Comments by "Theodore Shulman" (@ColonelFredPuntridge) on "Dr. John Campbell"
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Brand new report in WSJ by Sarah Toy Friday March 18 2022 7AM
Ivermectin Didn’t Reduce Covid-19 Hospitalizations in Largest Trial to Date
Patients who got the antiparasitic drug didn’t fare better than those who received a placebo
MY SUMMARY: The study looked at patients who had COVID symptoms and a positive rapid-test, and a co-morbidity like diabetes, cardiovascular problems, lung disease, or high blood pressure. It divided the patients randomly into two groups and gave one Ivermectin and the other placebo. Then tracked admission rates, length of hospitalization, ventilator use, death rates, how fast they got better, and how fast they cleared the virus.
They did several analyses, including one which only included patients who said they followed the prescribed instructions carefully.
RESULT: No observable clinical benefit.
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The argument that we should test the Paxlovid on patients who have been immunized (either by vaccination or by infection and natural immune-response), is good. By all means, test it on them! BUT it's reasonable to assume, until large tests are complete, that Paxlovid will benefit immunized patients in the same way it benefits those who have not been immunized. I'll explain why:
Paxlovid is a combination of two medications. One of the two is Ritonovir, which doesn't do much by itself, but is useful for prolonging the lifetime of other protease-inhibitors. You can think of Ritonovir as like the linemen on a football team whose purpose is blocking the other team, to protect the guy who has the ball from being tackled by them. The other drug in Paxlovid is Nirmatrelvir, which is like the guy who has the ball. It inhibits the virus' protease enzymes which are essential to make the proteins it needs in order to control the host cell. Without those protease enzymes, the virus can't do its bad viral thing to you.
The point here is, both these effects - the Nirmatrelvir inhibiting the virus' essential protease enzymes, plus the Ritonovir preventing the host from removing the Nirmatrelvir - both these effects are completely separate from antibodies and what antibodies do. In fact, as far as anyone knows, they are separate from the entire immune system. They inhibit the viral protease enzymes in the presence of antibodies, and they inhibit the viral protease enzymes in the absence of antibodies. Given what we know about how well they work for patients who have not been immunized, and given that their mechanisms of action have nothing to do with immunity or antibodies, it's reasonable to predict that they will also work well to protect patients who HAVE been immunized.
This is not proof - of course, only big tests on previously-immunized patients would prove the benefit in those patients. But it IS a good reason to provide the Paxlovid unless and until large studies or surveys prove that it DOESN'T help those patients. The fact that Paxlovid has such great results on patients who have not been immunized, plus the fact that the mechanism of action is independent of antibodies, shifts the burden of proof to the skeptics, at least largely.
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The nearly-final question was why don't we waive the vaccination-mandates for people who already have natural immunity. One obvious problem is that testing for natural immunity is expensive! Even testing for antibody-titers would cost non-trivial amounts of money, and that is a very easy test to run. (Even I can run it.). Add in the cost of counting patients' memory B-cells, memory T-4s, and memory T-8s, and remember: you're not just counting total memory B, T4, and T8 cells; you have to count the number of memory B-cells which target the virus, and the number of memory T4 cells which target the virus, and the number of T8 cells which target the virus. (It's nice for a patient if he has a large number of memory T8 cells which "remember" that he once was exposed to, say, rabies, or Yersinia Pestis, but those cells will not also protect him from SARS-CoV-2, so you need to count only the cells which "remember" his previous exposure to SARS-CoV--2 which gave him the natural immunity.) Counting these cells is much more expensive than antibody-titering (which is why so many scientists rely on antibody-titering even though it doesn't always correlate with total immunity.)
I suppose we could have a policy of waiving vaccination requirements for people who have natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2, but, if you want to apply for the waiver, then you have to pony up the money for the tests. Which will certainly cost more - A LOT more - than just taking the damm vaccine!
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First of all, no, it's still an hypothesis, not "a bit more". Secondly, Dr. Campbell is speaking as if it went without saying that the only possible reason to redact information about the virus were something embarrassing in it. But there might well be something dangerous in it. Everyone is quite sure that this virus SARS-CoV-2 was not purposely engineered or released as a bio-weapon, but the next one, or the one after that, could well be. It's getting easier and easier to engineer new variants (if anyone wanted to do that) and there could be some information which the Brits don't want to release, for very good reason.
The fact that the virus stores its genetic information in the form of viral RNA rather than DNA, and the unusually large size of the RNA (30 kilobases), were obstacles for a while, but we seem to have overcome them (see the work of Volker Thiel in Switzerland) and it is getting uncomfortably easy to mess with the viral genome. We can make, for instance, variants of the virus which cause infected cells to glow in the dark (by cloning in a gene for a jellyfish protein which glows, called Green Fluorescent Protein, "GFP"). That means we can likely also make variants which would do other, less harmless things.
If we release all the information, quite soon some apocalypse-minded guy with a bit of knowledge and too much of money (think Osama bin Laden if he had taken a PhD in virology and worked in biotech for a few years) could produce something very nasty indeed (imagine a variant virus which made 20% of patients go permanently blind).
So don't be so quick that every redaction is for the sake of avoiding embarrassment! It could be something to protect you. Go review Isaac Asimov's short story "The Dead Past".
Money quote:
"Nobody knew anything," said Araman bitterly, "but you all just took it for granted that the government was stupidly bureaucratic, vicious, tyrannical, given to suppressing research for the hell of it. It never occurred to any of you that we were trying to protect mankind as best we could."
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From VAERS own web site:
Anyone, including Healthcare providers, vaccine manufacturers, and the public [including ideologically-driven loop-a-dupe anti-vax cultists and their for-profit enablers] can submit reports to the system [including fake reports, which don't usually get checked or exposed]. While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness. Vaccine providers are encouraged to report any clinically significant health problem following vaccination to VAERS even if they are not sure if the vaccine was the cause. In some situations, reporting to VAERS is required of healthcare providers and vaccine manufacturers.
VAERS reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental, or unverifiable. Reports to VAERS can also be biased. As a result, there are limitations on how the data can be used scientifically. Data from VAERS reports should always be interpreted with these limitations in mind.
[…]
The number of reports alone cannot be interpreted as evidence of a causal association between a vaccine and an adverse event, or as evidence about the existence, severity, frequency, or rates of problems associated with vaccines.
Reports may include incomplete, inaccurate, coincidental and unverified information.
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My experiences with FDA (actually vicarious experiences - I didn't interact directly with them, but I worked alongside of some folks who did) was surprisingly good. Everyone at the company expected their (FDA's) people to be three-headed monsters but they turned out to be very smart, conscientious, energetic scientific bureaucrats, trying to do incredibly demanding jobs well.
FDA isn't perfect, but they manage to avoid most of the obvious possible blunders, which is the best one can expect from an agency like that, charged with preventing and correcting scientific errors in a very esoteric, rapidly-evolving field.
One other thing: it's a mistake to evaluate Dr. Fauci as an expert in HIV, COVID, FIKA, SARS, or vaccination, although he excels in all those areas. His central, nearly-unique expertise is in on how to deal with a much scarier, much more alarming pathogen: the terrifying scourge known as Pestis WeDon'tKnowWhatTheHellItIsYetOrWhatIt'sGonnaDoNext. Now that is a challenging specialty.
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