Comments by "Golag Is watching you" (@golagiswatchingyou2966) on "Monsieur Z"
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If you asked me 2 weeks ago if Russia could win vs Ukraine I would have said the same thing.
However, having seen how much the Russian military has messed up, how low their moral is, how incompetent their leaders are, the scale of the sanctions and esspecialy the determination and ability of Ukraine to defend itself, I've become convinced they will win.
I believe it was Sun Tsu that said "victory is given by the enemy" meaning if the enemy is still willing to fight no matter what, you won't have victory, the Ukrainians are fighting on every level, have the weapons to take out Russian tanks, the advancement of Russian troops has come to a crawl and with each passing day the rubal goes further down, the Kremlin might not care about suffering Russian people but their soldiers on the front lines do and many are deserting, have surrendered or sabotage their own tanks and cars just so they have an excuse to surrender.
Unless Russia starts sending in the shock troops and totally goes full Stalin on the people and finds a way to break their spirit and will to fight, Ukraine will win.
That being said I do think Russia can force a treaty in which they gain some of the eastern parts of Ukraine, it's not like Ukraine really wants to keep those parts anyways nor will it be worth much after this war.
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it's very unlikely, the idea of the EU becoming a federation and either annexing or merging with Russia makes way more sense than a merger with the USA and Russia, the two have nothing in common, don't share a border, language is different, history is different, economies aren't that tied to one another, political system is different, while that's also true for the most part with the EU, at least they share more of a history, Russia is a slavic language, economies are much more tied together, political systems while different are closer than the US system, they share borders with eachother.
in short the Russia-US merger is as likely as Brazil merging with China.
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as a Dutch person, we know surprisingly little about Indonesia or our own history related to it, all I know is that we did exploit the locals a lot, kept certain technologies away from the general public and mostly ran it on a combination of rubber, sugar, tea and spices plantation. We did not really try to convert the people to christianity though missionair's would try and convert locals of course and we also did not try and impose our language upon the local as a means of cultural colonialism, that being said we of course weren't very nice though not as cruel as some of the British, Belgium or Portuguese colonies were.
As for the future of Indonesia, I can only look at the border maps of ethnic groups, religions and languages and ask myself ''how the hell did we manage to rule this place for so long?'' this place is a giant mess and it's also along the sea which makes isolationism for it's distinct cultures on each island even more likely, the fact that Java has such a massive population compared to the others is also very bizzar, you would think it be a little more spread out over all the islands.
If I could think of any way of Indonesia to continue existing it would be to have a very federalist view of it's own identity, try and find ways to both supress and assimulate local cultures, languages, religions together, perhaps continue pressing the threat of China or other powers in the region as a means of maintaining their own national identity, though I think it's almost inevitable that major parts of the islands are going to break away at some point, not sure how to respond to those break away, doing nothing might cause a chain reaction, then again supressing those moves for succesion might further devolve the already fragile state.
I have no idea, I think it's a miracle it stayed together for as long as it already has, just look at Yugoslavia, it had like 20 times less ethnic people between eachother and enemies to unite against and they still fell apart.
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you could say the same about the USA or the Russian federation, who is going to run it and how? I think it's very likely that there would be a new constitution for all member states and one that all member states would have to agree on, that would really be the main issues since each member state has a specific kind of constitution and thus would clash in legal battles as we see today with Poland and EU laws, that being said I don't see why they could not make a constitution that works for all, there are plenty of examples to pick from the USA being the best example for such a large scale.
though I would not say a copy of the US constitution would work, better would be to adopt laws by by it's member states to get the best of all with minimal conflicts between them, the major conflict is between southern Europe and eastern Europe with western Europe and northern europe having largely the same laws already, a compromise might be nessisary and for the parlement to actually work people need to be represented in a more direct manner than the current form of elections, less top down and more bottom up.
it's complicated for sure but we have seen examples of this happen and working in the past, Germany used to be a collection of smaller states consolidated into a single state, a European federation would be much the same.
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@GUNN3R1990 it should have been closer to 90% for such an important vote but it's high enough to be legitimate for sure.
I don't think you understand what I meant, your nation is not independent nor is it powerfull, the UK is a joke because the people voted for Brexit but don't vote for leaders that will actually keep it free, independent and strong which is what's needed for any nation's people, culture and identity to survive let alone thrive, I like the UK that's why it's so tragic and sad to see them this weak and not acting in their own self interest and as a result you now see more independence movements from the UK in northern ireland, scotland and wales, you say you care about your nation yet your nation seems to be imploding and collapsing and you don't even realise it.
the irony is that the UK as a member of the EU would probably be a lot more stable and exist for much longer than it's current path it is on with it's current leadership, you might think that's not true and fair enough but I think the majority of people in the EU don't want to leave the EU because of the mess of brexit and the lack of real change that people want to see even if they dislike the EU seems better than leaving.
that should be an indicator for you that brexit is not working otherwise other nations would have pushed for the same thing by now, when in fact the opposite is happening, now you can disregard everything i said and believe I only care about power or the world stage or whatever but that's just not true and hope the UK does well but im not seeing it doing well which makes me sad.
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while Russia does hold massive more military power and would very much be able to take Ukraine, it would probably be unable to hold it for long, suffer immense losses while doing so, it would be a disaster for Russia and Ukraine if they went to war, we have to remember that war is politics by other means, Russia would go to war with Ukraine if it sees no other means of gaining it´s political goals. Ukraine´s leadership as well as most of it´s people aren´t interested in backing down to Russian interest, moral is high, support for the Ukrainian government is very strong and really only it´s eastern region has any interest in joining Russia and even then it´s not that supportive, mostly a means to an end of the conflict and bring some stability.
do I think Russia is going to invade Ukraine? yes, do I think it's all of Ukraine? no, would Ukraine be split in two perhaps? possible but not likely, I think the Russians are going to invade but it's going to fail after years of sanctions as well as heavy losses both from the conflict itself as well as citizens going to arms against Russia, there is still a possibility for peace but that would mean stronger NATO action, stronger EU action and stronger sanctions against not just Russia but also Germany for supporting Russia indirectly, that would make Russia reconsider attacking Ukraine for sure.
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@GUNN3R1990 the thing is you have neither now, your not significant on the world stage, nor are you independent with your own distinct culture and people anymore, it's very depressing actually to see, esspecialy knowing how great the UK used to be, not having anything close to that anymore and being humiliated, abused and seen as a joke is just tragic and sad, I rather see a strong, independent and great UK than a weak, divided and beaten UK as a member if the EU, even if that would magically make the EU powerfull on the world stage.
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@lif3andthings763 the UK and most western countries are actually doing that, promoting the idea that native culture just deserves to be wiped out while also extracting resources from them to fund it, not to mention that most western nations are aging, meaning that within 20-50 years the majority native population is going to collapse and what's left will be a minority of native people and a new majority of "diverse" people.
Now you don't need to care about that, even though it's against your own self interest, but say it what it is, it's colonialism and at worst ethnic cleansing, if it's wrong when Europeans do it (on a much smaller scale btw) then how is it suddenly justified when it's us? If anything your fueling far right and extremist thinking because you prove to society that democracy does not work to defend ones own nation, which is exactly the argument that was made by historical fascism, if you want to repeat history, oke but I think that's very stupid and easy to avoid.
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