Comments by "N Velsen" (@nvelsen1975) on "Anders Puck Nielsen" channel.

  1. No! Don't talk about peace by christmas! Historically that's when wars drag on for 4-6 years. 😉
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  2. Russian state media have repeatedly argued the Vistula Canal (allows one Polish port to reach the sea without going through occupied Königsberg) as a 'direct threat to Russia' with Sputnik argueing it was a threat 'because it contributed to Polish sovereignty'. So what Russia considers an attack can be literally anything positive for you, because Russia regards you as only an 'inferior' in dire need of subjugation.
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  3. Knowing British cuisine, that's one piece of Russian news that I instantly believed.
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  4. There's a bit of a meme saying Russia's economy was the size of the Benelux countries. Now it may be closer to the poor southern part of Belgium.
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  5. Yes we have ignored it. And I've had my nose rubbed in it. Ex-customer of my company used to be broke to the point that he was on benefits in 2013. I know this since he had to hand over his full financial records as part of a government background check. He made news headlines in 2014 when he campaigned against the Association Treaty with Ukraine, specifically using toiletpaper rolls with slogans on it. He collaborated with the pro-Russian gossipblogger and alround POS human being Jan Roos. Now since 2013 he has acquired real estate totaling 38 properties and is making a comfortable living ruthlessly exploiting tenants. My jobs was to clean that up and make it according to regulations, something he kept going back on. Not an easy enforcement. Then after the 2022 'official invasion' he's back to Russian campaigning and came to our office to talk about what we could do 'about government corruption' (destabilisation through undermining trust in the democratic government). By then I was aware of his pro-Russian involvement. I volunteered back in early march, but Ukrainians rejected my application, so that's where I stand. Let's just say things got a bit heated, police attended and he's now very squarely an ex-customer, his records were handed over to the intelligence agencies as I can't abide traitors. Not they're going to do a damn thing about Russia's infiltration, but at least they have records to prove you can make millions being a Russian infiltrator.
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  6. I bet he doesn't even have a license for those shrubs.
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  7. "I demand at least 500.000 Mexican volunteers to the Ukrainian army before agreeing to a vote! They're after all good at invading things so this is totally reasonable of me!" - speaker Johnson, probably
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  8.  @miriamweller812  It struck a symbolic part of a symbolic target while doing no damage, exactly like Russia would want for a message of "We are under threat, support Putin and enlist today!". Also like Eddy said, it was remote-detonated on command. Contact detonation against a thin target is nearly undoable; you'd see the drone smash into the flagpole first, disintegrate, and only then would anything touch a contact detonator. Also Ukraine has been complaining about lacking heightmaps for Russia, so they can't make drones fly low (beneath detection) without them flying into trees, random buildings and powerlines. How would Ukraine go from "We can't, at all", to "Perfect strike at the central symbol of the Kremlin"
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  9.  @petermagnus9919  Uhm, you're aware India, which invaded China six times, does have nuclear weapons? Wth would China have against South Korea and Japan? No trade routes go in that direction, unlike in the southern direction where the Philipines and Indonesia (a country that perpetrated multiple genocides against Chinese) can threaten trade routes. As for China's position, China is in camp China. China's position is "Don't invade other countries" and it always has been. Putin recruiting Trump was a masterstroke that brought Beijing much closer to Moscow, but still, Russia invaded China numerous times last time being 1969. Russia is the agressive and unreliable neighbour where there are economic opportunities to be had, nothing more. Putin asked for Chinese weapons. He didn't get any. Yet pretty early on China sent a couple million of civilian aid to Ukraine. The famous 'Wolf warrior tweet' further shows that Beijing feels Putin made them lose face (a huge deal in Chinese culture) and that's not something that's forgiven easily.
