Comments by "Posthumanist" (@thornelderfin) on "PolyMatter"
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@hyxnbwd666 You said: "If China truly had the same problems as Russia, it wouldn't have become the world's second-largest economy. This achievement isn't solely due to its population size."
-- GDP of Russia = $15,444
-- GDP of China = $13,721
So it is exactly because of population size. China's GDP is around that if Russia, Malaysia, Costa Rica, Bulgaria and Argentina. But mutiply that by the population and you get second largest econonmy in the world (if you don't count EU as a single economy, otherwise it's third). A LOT of the economic success was due to China opening to foreign investments and foreign trade. So don't paint China as some kind of miracle, because it is not. It has medium level GDP, comparable to the countries I've listed above (including Russia), and just incredibly large population - so if you add that up together it's going to be trillions of USD inevitably.
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@webcaveman4534 Alright, let's separate annexations from colonies. I was born and grew up in communist Czechoslovakia completely under control of Moscow, with tanks sent against our people who were completely unarmed just for the grave sin of trying to be very little bit more independent (we had a movement called "communism, but with a human(e) face", that was not acceptable for Moscow, so they sent tanks in 1968). Their secret police roamed free and disappeared people regularly. Also killed quarter of my family (1948) and sent the rest to labor camp for 3 years. Many many people were not that lucky and got disappeared permanently. Moscow also took most of our resources (we really had no say in anything, it was a totalitarian dictatorship installed by Moscow). If you wanted to leave the country you got shot at the border, everyone, even children. I lived right at the border, but it wasn't even a secret, they wanted people to know. Not having a job was illegal. All jobs were for the state (=Moscow), as private enterprises didn't exist / were not allowed. It was one very large "labor camp" for Russia/Moscow (don't tell me bullshit about USSR not being Russia, you will just make me very angry, I was there!, it was 100.00% controlled by Moscow, it was Russian empire 2.0 with external colonies and internal colonies). Moscow destroyed economy of my country, killed so many of us and took everything they wanted. We were exactly what you describe as a colony. Poland had same fate, Hungary had same fate, Romania was also a colony of Russia/Moscow, Bulgaria was the same, DDR was the same, and Yugoslavia and Albania. ... So now compared this with how many colonies had USA at that time (please, make a list of countries held as colonies by the US in 1980s, so we can compare), and UK, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Spain and Portugal decolonized in early 1960s almost completely (there were very few left, and shame on them for that). Next comment we compare internal colonies and annexations.
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@webcaveman4534 You: "
If we were to make a list of countries that were annexed by the Soviet Union directly (not just Russia), most of which were remnants from the Tsarist period, we get:
- Estonia (only the 3 baltic countries were annexed following a period of brief independence)
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Azerbaijan (countries from here down are from the Tsarist era)
- Georgia
- Moldova
- Ukraine
- Belarus
- Kazakhstan
- Tajikistan
- Uzbekistan
- Kyrgyzstan
- Turkmenistan "
-- Thank you for making the list. It seems accurate, except the remark that Soviet Union was not Russia - it absolutely was Russia and everything was 100% controlled by Moscow, everyone who ever lived under Soviet Union and the colonies (Eastern bloc) has experienced that (including me) and knows it without a doubt. There are millions and millions of witnesses still alive today. The Eastern bloc were external colonies of Russia, then the remaining 14 USSR countries were internal colonies of Russia, and even inside Russia proper absolute majority of the land are internal-internal colonies - Dagestan, Chechnya, Buryatia... all the Caucasus, entire Asian part of Russia. That is land of native tribes that have lived there longer than Slavs even exist and they have completely different ethnicity, completely different language, different religion, different culture... they are independent native nations and Muscovites just steamrolled through, killed everyone who resisted and took their land, took complete control, and extracted all their resources for profit. This is the very definition of colonies / colonization. I am now not blaming Russia for doing that hundreds of years ago - back then everyone was doing it (especially Western Europe). I am blaming Russia was not decolonizing in 1960s when everyone else did it. And STILL not decolonizing today (they are doing exactly the opposite - invading their former colony and annexing their land and people back). Muscovites are getting rich on siberian gas, oil, metals and other minerals, while they live in absolute desolation (I have friends from there and my father went there multiple times). These are Muscovite colonizes that they still refuse to let go - the land belongs to the natives who are different race, ethnicity, language, religion and culture. This is what I am talking about when I talk about destruction of Russia as a state in the next 10 years - its total and complete decolonization.
