Comments by "dlukton" (@dlukton) on "CNBC Television" channel.

  1.  @pierrern181  I don't know if there really is a solid consensus for a pullback to occur during August & September; but in any case, I've got some "dry powder" that I plan to deploy in October.
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  2. The tax burden is quite high enough as it is.
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  3. Good to see that at least SOME of the people in California have functioning brain cells (i.e., they're demonstrating that by moving out).
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  4.  @oliviavaughn4428  I can probably run circles around you when it comes to trading futures.
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  5. OK; but bear in mind that the inflation rate pertains to "rate of change" in prices; and NOT the actual price level.
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  6. A lot of people say that; but bear in mind that the Fed is.... to a large extent..... under the control of politicians; and politicians can be very fickle.
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  7.  @59jm24  The issue here is not about what's legal or illegal; the issue that I raised is that of the potential impact of future recruitment, in the event that the military gives a "dishonorable discharge" to each person who refused the vaccine. You probably don't care if there's an impact on recruitment or not; but not everyone shares your view.
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  8.  @rosiebrooks7685  Of course, it'll be a question of what the senate will approve. But the political power of the Dems arises mostly from the "big blue" cities; and so the Dems would like to send as much money as possible to those cities. (And municipal pensions are in deep, deep trouble).
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  9.  @Assface2k  Ripple is the company that issues XRP; and Ripple is also partly responsible for managing XRP.
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  10.  @dontswin  OK, then. Let's have a $5.00 bet... payable in bitcoin.
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  11.  @BlizzyBlake1185  No disagreement from me. But there could be a large rally also. For example, the DJIA rallied for about six months after the crash of 1929 (December '29 to May '30).
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  12. Yes; and I think an important question here is: how could the bill be written so as to maximize the odds of the courts finding it to be Constitutional? Had that question been posed, she wouldn't have been able to wriggle out of it so easily. My guess is that any judge appointed by Obama will say that a tax on unrealized capital gains is Constitutional (no matter how the law is worded); whereas the Supreme Court.... IF IT'S WILLING TO TAKE THE CASE AT ALL.... will say that it is not Constitutional. The nightmare scenario is that the SCOTUS refuses to even hear the case.
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  13.  @pakpala1  they would do just that.
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  14. Governor Cuomo was worried about a big budget deficit BEFORE the coronavirus came along; what's gonna happen NOW...?
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  15. @UnclePlaysBadly  that's not what I'm saying at all.
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  16. @UnclePlaysBadly  people who say that tariffs are NECESSARILY bad.... regardless of how they're applied.... are indeed idiots.
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  17. "recession" versus "no recession (yet)" isn't the issue so much as a "decline in earnings" versus "no decline in earnings".
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  18.  @Voltroc  OK; I didn't know that. If Gottlieb is opposed to a vaccine mandate (by the Feds), he's not such a bad guy after all.
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  19. "Quantitative Easing, deficit spending, IS WELFARE for shareholders." That hasn't really been true YET, especially on an after-tax, after-benefit basis, since those who lack capital haven't really been made worse off (again, on an after-tax, after-benefit basis). If we get a nasty bout of inflation, then perhaps your characterization will become accurate at that point
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  20.  @jaemoon3593  Yes, the Fed has induced a bubble in stocks, and in real estate. But I think that most of the damage of Fed policy lies in the future rather than the present.
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  21. J.P. Morgan in 1912: “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” Jack Mallers in 2022: "There's bitcoin, and there's everything else".
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  22. The more that the CNBC guys (and gals) tell us to ignore the inverted yield curve, the more that I think that it's going to matter. I say: recession starts in about a year... but the S&P 500 could still rally 4-7% (from here) before the recession starts.
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  23.  @TheMagicJIZZ  I could live without the tax burdens that exist in any of Denmark, France, and Sweden.
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  24. The Fed won't cut unless the stock market declines FIRST. The S&P would probably have to decline AT LEAST as far down as 2600 before the Fed would cut; possibly the Fed would insist on a decline to 2400 before they'd begin to take pity on investors.
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  25. There's something else going on beyond just "fighting inflation"; I think that the Fed is being used as a tool of foreign policy. The strong dollar probably hurts Russia somewhat, and maybe also China.
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  26. China will (if they're smart) wait to see if Trump gets a second term.
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  27. OTOH, the Chinese will have a lot more "leverage" in negotiations BEFORE the 2020 election than they'll have afterwards.
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  28. Wow. Tom Friedman saying something supportive of Trump. Hard to believe.
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  29. "compete like the rest of the world" Although, most of the oil around the world is under the control of governments.
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  30. A number of Democrats have proposed taxing unrealized capital gains. A totally awful idea, but I think it would nevertheless be Constitutionally-compliant (unlike a federal tax on assets per se).
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  31.  @hello69468  Article written by Kyle Bass... published today... that is very relevant: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-11/kyle-bass-warns-trump-dont-take-easy-way-out-china
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  32.  @houfame  Yes, China has the upper hand... from a political perspective.... even if Trump has the upper hand from an economic perspective. Certainly, the Chinese won't give Trump anything substantial prior to the 2020 election; they'll wait first to see if he can win a 2nd term.
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  33.  Jack SIn  Better to fight back than to merely blame; perhaps we can agree on that.
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  34.  @Withnail1969  They're not "happy" to be forced to give up their technology; but they do it in order to get permission to operate in the country. In any case, it's not in the long-run interest of the US, even putting aside the fact that some of that technology can be adapted for military use
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  35.  @Withnail1969  You've disregarded two of my points: (a) what is in the long-run interest of the United States from an economic perspective, and (b) to what extent can the technology that the Chinese steal be adapted for the Chinese military? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Also, I would turn the question around. If it's really true that the Chinese aren't forcing US companies to partner with them, why would the Chinese not then just agree to refrain from doing that which you believe they're not doing to begin with? And if it's really true that the Chinese aren't forcing US companies to divulge technology secrets to the companies that they partner with, why would the Chinese not then just agree to refrain from doing that which you believe they're not doing to begin with? Seems to me, the whole trade war could be ended in about 5 minutes.... if what you're saying were really true.
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  36.  @Withnail1969  Allowing US companies to give away military secrets is in the long run interest of the US....? I think not. And if you believe there is anything at all "free market" about the way that China treats US companies, I would say that you're misinformed.
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  37. As Garlinghouse said, most of the XRP is traded on exchanges OUTSIDE THE US. So FINE, if some judge wants to declare XRP to be a security, it'll just continue trading on exchanges outside the US. I'm sure the bankers hate XRP; and no doubt Steven Mnuchin hates XRP. But the US government can't shut down XRP.
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  38.  @thoughtsonstocks  Could be that the bankers won't like it because they won't be able to charge fat fees. And looking at it from the perspective of the government, it would seem that XRP will threaten the SWIFT payment system, which the US government uses to badger and coerce foreign governments. So I can't imagine that people in the US government are happy to lose that power.
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