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  10.  @sixmillionaccountssilenced6721  Ah, because Hamas fanboys are a very reliable source of information of course.... 😆
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  11.  @tomk3732  That ten-to-one number has become vastly outdated with Russian production not keeping up and logistical problems. The detected fires (from space) suggest that currently (11-7) Ukraine is smashing up the Cherson region that's still controlled by the Russians, and the Russians are bombing Krivoy Rih and Osokarivka (across the Dnipro basin)
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  12. I doubt it. That means the same logistical problems that brought Russia down, would hinder the Ukrainians. It makes more sense to let the river be the frontline for the winter and push towards Melitopol. One of the prizes there is Enerhodar, which would deny Russia the ability to stage a nuclear incident that they've threatened several times as well as restore Ukrainian control over power generation. If the coastal road is within Ukrainian artillery reach (still takes at least a 45 kilometer push at the two thinnest points of the Russian line, so not easy) it would force Russia to exhaustingly ship all supplies for the entire pocket by smaller trains or by ships that need to be slowly loaded and unloaded. Most of the occupation zone including Crimea, would be choked that way.
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  13.  @ThePandafriend  That's a valid point, but Russian prison recruitment is already becoming a problem. Because the remaining inmates have by now all heard the rumours of 2 hour life expectancies and attacks that take 70-99% casualties. Prison sucks, being in a suicide squad sucks more. Plus having taken 100K prisoners out of the system, at some point Russia will run out. Pre-war Russia claimed to have had 439K inmates of which 93% are male and 6% are foreigners. That's 381K max recruitable (and thus over 26% killed already) if we make unrealistic assumptions like all of them will sign up.... The reality is not all of them are fit for service and some 24% were suspects not yet convicted (who won't sign up) and most of them are in there for relatively minor crimes (who won't sign up because they'll be out soon). Then it gets further complicated because the 'people who don't matter' are also not 100% of prisoners. Some of them have friends, family, money. Their death would shake Russia a lot more than some mentally ill serial rapist only known by his mother, being used as a cannon fodder. It could well be that Russian prison recruitment is already over.
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  14. One thing to consider is cold makes it miserable to be in the field. But one side is in the field to ensure the survival of their country and their people as an ethnic group, the country's liberation and their freedom. The other side is fighting for 900 dollars a month which most of the time isn't even paid out in full. If everybody takes a morale hit from the weather, that will favour the Ukrainians. It's not all sunshine and rainbows though, harder weather means people will need things to survive and be comfortable. For occupied parts of Ukraine that means relying on the Russian occupational forces. That is inevitably going to inspire some less hostility, perhaps even loyalty, in some people.
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  15. Here in the Netherlands an entirely political generation was formed by the MH17 terrorist strike by Russia. Apart from those parties being in power, there's several hawks in the opposition too. On top of this there were several Russian hybrid warfare attacks here domestically that those in the know are aware of but aren't media fodder. But those in the know stay working for decades; Our PM Schoof is one of them in fact. Even if you assume everybody who's suspected of being pro-Russia would instantly go full putinist mode in case of a war by Russia, they still don't have even a large minority in parliament. There WILL be a Dutch response.
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  16. Can you name at least 5 strikes AIMED AT civilian targets in Gaza that Israel carried out? For obvious reasons strikes against Hamas barracks and weapons depots with human shields living in the same building are not allowed as an answer. Those are military targets. Also how come the amount of Palestinians is increasing? Weird genocide if the number of supposed victims isn't reducing.... And why is it ALWAYS Hamas that escalates the situation and never Israel? Wouldn't you want to be on the offensive if you're after genocide?
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  17. Uhm, at the start, Ukraine had stocks of Russian-calibre ammuntion, such as 152 mm artillery shells. One of the major problems Ukraine has is that Russian sent terrorists to destroy ammunition stocks throughout eastern Europe in a 2014-2021 terrorism campaign where Russian terrorists struck in Moldova and Bulgaria. So now most of their (Soviet) artillery is running out shells. The western artillery Ukraine has is advanced and better than what Russia has, but lower in numbers and uses the 155 mm. To my knowledge it's not possible to re-bore a 152 mm barrel into a 155 mm and fire NATO standard shells with it. This transition from Russian gear to NATO gear is still ongoing for Ukraine and greatly complicates their logistics situation.
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  18.  @AlexP-mi2bc  Uhm, no. It's literally illegal to trade with Putin, and basically nobody complained.
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  19. I would rather watch something less predictable than Putin being interviewed, like, say, the North Korean elections. 😉
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  20.  @polarvortex3294  Where on earth do you get your information? What you said was a thing in february and march, but not after that. Ukraine actually had too many volunteers, they couldn't train and arm them all.