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@webcaveman4534 I agree with you that Russia has not been unique in its conquest and colonization - it was pretty standard. Even their brutality was commonplace back then in all other empires. What I am complaining about is that most other countries stopped doing that more than 2 generations ago and Russia somehow didn't get the memo. Even their brutality is stuck from 100 years ago. They had a chance to completely transform into a modern nation in 1991. But no, at the first sign of trouble they turned to a strongman and made him a dictator and now long for the old times and want Soviet Union back (just talk to regular Russians, you would be shocked how many of them want Soviet Union back and have Soviet flags). This is what I am complaining about. Instead of transforming into a modern nation from 1991, they are reverting and going back in time to Soviet glory days (1960s). Backwards nation, backwards culture, that constantly lives in the past, in the "Great Patriotic War" (which they started and caused and then couldn't even defend without massive external help, but somehow feel like they were the greatest victim and absolute victor). I had small hope for Russia in the 1990s, I would maybe even forgive them for my family and destroying my country, I am not sure... but no, they have proven they are now what they were back then. They bring the worst things from WWI and WWII times era and mentality into 2023. This is no longer acceptable.
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@webcaveman4534 You: (your paragraph about NATO expansion, Poland, nukes, Clinton, etc.)
-- Educated analysis that is probably factually true, but you omit one fundamental point of view - the moral one - What do people in these countries actually want. I've seen many people from the US and some from the West and everyone from Russia think about us small countries as not really equal, without even realizing they are doing it. We are all human and all humans are equal, so all countries have to be equal too. So you either look at this from moral point of view and then the only thing that matters is what tens of millions of human beings living here for thousands of years want - what Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria wants (their people). Russia has absolutely no say whatsoever in what military alliances we join or what we do with our countries same way as Slovakia has absolutely no say whatsoever what Russia does with their country. A lot of people in the West forget this, because they instinctively perceive us as spheres of influence (=colonies) and not really "countries that matter" (Putin's words).
Or we can look at it from point of view of cynical geopolitics and "might makes right". In that case US should have strangled and destroyed Russia in 1991 - 1999. Russia was worse than Nazi Germany (in number if killed people and lives destroyed), and was not punished for genocide (Red Terror, Holodomor), for starting second world war together with Hitler, and for endangering entire world with nuclear weapons. USA had unique opportunity to save tens of millions of lives and possibly the whole world by destroying Moscow completely in 1945 (USA was the only country in the world with nuclear weapons at that point and Russia/USSR was completely destroyed with almost nothing left, it wouldn't even be a match, just nuke it repeatedly… I would gladly sacrifice my entire family and my own life to save tens of millions of people killed and hundreds of millions of lives destroyed by Russia and almost the whole world… gladly).
Second chance USA had to destroy Russia was from 1991 to 1999 when Russia was incredibly weak, hungry (US saved Russians from starvation… and what did they get for it? Just more hate), and incapable of putting any organized resistance (and it would be enough to just starve them, ruin them economically to the very bottom or dismantle Russia from within). USA did nothing… again. And what is result of this inaction? Invasion of Moldova, an absolute massacre of Chechnya and flattening Grozny, invasion of Georgia, invasion of Ukraine, mass murder in Syria and flattening of Aleppo, and now really large war in Europe. Russia should have been destroyed long time ago, all these people could have been alive… all these countries free, all the children still alive. How many times does Russia have to come back from the dead only to invade all the countries around it until USA finally understands that this country is cancer on human civilization, same way Nazi Germany was, same way Imperial Japan was… and Russia needs the same treatment as them.
Third best chance to destroy Russia is right now. But USA will not do it, because endless foreverwar in Europe is very lucrative business for American Military Industrial Complex. They will send enough weapons for Ukraine to not lose, but not enough to win. It will be difficult to balance, but that is what they are doing right now and what they will continue doing. That's why USA already approved 5-years support plan for Ukraine. They lost Afghanistan as lucrative business, now they are trying to seize the opportunity to make Ukraine a foreverwar. (and no, USA/CIA/NATO didn't start the war… I've been to both Russia and Ukraine, I know many Ukrainians, including my best friend, and I have 6 refugees in my house (2 mothers, 4 kids) since the beginning of the war, and they are native Russian speakers born in Ukraine… they all genuinely wanted to join the EU and be rich like other Eastern European countries that joined and join NATO to be protected from Russia after 2014… US Military Industrial Complex didn't put these thoughts in their mind, these are most natural wants of any person - to not be poor and not be invaded or oppressed … but US Military Industrial Complex is most certainly using everything they can out of this situation… as all corporations do).
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@webcaveman4534 You: "My opinion is that if there is a NATO, it should be for Europe only (like the EU) but limited for certain defense situations, like sharing intelligence, bases, and training together."
