Comments by "rockethead7" (@rockethead7) on "Thunderf00t"
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@CreatureColossus
You opened this thread with a claim. I responded by illustrating why your claim was wrong, and that you have completely misunderstood the main point. You then replied with comments that clearly illustrated that you haven't got the foggiest clue what you're talking about. I tried to spell out to you (via listing many examples of a pattern of deceptive behavior) why you're delusional about what's going on here. And, you didn't want to hear it, and asked me to focus on one main point. But, what you fail to understand is that I wasn't even trying to make one main point. I was responding to YOUR claims. My "main point" (if you could even call it that) was that you have completely misunderstood what's going on here. Nobody is going to be shocked or "pissed" or disappointed if/when Tesla makes full self driving robotic cars. Not me. Not Mason. Nobody. It's inevitable. Auto manufacturers will eventually get to that level. Nobody is claiming otherwise. But, in the meantime, it's quite clear that Musk is selling snake oil, stating that he's perpetually "a year" away from it, to artificially boost car sales and stock price. When he gets up in front of an audience and claims that full self driving robo-taxis are a year away, and if you buy his car now, he'll deliver you a software update next year that will turn your car into a money printing machine, yeah, that's snake oil... because he KNOWS it's not true. And, Mason tried to illustrate many reasons why we know it's not true. Of course, Phil Mason presents very good arguments to illustrate why we know it's not true, but, as he has done many times in the past in his videos, he somehow missed the main reason. The main reason we know Musk is blowing hot air is because the process to certify full level-5 self driving is far longer than a year. He cannot legally put a full self driving robo-taxi on the road until it undergoes a rigorous certification process that lasts far more than a year. He must achieve and certify level 2, then level 3, then level 4, before he can promise people level-5. And, in reality, he can barely even promise level 2 at this point. And, his own legal department, when asked by legislature if they really intend on putting full self driving level-5 cars on the road next year (Musk's claims), Tesla's own legal department said that they have no such plans, and full self driving level-5 isn't even in the works, and they have no intention whatsoever of doing it. Hence, Musk's claim that those were the plans... was A BLATANT LIE to boost sales and stock price. He never said he misspoke. He never published an apology/correction. He just left that claim out there. Yes, I'm sure Tesla (if it still exists a decade or two into the future) will be like every other manufacturer out there, and will be attempting to put full self driving robo-taxis on the road. Nobody is going to pout about this. Nobody is going to be "pissed" when that natural progression finally happens. But, to willfully claim that it's a year away, when it's not even legally possible to do it in a year's time, IS SNAKE OIL SALES!!! And, the mere fact that Musk has now simply re-defined the term "full self driving" to mean merely level-2 automation, declaring that he has achieved it (hoping people will ignore his original robo-taxi claim), is even more ammunition that Musk is selling snake oil. Rather than delivering on the original promise, he has chosen to simply re-define the words to fit something he can deliver, and declares victory.
I then went on to illustrate a tiny fraction of Musk's endless lists of false promises, deceptive claims, pure delusion, and outright fraud (i.e. Solar City). The purpose was to outline to you that Musk's claim for full self driving cars ranks right up there with a long parade of other ridiculous claims Musk has made over the years. I specifically chose a variety of them, to illustrate to you that Musk has pattern of, once again, false promises, deception, delusion, and outright fraud. It would be easy enough to just attribute one "mistake" (making an impossible promise for full level-5 self driving by "next year") to just human error. Fine, he said something that wasn't true. Maybe he just misunderstood things. Maybe he misspoke. Who cares? No harm done, right? But, when you step back and realize that Musk has a very long history of this type of stuff, you will realize that the "full self driving" claim wasn't just a misspeak. It wasn't just a mistaken claim. It fits EXACTLY with his long list of overpromising and underdelivering... and this is DELIBERATE.
Yes, level-5 self driving will be achieved by any/all auto makers eventually. It's not a year away. It cannot even be a year away, because the certification process takes many years. Nobody is going to be "pissed" when this is achieved. People are "pissed" when Musk promises things that he KNOWS cannot be delivered in the timeframe he claims. That's the point here.
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@CreatureColossus
YOU SAID: "Sorry my response got deleted for some reason."
== YouTube's censorship has gone completely off the rails in the past 6-12 months. Stuff gets deleted for absolutely no [valid] reason. I've had stuff deleted, gone back and filtered through everything to find out what YouTube's algorithm balked at, and simply rearranged a couple of harmless words, and it gets through the algorithm and gets posted. Harmless nothing stuff, yet deletes anyway. Pure craziness.