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  21. Not entirely. There have been fights with a lot weirder rules. Actually quite a lot of them. The UN imposed a mandate on the Dutch 'fighting' in Srebrenica that involved them not being allowed to fire even one shot. ....from their Uzi and FN minimes, heaviest weapons they had. ....Against Serbo-Russian forces with T55 tanks supported by artillery. This 'only cuddling and stern warning allowed'-approach, plus a French betrayal in not sending airstrikes of course didn't exactly work out, resulting in the Srebrenica Genocide. And our Afghanistan mandate only allowed defensive fighting. So how do you secure a valley against swarming insurgents with rules that dumb? Well you put down an OP right at the mouth of the valley and basically put up a big sign saying "Please shoot at me before proceeding". ...Which the insurgents invariably obliged us in ...After which we could 'defensively' hunt them down and deal with them, after they all they'd started it and we're just 'defending' 😆
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  22.  @peterkratoska4524  While I wish your optimism was correct, about half of Russia's 'sovereign wealth fund' is gone only after 2 years of war. Extrapolating they might be able to afford this pace until 2026, and then some more by going full Soviet mode on their economy.
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  23. As someone who was regularly hired to work along civil servants, that was very recognizeable. 😂
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  24.  @dpelpal  No wonder India and Russia get along so well.
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  25.  @lancerevo9747  Escalate further than Russia's current total war of national extermination you mean? 😆 Russia can't escalate further, because Russia is always in a state of total neglect of any restraint. The concept of controlling Russian escalation is weird and impossible.
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  26.  @evgeniya7853  You seem to have forgotten WW2 was going on. You know, that war where you allied yourself with the nazis and Japan, invaded Poland and China together. Those nukes saved 10 million lives minimum. 10 million, that's about 1/4th of the death toll of Russia's occupation of Europe 1940-1989.
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  27. So you're saying it's not about them having weapons and shooting at IDF troops, but it's over ethnicity? Are you under the influence of drugs? 😆
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  28. Uhm, do you keep up with the frontline developments? Ukraine is taking ground all over through relatively small leapfrog advances that allow them to then bring up the AA umbrella behind them. Sure, deeply penetrating armoured thrusts and air-based 'rollover' offensives are impossible due to Russian airpower, which is to say helicopters. But what's the value of that fact if there are angry infantrymen tossing grenades into your trench? And if you escape, tomorrow they'll be tossing grenades into your next trench. Besides of that, a scenario of Ukrainian air superiority is unlikely to the extreme. Yes, with AMRAAMS and better radars like in the F16 Ukraine will be able to match or (if they match western performance levels so quickly) roflstomp Russian combat air patrols. All Russia will be able to do is toss long range anti-Awacs missiles at them and pray. This is true. Yet, that doesn't change Russian (or more accurately Soviet) superlative GBAD assets assure a stalemate in the air. Unless Ukraine finds a bunch of F35's in a shed somewhere (and I hope they do) there is not going to be a Yugoslavia or Desert Storm scenario of Ukraine's airforce walking over the Russian GBAD and airforce at the same time to establish air superiority. Knowing that an air stalemate is the best possible, everything on top of a stalemate is wasted effort.
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  29. The dictator of Belarus has distanced himself from Putin a bit now and recently crushed an uprising against his regime before the war started; there won't be another so soon. Chechnya has been thoroughly purged with Kadyrov's death camps snuffing out anyone who might resist and his squads of goons (sometimes called the Tiktok Army) roaming the countryside. Chechnya used to have only 3 million people. After the purges and Russian rule probably a lot less. They can't resist through sheer lack of numbers. You might as well expect Prussia to rise up despite the Russians not leaving a single civilised soul alive and living there in 70 years of purges. It would however be quite curious if Japan took a plunge and liberated its northern islands. Or maybe Xi Jinping decides a good way to draw attention away from economic hiccups is to liberate northern Manchuria (even though that is even more thoroughly purged and is basically just wasteland). I mean at this point the Russian army can't even begin to resist the PLA if the two fought.
