Comments by "Theodore Shulman" (@ColonelFredPuntridge) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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The Chinese government unleashed the virus on us in order to prevent the opera houses in Europe and USA and South America from staging Puccini's last opera, Turandot (if you are familiar with the aria "Nessun dorma", that's from Turandot) because it is set in Peking (Pekino) and depicts the Chinese people as brutal savages ruled by a sadistic tyrant.
Turandot had become trendy again (the opera world is very faddish) and numerous opera houses, great (La Scala, the Met, Chicago Lyric Opera) and small (Regina Opera in Brooklyn) were getting ready to do it. The current government of China - Xi - couldn't stand for that.
Now that the pandemic has more or less resolved (not just temporarily, we hope) the companies are doing operas by Puccini, but, notably, not Turandot. They're doing La bohème and Il Trittico. So the Chinese strategy seems to have worked.
This is why the pathology of COVID is so harmless, relative to what it could have been. The Chinese government didn’t want to kill a lot of people, only to sicken us enough to shut down the opera houses and get the companies to choose a new repertoire.
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Also, how dangerous and abortion is to future fertility, depends very much on the surgeons, skill or lack of skill. In Leningrad, it seemed that the surgeons, although they were horribly underpaid, were mostly reasonably good at their jobs. Also, now that I think of it, there was one exception to the rule of doctors and surgeons being underpaid, and that was gynecology, I mean sex doctors. They enjoyed very comfortable incomes, because, the government required them to report all cases of venereal disease, and patients used to reward them handsomely for disobeying this requirement – either reward them with money, but more often with special favors, which the patients jobs put them in a position to have access to. So if you were the daughter of a plumber, you might reward your gynecologist for treating your venereal disease without reporting it, by arranging for your father, to go unclog the pipes in his apartment without him having to wait for the government bureaucracy to arrange a home visit from a plumber employed by the government. This was called doing business by barter or in Russian “po_blatu”. It was pretty much the only way the service economy worked. So having a wide circle of friends and friends of friends was much more important than having money.
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One other thing: the safety or non-safety of any abortion anywhere depends very heavily on how early in pregnancy you can get it done. In Leningrad, the women, I knew were mostly university, students and pretty conscientious about taking care of themselves that way although they were not very good in many other ways – they drank like fish, and they chain smoked.
One final story if I made about this subject, when I went to Leningrad, I brought with me enough American condoms to last my entire stay, which was one semester just in case I were to fall in love on day one. It turned out. I only used a couple of them, so when it was time to leave, I gave the remainder to one of my Russian language teachers. I thought he would think it was one of my obnoxious jokes – I was quite a practical Joker in those days – and I was quite surprised when he thanked me with tears in his eyes. I told my Russian roommate about this, and he explained that for an almost 4 month supply of American condoms the teacher could probably get enough good cuts of meat and good wine to have a feast every weekend for a year. All, of course, po-blatu.
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The thing at the end about a state governor jumping in and providing some motivating inspiration to the young voters who are disgusted by both geriatric-R and geriatric-D, is interesting. But it wouldn't have to be a governor! Remember how Ross Perot jumped in in 1992, and showed that we didn't have to go on trying to think about the post-Cold-War world using the obsolete, Cold-War, mutually-assured-nuclear-destruction-and-spooky-spy-stories conceptual framework?
Suppose a hitherto-non-political person - someone like, say, Jodie Foster - were to enter the election, inspire a lot of young people, get a following, and then, at the key moment, drop out and throw her support behind Joe Biden. He would win in a landslide, and she would be positioned for a strong serious bid of her own in 2028, having been the one who saved the Democrats' asses in 2024.
Sound impossible? It's not very different from what Ronald Reagan did 1976 (following up in 1980), and Ross Perot 1992. (Ross turned out to be nutty, but by the time he withdrew, he had enabled us to break out of the Cold-War mentality and start thinking appropriately for the internet-age, and Bill Clinton was just as effective in that context as Perot would have been.)
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It seems like Peter is listing current Trends in scientific research (I say trends, but some of my friends were still in the scientific research business would say fads) and describing some of their current limits. That’s not a good way to think about scientific innovation. Technologies of the future, and if anything can save us from our demographic doom, it will be technologies of the future, will be surprising and probably very different from what we imagine now. Just as many or most of the futurists who, back in the 1960s, predicted the computer age got a lot of details wrong. Arthur C Clarke for instance predicted one giant supercomputer mounted on a satellite, with a team of resident astronauts on hand to replace the vacuum tubes as they burnt out.
How many readers, before the pandemic, were aware that mRNA vaccines might be useful for preventing diabetes, or colon cancer, and that this was a good reason to fund researching the method?
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