Comments by "Carey\x27s Corner" (@careylymanjones) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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Poll denial - the last refuge of the NeverTrumper.
Pollsters are paid to get it right. When pollsters get it wrong, the other pollsters make fun of them. And worse, politicians, don't HIRE them. Pollsters mostly like their jobs, and if they can't get it right, they have to get real jobs. So they're highly motivated to get it right.
The real Joker in this year's deck is abortion. The main reason the Red Wave of 2022 didn't happen is Idjit Lindsay Graham's idjit Federal Abortion Ban Bill. The bill had NO chance of becoming law, but it rallied the baby-killers against Republicans. Gen Z voted in record numbers, and they broke hard for Dems. It broke the pollsters' models, and Dems did better than polls predicted. In spite of that, Republicans ended up with control of the House.
Expect Dems to play the coathanger card, with abortion referendums to rally their troops. But they've got serious problems, in the Presidential race. Black voters are polling in the 20% range, for Trump. That's higher than any Republican, since at least Ronald Reagan. Dems need to pull 85-90% of a big black voter turnout, or they're in trouble.
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