YOU SAID: "The criticism of missed timelines is a valid one. I can understand the frustration."
== Again, you are missing the point if you trivialize this as "missed timelines." These are WILLFUL misrepresentations.
YOU SAID: "In regards to self driving being used to drive up stock price, I'd have to disagree."
== You don't think that Musk saying that he is going to sell you money-printing machines today, and activate them with a software update next years, is going to boost the stock price? Wow.
YOU SAID: "None of the major investment analysts like Jeffries, The Street, or even Cathie Wood are using self driving in their Tesla base-cases."
== Good grief. No "major investment analyst" worth his salt thinks that 1.01 trillion is a reasonable market cap for Tesla. This is outlandish. In order to justify that market cap, Tesla would literally (yes, literally, really literally) need to make over $2 million profit on each vehicle sold. Since the cars don't even cost that much to begin with, um, yeah, they're obviously not earning that kind of profit. So, if any "major investment analyst" says that Tesla is worth its market cap, already, you know they've lost their minds. So, I really don't put any faith whatsoever into anything you have to say about what market analysts say, if you're trying to somehow spin this in favor of Tesla. They make around 200,000 cars per year. And, magically, they're worth 10x or 20x more than every other auto manufacturer on the planet that produces 5 or 10 million cars per year?? That means (if this ridiculous price was justified) that Tesla's value per car sold is approximately 1,200x greater than the value per car sold than any auto maker on Earth. Yeah, you can give some "future value" allowances here, but, let's face reality, it'll be 50+ years before Tesla could ever even approach being worth its current stock value. So, spare me if I ignore your comments about what any "major investment analysts" would ever say.
YOU SAID: "They base their price targets on things like Tesla's margins (above 20%),"
== No, that's gross margin. They had 23% gross margin in the recent few quarters, with 10% net margin. And, sorry, on 200,000 cars per year, that doesn't come anywhere near its current $1T market cap. Again, it's off by a factor of at least 1,000, more like 1,200. And, let's not forget, Tesla didn't make a single dime of profit from 2003 to 2010 (when it was private). It didn't make a single dime of profit from 2010 to 2014, when it then tried to claim its first profits. But, then the FTC slapped them down for illegal accounting practices (cooking the books), and they had to reverse their claims back to losses again. And, they didn't earn a single dime of profit from 2014 to 2019. Their very first profit came in 2020 (when EVERY auto manufacturer benefitted from COVID dynamics). And, in the bigger picture, they're still quite underwater when you look at the billions in losses from 2003 to 2019.
YOU SAID: "growth (also double digits per year), and other factors."
== There's nowhere to go but up. They make a mere 200,00 cars per year. OF COURSE there's growth!! This does not justify a valuation 1,200x greater on a per-car basis than every other auto manufacturer on the planet.
YOU SAID: "Regular investors are also not buying tesla stock because "Daddy Elon" said self driving is around the corner for the nth time."
== Well, today's Musk-cult investors do.
YOU SAID: "Musk's missed timelines are also a meme in the Tesla community after all. The reason people invest in Tesla is because they believe in the mission of Tesla, the products, and the advantages they have in being first movers and having that brand."
== Yes, and they're massively delusional.
YOU SAID: "Also, after all this time, it really doesn't look like competition is coming."
== Pffftt. WHAT? Do you really believe that?
YOU SAID: "A word on viewing businesses in general. Businesses make big claims all the time. Whether its folding phones, the first OLED TVs, or those ridiculous concept cars that we see Mercedes put out."
== What ARE you talking about? Musk nearly went to prison a couple of weeks ago, very narrowly avoiding it, and the judge slapped him down so hard that he said that Musk is PERSONALLY liable for his fraud. This isn't just "making big claims." He is guilty of stock manipulation, and outright fraud. Good grief. You clearly have swallowed every drop of Kool-Aid you could get your hands on.
YOU SAID: "Generating hype is a pretty normal part of it, and plans change, timelines get shifted, and no one is surprised. What people care about is whether or not you actually deliver in the end."
== Sorry, again, this is completely delusional. We're not talking about an aggressive timeline he couldn't meet. We are talking about making a distinct claim (and lots more just like it) that he KNEW was false. And, his own legal department said that the company has NO SUCH PLANS that Musk claimed.
YOU SAID: "Respectfully, I think you're wrong about this one."
== You have lost your mind. That's really all there is to this. Your mind is just plain gone. Flushed down the toilet. It's never coming back.
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