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  30. Anders is about facts, not the hysterical terrorist propaganda that you prefer. 😃
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  31. For all the tragedy this excellent analysis foreshadowed, I find it comforting to realise most of that 'suffering for Russia's influence sphere' has landed in Russia itself. Make no mistake: This war is a huge tragedy for Ukraine, but in absolute size it's much worse for Putin's slaves so far.
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  32. They didn't cover it, but recently some guy in China who runs a factory of mocking toilet paper (where they print faces of politicians etc on toilet paper) decided to advertise them selling toilet paper with Zelensky's face on it. So you'd think this is their job, they don't pick sides, if there's a market for it, they'll provide, right? Well, pretty soon, outraged reviews of Ruzzians began appearing who purchased it, only to be sent toilet paper with Putin's face on it. The guy then made a compilation of outraged e-mails and angry reviews by Ruzzians and posted that in a few places. It's going around in WeChat groups mainly right now.
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  33. Putin miscalculated Erdogan's motives badly. Erdogan brokered the grain deal, it's 'his' deal. Putin pulling out causes Erdogan to lose face and that's what prickly dictators hate to have done to them. Backgrounds: Turkey and Turkish interests are harmed greatly by Russia using famine as a weapon. The Turkish economy is in trouble thanks to Erdogan, he could use a distraction. The Turkish navy is more than capable of holdings its own against the Black Sea fleet. Putin misunderstood that he had no path out of this. When Turkish grain ships broke the Russian blockade, he could back down or attack. If he attacked the Turkish navy would have a reason to come defend their ships. Then Putin can back down or attack. In a shooting war between the Turkish and Russian navy, the Russians would likely lose, and if they win it's a casus belli, the Montreux treaty wouldn't stop NATO ships any longer as Turkey has now picked a side. All of those scenarios end in a loss for Putin and a win for Erdogan. So obviously Turkey was going to enforce their grain deal.
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  34. Ah, multiple experts... And you couldn't even name a single one of them. 😆 You're afraid that when you do, it'll turn out you were quoting Pallywood propagandists. Take your own advice: Remain silent.
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  35. That's still a 70 km push through rough terrain against a shortening front, staffed with more and more Russian cannon fodder, that over time will be somewhat trained.
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  36.  @user-yq2wk6yg8s  Not just a low price, it's basically just above or just below the price where Russia can make a profit, but it's not technologically possible to just pause oil wells, and you can't just break a trade link and restart it. The more worrying part is that France, Spain and a couple others still happily buy Russian LNG at market value argueing 'we have an existing contract' as to why they don't carry out the sanctions. It's an obvious fake: Law goes above contract everybody knows that.
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  37. "Belgium could conquer Belarus" Ouch, anyone who's seen that failed buffer state's 'military' knows that that is quite the insult. 😆
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  38. @T.J. Kong Naah, we'd now be seeing a very ugly guerilla war unfolding. The bodycount would be much higher, the result the same as now. Which is exactly why we need to further expand lend-lease to Ukraine. Russia has always constantly invaded its neighbours for 200 years and won't stop unless it's stopped.
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  39. The main disconnect between those advocating for peace now despite everything, and the diplomats, is that 99% of those people are Russian bots, covidiot Russian-brainwashed rioters and paid Russian agitators. I've not seen anyone serious even consider the idea, nevermind find a solution to the fact that Russia will simply use peace to rearm, expand their army and they'll invade again late 2023 or in 2024.
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  40.  @arturobianco848  Well there is an air stalemate. Both sides only engage in 'inevitable' (as in: no amount of AA would stop it) use of air assets like lobbing unguided rockets and using drones. Basically the only form of air warfare in the war right now that's actually subject to any tactical consideration is that Russia has found to way to have the limited number of surviving Ka-52s fire missiles at advancing vehicles from their maximum range, creating a defensive rapid-response force to a specific type of attack that way. All the rest is basically mutually denied.
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  41. That's why Arjan Lubach held a referendum that showed 100% of Russians wanted to be annexed by the Netherlands. So as per the 1st of october, Russia no longer exists. Putin needs to stop occupying such a huge part of the Netherlands! 😆
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  42. Well, the march strike against the International Legion recruits was so succesful because it was in a Soviet era system and to top it of some absolute *** had put it on Google Maps and people discussed it openly on social media for people who were going, any of who could've been an infiltrator.