-- I would understand if US wanted out of NATO. That is 100% decision of US citizens and none else. But what "EU NATO" would do is only up to us here and none else. We are halfway to a superstate and one centralized military is a very logical step. We no longer plan to invade one another inside the EU (after 2500 years of doing just that non-stop), and we also don't plan to invade other countries (maybe except France and their mild imperial flashbacks), so we can all join our militaries into one single unit.
You: "I think it would be unwise to expand NATO to East Asia and Australia (see the name North Atlantic), as this treaty historically didn’t cover European outposts like Hong Kong, Goa, or the Falklands, and making it do so now would be needlessly provocative and cause more wars."
-- I disagree (my personal opinion). Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship with imperial ambitions. China is a totalitarian dictatorship with imperial ambitions. North Korea is an insane totalitarian dictatorship of unmatched brutality that has ambitions to invade South Korea. Iran is a theocracy dictatorship (I know some Iranians including one girl I dated and large part of the population hates the dictatorship but are powerless to overthrow it… they are still trying, many of them died in the process). You cannot compare these brutal dictatorships with something like USA. Yes, us democracy is very flawed (not 1 person = 1 vote, electoral college, superdelegates, gerrymandering, SuperPacs), but it is so very far from these dictatorships and nowhere near their brutality. Also Ukraine is 100% democratic (very corrupt, I've seen it, every Ukrainian will tell you that, but democratic and free). Taiwan is 100% democratic and free (I've also seen it when I was there). South Korea is 100% democratic and free. The totalitarian dictatorships stick together and have ambitions far beyond their borders. Either we (democratic and free countries) stick together and destroy these monstrosities (I was born inside one, I don't wish this fate on anyone, I want all these people to be free, same as I wished it for myself and my family while I was inside), or they will break us one by one until they conquer the whole world (and make no mistake, Hitler would have conquered the whole world, he would never stop, Stalin would have done the same, Hirohito would have done the same … it would be incredibly naïve that Russia and China would stop, anywhere, no, they will keep trying until they win the whole game and conquer everything). Same situation was in 1930s where totalitarian dictatorships started to ally with each other - Hitler with Mussolini, with Francisco Franco, with Stalin and Hirohito. Same thing is slowly happening today. We need to learn from history or we will repeat it again and again and again.
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@miaorenfeng1 Alright, that's more reasonable. I agree with what you said but with the following additional notes:
1) GDP PPP + HDI + GINI does matter in a potential war setting, because it is one of the factors that matter for emigration/immigration and whether you want to be annexed by another country (if Haiti is being annexed by USA and granted a full citizenship, democratic voting rights and freedom, they may not fight back as hard as for example Taiwan which has twice the standard of living of China, much better equality (GINI) and incomparably better development index (HDI) / standard of living, full democracy and even more incomparable freedom index). So this matters, because it gives morale and will to fight, but not as much as military power of course.
2) What you suggest about tertiary sector is very logical. But the actual mathematical function to calculate how capable would a country be in a war of attrition (assuming nobody wins in the first months of war), this has to be a very complex mathematical function that includes everything you said and a lot more, including reserve stockpiles, levels of corruption in the military and society as a whole, discipline, morale, political and military allies ... I think this is all too much for people like us to responsibly be able to measure all these things. Even the US invasion of Luxembourg might not be as simple as just two numbers due to France, Belgium, Germany, EU, UN, local US support for such action and many other factors. ... But we can of course crudely compare brute military force by military expenditure of given country over long periods of time (stockpiles).
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@miaorenfeng1 You: "I think you are exaggerating the role of democracy and freedom, most countries are democratic and free, but most of them are far less developed than China. For Chinese, democracy and freedom are not a necessity, but a condiment."
-- I was born under Russian military occupation in a communist totalitarian country (here in Europe) and was forced to grow up in it. You don't have to tell me the value of freedom and of democracy. Only people who lost it understand it. Only people who don't have mentality like sheep, that they don't want to be herded like cattle by someone else. It is far more important than any money or standard of living. We were not able to even leave our country (you would get shot at the border, everyone got) and work was mandatory, it was illegal to not have a job (you could still choose which one, but you couldn't be without a job - that was punishable by law). It was like one large prison colony. If you give up some of your right to vote or some of your freedom to have more money - in the end totalitarian dictatros will take all your rights to vote, all your freedom (whenever they want) and then in the end even all your money, because there is nothing you can do about it. Personal freedom and right to vote (democracy) is absolutely fundamental to existence.
