Comments by "Olga P." (@olgap.) on "Anders Puck Nielsen"
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@Asptuber Please don't take thoughts of a bored, not even interested in politics, housewife too serious.
""As the conflict will not end with acceptance of defeat, it will have to move somewhere else. "
Hmm, are you thinking Georgia? Some other non-NATO ex-soviet state?" To answer that we need to know why Ukraine is being under attack now. If we look at it as part of a larger disharmony gone conflict NATO-Russia going on since 1991, any non-NATO country where USA starts peeing on Russia's leg can be next. No, I don't think Putin will try to swallow one country after another without any threat to be expected. But who am I to judge what is threat in Putin's opinion?
""If Putin accepts defeat under the narrative of war Russia against the West it will be seen as weakness, and that does not help to keep power in Russia. "
Putin needs something that can be dressed up as a victory. The smarter way for him to get this would be to concentrate not on "the West", but on the Ukronazis. "
Well, the narrative The West is against us and we have to stand our ground is already there. He can not shake it off while the West is increasing its involvement on a daily basis.
""Turning the special operation into the war officialy as an answer to unfriendly actions of the West who is eager for escalation is the only way to keep power in Russia"
But this would be stupid*, because there is less possibilities of victory, and more problems from unrest at home.
*Stupid as things stand now. But if the West, or a neighbour (Moldova would be the prime candidate, maybe Georgia, or Azerbadjan?), somehow let itself be baited into the conflict, the calculation changes dramatically. If someone gave him a clear casus-belli that he could "win" this scenario works much better."
Exactly, "*Stupid as things stand now." and only if you look at this military operation on its own. I think this special military operation was not even planned to happen. Concidered as one of options, but not a firm plan from the start. What triggert the invasion? Now he is in Ukraine and it would be fatal ambarrassing to loose the operation against Ukraine. But being in a war with the West trying with all means to prevent Russia protecting its interests is something different. Loose the battle to win the war later could be a plausible explanation for Russian population. Winning the war would be here to weaken the West till is gives up and starts cooperating again.
"The problem for Putin is that he can't turn this into an actual big war (aka world war 3), because he can't win that. He can only escalate for the home audience, not in reality (at least not too much). Great escalation in reality leads to a really humiliating defeat, and loss of power for him, and in the worst case destruction of Russia as it is now. "
There is nothing Putin can do, Russia will not be as it was before 24th of February. Do you believe, that if the invasion stops today, Russian army leaves all Ukrainian territories including Donbas and Crimea, USA and EU will pretend nothing happened and set back the framework to the conditions of the middle of 2021? Putin does not only need a victory he can sell at home. That helps short term, but in the long run he needs something that either brings Russia and EU at least trading with each other again or to build up new partnerships that are able to compensate the EU. Russia can not win WW3 on its own, can not afford loosing this spesial military operation either. NATO can not stop after massive participation and harm dome to own economies as well. I don't think Putin will escalate proactive, he will react to what he defines to be an attack. Both sides, NATO and Russia, can not just stop, both sides can not endless escalate. Economies of all participants suffer, the money will decide over win or loose.
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12:25-13:05. There is a lot to unpack here. What are your statements based on? All I observe is exactly the opposite.
To begin with, Russians do not want to see Putin at all and he knows it. How else would you explain the way he confirmed he runs for presidency in 2024? Was it a loud and proud public announcement swimming on the wave of popular support? Why are there no photos of Putin on his election advertisement posters, in contrast with his previous ones? How is gathering signatures going? Why, again, did gathering hot spots disappear? May it be because nobody showed up?
If it was "popular in Russia when they make this attacks (on civilian objects)" , why would state media, as you yourself mentioned at 8:25, describe them as unintentional, collateral, caused by Ukrainians who do not know what they are doing? Is it how state media would present a welcome event? If the war was popular, would Putin justify he started it with phrases like "we were forced", "we did not have any other choice"?
Why would Putins regime bother about single people holding up empty sheet of paper, if it would've been enough just to bomb couple of playgrounds or hospitals and everything is peachy?
I could go on, but you as an analyst are certainly aware of all I would say. So, why the hell are you feeding Putins propaganda by spreading such rediculous lies? What happened to the person who ones wrote this: "The tone about ordinary Russians has become increasingly hostile in the West. They are portrayed as terrible people, incapable of independent thought, and genetically predisposed for imperialism and autocracy. This is understandable, but at the same time it strikes me as utterly unproductive if we want #Russia to change"?
Perhaps I am too harsh and you are right. So, what are your statements based on?
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