans to be more honest in dealings and guarantee security for shipping and trade.
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  13. God bless and protect you all in Ukraine. Love from Nigeria
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  14.  @mr.takethingstooseriously  friend, if you want a country run by oligarchs, maybe relocate to Russia, Ukraine, or North Korea😞 We have corruption in Nigeria but to call us an oligarchs is just nonsense.
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  15.  @Rowlph8888  friend, America and much of Europe outsourced and offshore their manufacturing to China. Does that make them beholden to China? Japan also trades heavily with China. Are they beholden to China? Yes, during our former president, buhari's, time, my country borrowed a lot of money from China for infrastructure and general loans but that's just it. He needed cheaper loans for his legacy projects, many of which failed and just indebted us. That being said, we really aren't a Chinese ally; just a trading partner. Also, there is no real threat of China seizing our infrastructure like they did to Sri Lanka. This is cause our economy can actually service those debts, but at huge cost. At the end, we are more aligned with the west due to geography, history, economic and some sociocultural ties.
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  16. @kabzaify  oh, I am not misinformed at all, friend. I know that the downfall of Libya after Gadaffi led to more insurgency spreading down to us in the Sahel and west Africa but I also know the west didn't cause that collapse. Gadaffi created the rebel movements that eventually toppled him by his repression of tribes and political dissidents. The only thing the west did was help rebels at the last minute. Without them, the same outcome would have happened.
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  17. Exactly 😂The Middle East has been an unstable mess since ny grandma was a kid in Nigeria (way before modern Israel existed). It has remained such since i was a kid and it will likely remain that after i am gone. They are not nearly geopolitically relevant to start a world war but they will remain unstable mainly due to their own issues.
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  18. True but there's some merit to it. I remember some Emirate guy saying " My grandfather rode a camel. My father drove a car. I drive an SUV. My son drives a sports car. But my grandson will ride a camel" I am paraphrasing but I believe it is clear that even they know their society is not viable in the long-run
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  19. This is sorta makes sense. Here in Nigeria, Germany is looking to increase their trade with us, especially in our natural gas. Energy needs and Putin are making many countries look for alternative partners.
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  20.  @TheNightMan00  oh, thanks for sharing and glad you have such a positive opinion of us☺️ Also, you absolutely right. Our country is technically a federal democratic republic but true federalism has yet to be established yet but this is something we are getting close to achieving. Thankfully, a national identity and language has been more established with time and secularism is becoming more ingrained in our public affairs and institutions. Federalism is the likely next step. It is slow but much better once we get it.
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  21.  @yellowwasprakija2869  sure, keep telling yourself that😕
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  22. A weird possibility of resolution to this coukd be that Israel annexes northern Gaza, installs a civilian Palestinian government there, and assimilates the Palestinians there after purging Hamas. I know it sounds ridiculous but could this have any possibility of happening? I am one of those people who doesn't see the "two-state solution" as anything viable at all.
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  23. Well, he's not exactly wrong there. I'm not an American and even I know that the USA is in a much better geopolitical situation than most countries on earth
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  24. How so? Maybe to someone in the developed world, it's not true. But for someone like me in the developing world (Nigeria), they are. They're industrializing and their manufacturing and close proximity to the USA already benefits them massively. Not to mention their infrastructure is leagues above most of Africa. Also, they can keep the lights on for a while day most of Africa can't manage this.
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  25. This is the kind of news and scientific updates that i live for! Instwad of the usual crazy western alarmism about how everything is wrong and the workd is ending, i am so happy to see a westerner reporting in the ongoing beneficial scientific innovation and research.
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  26.  @rh906  the majority of the whining comes from mainly countries that are not western aligned or of much global consequence, even here in Africa. You'd be surprised how many of our countries here actually prefer the western-led (mainly US) global order.