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@miaorenfeng1 You: "The USSR had many allies when it was strong, and when it declined, former allies became current enemies"
-- That's true. I am one of them.
You: "The vast majority of America's allies do not have a conflict of interest with China, and there are even many allied allies whose largest trading partner is China, and an all-out war with China would not do any good to these countries."
-- To be clear. If China doesn't invade Taiwan, then I don't want war with China, and I don't want to destroy or invade China. 100% But if China invades Taiwan, then everything is off the table and we will fight till the end. It doesn't matter that it will hurt our economy in a horrible way (and China same way - it goes both ways), nothing matters at that point. It is very simple for China to avoid complete disaster - just don't invade free and democratic Taiwan (if China wants Taiwan it has to PERSUADE Taiwanese people to actually want to join, that's fine), or any other neighboring country. If China doesn't invade anyone with military, I am fine with China.
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@miaorenfeng1 You: "The US is in an all-out war with China to maintain US world supremacy, what benefits can US allies gain?"
-- I can say the same about China. Teaching Han Chinese supremacy in schools (ethno-nationalist government) and teaching that west is the enemy to small children (to be fair they teach small children how to kill Japanese, which they hate even more than us from the west). China is constantly preparing for war and rallying internally... what did China expect, that we will watch like stupid and not prepare for it? If China didn't want war witht he west, it should probably not rally against the evil west interanlly to their own people non-stop (they think if it's in Mandarin that west will not find out or what? I don't understand their plan). Again, nobody was going to invade China (same as nobody was going to invade Russia), we are all doing business with China, there is respect for China... what more do they need? Why rally against the west? We here in Europe have absolutely no mass media campaign against China, there is nothing like this here, but China has that against us internaly.
You: "Even Japan will not participate in a war between China and the US."
-- China hates Japan so much, that even US and Europe is not hated that much. I know, Japanese did some uspeakable things in China, that is true. But everyone who did that is already dead. Japan is now new country, with new people, new goals. They do not conquer anyone anymore, they do not build their military, they focus on technology and economy. Why can't China forgive after such an incredibly long time (3 entire generations). My family was killed by Nazi Germans, part of them had to flee, we lost a lot... but we hold no grudge against Germans today. We have no hate for them, all is forgiven, because they are a changed country. My country has been occupied by Hungary for 1000 years (yes, 1 thousand), yet we don't hate the Hungarians. It was a long time ago and everyone who did it is dead. We focus on the future. But not China, still so much hate for Japan. Then if the war breaks out Taiwan will be there, Japan will be there, Korea will be there, Australia will be there, Europe will be there, USA will be there, Canada will be there... and even India doesn't like China (border war and mutual vilification). China is not exactly making friends with its foreign policy.
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@ArawnOfAnnwn You are just an American (you posted while it was night here in Europe, or early morning in eastern Russia) who read about this on some social media post and now you are an expert. I live right next to Ukraine, I have been there many times and I have many friends from there including my best friend for the past 15 years. I have also been to Russia once and know several people from there. Ukrainians always wanted to join EU and not be part of Russian empire ever again (oppression, poverty, Red Terror, Holodomor genocide). In 2003 they started Orange revolution against a Russian controlled puppet president and in 2014 they did exactly the same when democratically elected president who promissed accession to the EU turned 180° on this election promise and dismissed the EU accession. This made MILLIONS of people angry and ousted the president (which happens in my country all the time - people give vote, people can take it back at any time - president is your SERVANT that you are paying to do some political tasks for you, NOTHING MORE, if your servant / employee doesn't perform his tasks, you will fire him... you should try that). Then immediately after ousting the corrupt president (who fled to Russia next day and left lavish opulent palaces of corruption behind him, it made Ukrainians really angry) they had proper election and voted in a fully democratic way. (Neo-nazi far-right party Right Sector got 1% of vote, that's for a country full of Nazis) They voted in Petro Poroshenko - a corrupt oligarch, because he had the money for political campaign. After 4 years, they were disappointed with him and voted for anti-corruption candidate Zelensky (who turned out to be little bit corrupt too, off shore account in Panama) and they were being disappointed by him in 2021 too, his popularity droped very much, until Russia invaded, now his popularity is 90%, only because of the invasion, if Russia didn't invade AGAIN in 2022, Ukrainians would vote Zelensky out and vote for another politician to disappoint them). This is all 100% democratic and it's straight from Ukrainians themselves, and as I said, I have been there many times. ... Ukrainians want to be part of EU and always wanted to be part of EU and Russia has ABSOLUTELY NO SAY IN IT. Same way Ukraine has no say in who can and who cannot be president of Russia, Estonia, