Comments by "Theodore Shulman" (@ColonelFredPuntridge) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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My dad was a cryptanalyst in the Korean War. The high-security intelligence complex where he worked was color-coded, everyone wore photo-ID and the color of your ID determined which buildings you were allowed to enter, and the guards had orders to carefully check IDs every time you entered a building. When my dad first arrived, during the orientation, the officer in charge (General? Colonel? I don't know what his rank was) emphasized the importance of security and encouraged new arrivals to undertake personal projects to improve security on their own initiative. Well, my dad was buddies with the guy in charge of making the photo-IDs (using a primitive laminating machine), and he got this guy to make him an ID with a photo of Stalin! And my dad wore this ID and went in and out of buildings for MORE THAN SIX MONTHS before a guard noticed. (Guard: "Wait a minnit, you don't have a mustash!" --Dad: "Well, I shaved it off!" --Guard: "Lemme see that!")
So dad went before the disciplinary committee, and said "The [Guy-In-Charge] said to undertake personal security-projects, and that's what this was, and I'd say the security here needs some work!"
We asked Dad several times whether that was a true story. He always confirmed that it was.
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TWO criticisms (I'm sure you won't mind):
1. Rare earths are common, and present in waste from other mines, but not very densely so. Deposits dense enough to be useful are unusual and important.
2. The fact that China has gained control of the industry by subsidizing it so that rare earths are cheaper, doesn't really help us all that much. What I mean is, history is full of situations where making something cheaper makes society more dependent on it even though the guys who make it cheaper are doing us a favor, not hurting us, by doing so. Your argument about this is like saying if the car companies stopped making cars (or started overcharging us for them) we could just go back to using horses and make the car companies back down. OR, like saying if the makers of laparoscopic surgical instruments went on strike, we could just go back to doing heart surgery by cutting people's chests open and breaking their ribs. Sure, we didn't lose anything when the laparoscopic instruments came out, but we would still lose a lot if they were taken away now. Returning to a previous status quo can be much more painful than never having left it would be.
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