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  27.  @mr.takethingstooseriously  friend, same thing could be said for most places on earth. Heck! One party has consistently won democratic elections in Japan post WW2🤣 In any society, the elites, especially political ones, get more consolidated over time. Yes, this gets stagnant but also leads to more stability. It also leads to genuine but slow change improving society compared to radical change from authoritarianism. Also, I am Edo and no member of my tribe has ever held Presidential or VP power. Why don't I, or others in my state, feel underrepresented? Because that's democracy. The ones who have means and clout to become political elites get it but they still need my vote to win. We do have democracy here, friend. It's not perfect but that is the case for most of the world. It's also better than whatever they have in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Eritrea etc
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  28.  @KrzysiekWawrytko  yes and no. Russia may seize some territory but their future is destroyed because of this war and their continued fai d social and economic policies. This war of desperation won't stop the decline they are already facing.
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  29. I am coming to this conclusion regarding him as well and I am one of the newer people who discovered him fairly recently. While he has some good foreign policy takes, his takes on US scene are really shortsighted and plagued by partisan biases.
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  30. @kabzaify  I dunno. My country (Nigeria), others like Ghana, Kenya, Namibia etc have strong long ties to the west and we have better stability compared to places like Sudan, Somalia, Libya, Eritrea, Ethiopia etc that have little to no relations with the West
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  31. Yes! Finally, you talk about us in Africa. I know there will be many problems here but it is nice to see your expert opinion on our countries (Nigeria, in my case) You absolutely nailed it on the point of lack of unity in the past but the things like socioeconomic development, infrastructure, and even holdovers from British colonialism like a national language and political system, this is what has led to more unity. It is absolutely true that what we are looking to do is establish more diplomatic and economic ties to more foreign partners, especially the west. Yes, we have deals with China and India but we are more allied with the west than most would expect.
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  32.  @humansarecrazybeing5730  yeah, what does colonialism have to do with this?also, pretty sure the main reason Asia is rising has been due to I creased trade with the west and the development and benefits from that trade.
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  33. ​ @jamrollz "insurrection"😂 Also, what exactly makes you think the Republicans or Democrats or any party can/should have any right to influence the Supreme Court?!
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  34.  @Maximusx_MX  um, you're thinking about Niger republic. They are the ones with uranium
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  35. Some developments i have seen like Saudi Arabia sending aid to Palestinians via Egypt is interesting as it shows that they have possibly reached a deal with Israel and Egypt to ensure aid ONLY gets to Palestinians and not Hamas. That's good.
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  36. Many thanks. Honestly, what we mainly need are to fix our insecurity problem and electricity problem. Once these two are done, even corruption will be manageable. One thing my dad always told me as a kid was that Africa's problem is not corruption, but that our corruption doesn't work like that in modern developed countries. I.e. it cannibalizeds economic growth and development here.
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  37. As a Nigerian, thanks for making this video. You covered the points objectively. It is surprising to me how many westerners and even some Africans actually think we in west Africa support this coup. We are appalled by it and we know how it will lead to insecurity and increased social and economic problems for us.
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  38.  @PaulVerhoeven2  so backing the Houthi s, Hezbollah, the Pashtun fighters in Afghanistan, Syrian civil war, Shia insurgents here in Africa etc, is not "causing wars"?! 😕
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  39.  @mr.takethingstooseriously  yeah, I can understand. Honestly, my personal view of Igbo political positioning in Nigeria is that while individual Igbos thrive here in political positions and economically as a group with your entrepreneurship skills, you guys need to do more collaboration to gain more political weight, like getting the presidency. Obi came close but his big mistake was abandoning the only established party he was in that had the clout and resources to help him win. He also unintentionally made his campaign more tribalist than nationalist. What makes the south west and north east (APC) win is that they have this collaboration, despite all the growing hardships and resentment they face. I hear many people say Obi should have been offered the ticket by PDP but he simply didn't have the clout to win on his own, especially in the North and South west, and he needed Atiku. Same with Tinubu. He only won because he supported Buhari and worked his way in APC. Obi should have done the same. This is how politics is played, with collaboration and compromise and some waiting. As it stands, Obi has popularity but Atiku is the only real opposition now.
