Comments by "rockethead7" (@rockethead7) on "Thunderf00t"
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Well, I think you missed the point of the Starlink video. But, whatever, I can't go that deep in a single comment. As for how well this video will age, well, I must ask if you understand the main point? The main point is that the truck is probably so heavy that Musk doesn't want to reveal its weight, because that will deter purchases, because they won't be able to haul very much cargo. If you need three Tesla trucks to haul the same weight as a single regular diesel truck, the entire concept of saving money is thrown out the window. The secondary point is that if it takes an eternity to charge these trucks, no trucking company will want them, because trucks don't make money if they have to sit there for hours/days just to get charged up.
As for the weight of the barriers, how would we even know how much they weigh? He won't say!!! Jersey style? What? How would we even know? For all we know, they're hollowed out. But, I'm not making that accusation. I figure they probably are "normal." But, to assert that we know how much they weigh is silly. The man has had YEARS to give the weight of the truck. YEARS. And, he refuses to do it. He just won't tell anybody how much that thing weighs, thus he is forcing the world to make estimates like this. Doesn't that mean anything to you? Every other truck manufacturer on the planet will give the exact weight of the truck, down to the pound. But, we can't even get a ballpark figure from Musk.
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Well, you can find anything "hard to believe" if you feel like it. It doesn't change the fact that, as long as Musk refuses to reveal the weight of the truck, everyone must continue to make these estimates based on the known weight of batteries, and approximations of what's shown in the video. Every other manufacturer on Earth publishes the weight of the truck. Musk doesn't. And, like it or not, batteries are darned heavy. From an energy standpoint, it takes about 100x more weight in batteries than you get from standard gasoline or diesel. Literally. Not kidding. You can look this up. A lithium ion battery carries about 1/100th of the energy per pound than gasoline.
You have also missed the point about driving slow. (Maybe Thunderf00t missed it also.) The point is that they probably had to really crack down in order to get 500 miles out of it. It's like when you're trying to get maximum mileage out of your car, so you turn off the AC, turn off all accessories, never exceed 45, feather the gas pedal lightly, test it when the wind is to your back, try drafting other cars, etc. Basically, the point is, they had to milk it.
As for the stock price not matching the actual value of the company, you can say that again. This is what a cult is all about. Tesla has existed how long? 50 quarters or so? How many were profitable? Like 4 of them? Can you see the next tulip?
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I completely agree in principle, that if he's manufacturing the numbers, and artificially making them too low just for YouTube hits, that's a bad thing. But, let's face reality here, with the exception of Thunderf00t's butchery of how copyright laws work, he's got a mighty strong track record of being correct. Musk's Hyperloop WAS an amazing joke that could never succeed. Promises to make intercontinental spacecraft to replace airliners (for the same price per ticket) are ridiculous. The robot that's going to revolutionize life as we know it was just a guy in a spandex outfit. The Vegas tunnel is a bad joke, and cannot move the amount of passengers per hour that the city contract said it should. Twitter is worth a tiny fraction of what Musk paid for it (and he had to borrow the money to do it, sooooo, let's see how much those lenders are willing to tolerate). So, if Thunderf00t incorrectly guessed at the weight of the cargo, well, it's bad, but, let's face the facts: Musk isn't exactly providing numbers so that nobody has to guess. Every single truck manufacturer on the planet reveals the weight of the truck, and the price of the truck, as well as every other stat. Not Tesla, though. Nope, they're taking orders, and making promises, without revealing the most important factors. If Thunderf00t guessed wrong, it's still Musk's fault for even making people guess in the first place.
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And, it's hard to believe that a company like Walgreens would invest in a fake blood testing machine. But, they did. And, it's hard to believe that tons of prestigious investment firms would give billions to Bernie Madoff, who never made a single trade with any of that money. But, they did.
I wonder how Pepsi feels today, by the way. After waiting 5 years instead of 2 years for these trucks, they expected that this December "delivery" event would hand them 15 trucks (with a couple hundred more down the road). As little as 6 weeks ago, they still told the press that they'd get those trucks on December 1. But, nope. They aren't getting them, are they? Tesla is not selling any of them yet. This "delivery" event is nothing of the sort. It's still in prototype stage, and they haven't gotten approval to sell them. And, as Thunderf00t has been saying, I personally think that they don't actually want to sell them anyway, because these trucking companies are in for a real shocker when they find out that they can't charge them quickly, can't go very far, and can't carry very much.