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  43.  @Rokaize  Putin's had 11 oligarchs and business leaders murdered this year, among them only 1 exile. Those are record levels for Russia. He's terrified that some of the elite conspire against him. Which is rather dangerous for Putin, both their dissatisfaction and having to opress them with murder, because Putin's regime is built on the oligarchs.
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  44. Well, at least you guys now have decisively defeated Japan in the 'Weirdest country on the planet' competition. 😉
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  45.  @biornr.4031  Why not just admit you're lying? It's more open and honest.
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  46. It's mostly a manipulation: Bachmut is a Russian prestige target. They'll be desperate not to lose it, thus allowing Ukraine the initiative. That's why they attacked the flanks instead of getting into even more stalingrad-sh*it and attacking back into the city itself. Currently it's apparently being staffed partially by forced-conscripts from the occupied regions. Yes, those same forced-conscripts whose lines allowed the Kharkiv counteroffensive to progress at such blinding speed. And you can bet the occupied regions haven't seen a lot of men growing into a military age or migrating there so Russian press-gangs can snatch them up. These are guys aged 40+ and up with some squads made up of guys in their 50's and 60's and since then the situation's gotten worse for them.
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  47. Thing is: That means you're weighing another town, against all the lives lost in the weeks where Russia had the place surrounded and could shell Bachmut at their leisure with little to no risk of counter-battery. That's a lot of unknowns and assumptions. I don't think you can conclude either way since: -Which other town? We don't know. -What's it's value, even if we know the town we don't rightly know -Who would've been saved fighting under better conditions elsewhere? What's their military value? We don't know. -How much artillery would Russia have lost extra not having a few weeks of free shots at Bachmut? We can only guesstimate roughly. -Would Russia have paused if Bachmut was given up eventually, or pressed on during winter? We don't know. But if Russia pressed on anyway it would've invalidated Anders' 'Bachmut or have to go offensive' argument. -Would Wagner have been put to the torch elsewhere and still revolted? We don't know. -If Wagner did, would they have captured Gerasimov and Shoigu like they intended? We don't know. -If Wagner didn't, would they have bowed out of the war after Bachmut and just take their surplus manpower to Niger? We don't know. Now I wasn't bad at mathematics in school, but I don't think it's possible to solve an equation with 10+ unknowns in it.
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  48. The Russian propaganda has openly stated things like 'Russia is only sending 15% of its army' and 'They're only sending the oldest gear first' and 'Russia is so ineffective because they want to be humanitarian and not risk collatoral damage'. They have been pushing the 'one arm behind the back' myth quite a lot.
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  49.  @letsgetsteve  Jack Thelad is a Russian bot account. He was screaming about "Ukronazis" elsewhere. But more to the military point, all NATO-supplied artillery Ukraine has, has a significant range advantage of Russian artillery, anywhere from 2-30 kilometers of advantage. (only counting shell artillery) High ground to shoot further is not something Ukraine needs on a tactical level. Especially using Excalibur shells there's already plentiful footage of concentrations of Russians going "Look at us chilling way behind the frontlines" and kaboom, pinpoint destruction. Plus because the Russians are starting to lack materials and definately lack tactics, Ukrainian gunners have started using long range drone recon to pull off devastating strikes with 1-2 shells. They spend a decent amount of time scouting and working out the ballistics before firing 1-2 shells which typically have a devastating effect. If you want to see an example, Funker530 is currently having a single-shell attack that destroys a Rapira AT gun (and presumably most of the crew) on its 'latest' page.
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  50. 4:01 I feel the need to add 'why' sea clutter can't be fixed Because the only fix on maritime radars for clutter is to tell the radar 'ignore any object below X cm tall above the sea level'. Which means that against maritime drones that are really low in the water, you have to choose between: A - Seeing the drone and ALL the waves, good luck picking which of the 300 objects is the right target B - Not the waves or the drone, good luck finding the drone Source: I work volunteer maritime rescue for Dutch KNRM and have to operate such radars (civilian ones) sometimes in bad weather. Disclaimer: The navies of today may be sitting on more advanced solutions by now, I wouldn't know, I was army 2006-2010 then reservist 2010-2017, never navy
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