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  40.  @Bushmaster17  okay. Have they actually affected Israeli ports or shipping? Seems like mostly Egypt and other Arab countries are being affected. Not very competent
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  41. @faisal0280  simple: Afghanistan development was largely limited to Kabul and other urban areas. Further development and consolidation was hindered by the geography and disparate disunited cultures. The corruption of the Afghan authorities didn't help either. Iraq was a mistake due to the desire for nation building there. Should have simply been limited to removing Saddam and installing a monarchy or working with a friendly Arab power to stabilize/reform the country. Finally, look at Syria and Afghanistan pull-outs by Russia and America. When America left Afghanistan, many people tried to flee with them while when Russia left Syria, many people cheered.
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  42. @SuperDrake85  many good and true points you raise, friend. But as for Turkey, I really don't see them making headway into sub-Saharan Africa as they are more inclined towards the Mediterranean, North Africa and the Middle East (at least the Levant and Mesopotamia). Your observations on Nigeria make sense a d my government has been ramping up military reforms and improvements mainly to tackle internal insecurity, and safeguard our coasts and land trade routes. However, more needs to be done and we are also still involved in diplomatic ties with the West (we recently had drills with France, the UK and America. So France is still present here but taking a different approach to diplomacy with us in Africa after the fallout in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso) mainly because I think Trump and the USA aim to pull back on their massive Navy presence and simply ally with pro-western regional powers (like my country) who can potentially fill that vacuum. I do hope we don't miss this opportunity, as you point out. It can be very beneficial for us and others in the region because stability and good diplomatic ties with others, especially the West (for all their flaws), is something we need here in Africa. As for China, the only thing they are interested in here in Africa is debt diplomacy, and extraction without any serious long term geopolitical or strategic aims. We trade with them because of the economic benefits and affordability but we also know of their negative impacts like illegal fishing off our coasts, illegal mining here in Nigeria and much of Africa, terrible loans with massive interests and some really useless infrastructure projects.
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  43. @jackharle1251  workable?! Russian backed Juntas in the Sahel have made things worse. Insecurity and economic hardships are increasing. Their gold mines are being controlled by Russia. Civil liberties are being removed. Criticize the Juntas and either jail, forced conscription or worse happens. No, most of us in Africa prefer democracy and capitalism mainly cause that's what has been shown to actually improve things here.
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  44. A lot of people like to think Libya was ruined by NATO and France and USA but truth is that he did most of it to himself. He constantly oppressed several trines and political opponents, economically mismanaged parts of his country and more. This led to to the revolution that eventually ended him. France and NATO didn't create the revolution. He did.
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  45.  @spicychad55  you are right that the British did that, as well as the French. The difference is that the British also left things like democratic institutions, civic-nationalism, capitalism, rule of law and human rights. All these served to ensure some stability and national cohesion after colonialism ended. That is why my country has only had one civil war and has better national unity, despite our multiple tribes, compared to Ethiopia that have had multiple civil wars and ethnic hatred despite no colonialism.
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  46. I thought the tariff bluster was meant to be a negotiation tactic😕 This just seems normal. Threaten tariffs then negotiate with the countries a d get good concessions for both sides
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  47. Geopolitics is so weird sometimes😂 I mean, my country, Nigeria, is also a supporter of Israel and given our Christian-Muslim make up, that would seem surprising.
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  48. Very good analysis, friend
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  49. The Middle East has always been, and will ALWAYS be a hotbed of instability, long before Israel (modern state) existed. The people in that region are more focused on fighting each other and are largely incompetent and this causes them to not be so significant on geopolitical front and just harms their own region. The resources (oil) and routes (silk road) are no longer as significant as they once were and it has been increasingly bypassed by other areas by this instability and incompetence.
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  50. I assume you haven't seen his videos on Japan, Korea, and others? He also calls Russia incompetent. Please take your race-baiting and shove it!
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