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Sure, if it's real. Funny that the truck that drove the 500 miles wasn't carrying those things. They just showed those things for the few clips. For all we know, they loaded up with a tiny battery pack capable of only about 10 miles, just to take those shots. Then, they load the full battery pack for the other clip of them going 500 miles with a light load. Or, maybe those concrete barriers have been hollowed out, or maybe they're Styrofoam painted to look like concrete. The point is, we already know that Musk uses deceptive practices to accomplish his marketing goals. He's done it time and time again. Why he wasn't imprisoned for the Solar City scam, I'll never understand. And, the same goes for the rest of his nonsense, like Boca Chica, and the fake Hyperloop "vacuum" tunnel (that wasn't a vacuum), and the fake robot doing tasks with jump-cuts and CGI editing. The man cannot be trusted. And, as long as he refuses to reveal the weight of the truck (and the price, for that matter), there's absolutely no reason to trust anything he shows in videos. The proof is in the pudding. Musk doesn't produce pudding. He produces videos about pudding. And, still today, we don't know the weight of the truck, and even Pepsi won't reveal it (undoubtedly they've been contractually obligated to keep it a secret). But, it's awwwwfffulllly telling that they said they're not going to haul any Pepsi for 500 miles. Instead, they're only hauling potato chips for 500 miles. And, if the numbers weren't tragic, why would they be a secret? Why? What possible reason would they have to keep the numbers a secret, unless those numbers were horrible?
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What you might be missing is that Tesla is dropping prices like crazy due to lack of demand. No auto manufacturer is dropping prices more than Tesla. This results in an even bigger drop in resale value than just a "normal" depreciation. Why buy a used one when you can get a new one for the same cost or cheaper? Furthermore, with the Cybertruck, the issue is that it's being introduced at a massively high price, usually over $100K, because the first ones are "foundation" models and have a big upcharge for trivial things, and some are even paying a huge premium. That won't last. And, they're dropping their "full self driving costs" dramatically also, which means if you paid for it at the original pricing, you'll never get that back in trade, because it's far cheaper now. Yes, Tesla is devaluing the trade-in market by all of these practices, and this is well beyond the standard "dealers never give great trade values" argument.
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And, we know those aren't Styrofoam painted to look like concrete, how? I mean, sure, maybe they're real, and weigh what you say. But, the core of the issue is that Musk refuses to reveal the numbers, and leaves people FORCED to guess. And, if Thunderf00t got the numbers wrong, ok, why does that matter that much? Does or doesn't Musk have a massive track record for deceiving people? Does or doesn't Thunderf00t have a pretty darned solid track record for accuracy in every other video? Whose fault is it that Thunderf00t even needs to make guesses like this? Every truck manufacturer on the planet tells people the price of the truck, and the weight of the truck. Not Tesla, though. They refuse to do so. So, whose real fault is it that he's forced to guess?
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Yup. Everyone knows what's needed to stop burning fossil fuels. But, the fundamental problem is that to find a new fuel to replace carbon emitting fuels, you're basically talking about needing to chemically manufacture them (such as hydrogen). You need to pay in money and energy to split water into oxygen and hydrogen ,and this takes 8x more energy than you can ever get back out of the hydrogen. Or, for a more complicated but safe fuel, you have to chemically manufacture it (again, meaning you have to spend a lot of energy and money to do it).
At the moment, the best alternative we have is electric/battery vehicles. But, you're right, it's far too expensive, there's a lack of natural resources, and you just can't use that sort of thing for all applications. Not only is it a problem for large long-haul trucks (i.e. this video), but, it's a major problem for aviation also. They just can't get the batteries light enough to make them viable for aircraft use. A car carrying a few people, where you don't care how much it weighs, ok, you can pull it off. It's terribly expensive, but, it works. But, it's very difficult to scale that up, because of the weight constraints, and the supply of natural resources is restrained (as you pointed out).
So, yes, a radically different battery (which we don't even have any ideas about how to make, or even what to make it from), or some sort of clean burning fuel, would be wonderful. But, they just don't exist yet, and I dare not guess at the odds of actually making them exist.
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Perhaps this is a dumb question, and who knows if you'll ever read this... but... are they saying that the mere fact that the crazy ideas are contained within the video, that even though you are speaking against the crazy ideas, they don't want the crazy ideas to spread? Like, for example, James Randi used to have a huge "problem" in that whenever he aired crazy people with their homeopathy, psychic readings, telepathy, etc., utterly exposing them for the frauds that they are, still, the rule that "any publicity is good publicity" always held true, and the popularity of the people he was debunking kept going UP. Even if the purpose of your video is to tear apart the crazy notions, there will be a subset of viewers that will just believe the stuff you're debunking because they feel like rejecting everything you say. Therefore, by even having the crazy notions within your debunk videos, in some way, to a certain demographic, you end up indirectly promoting it? (Note: I wouldn't agree with YouTube taking down your video for that reason, I still think your video should remain up, but, I'm just asking about a possible "reason" that almost would make sense.)
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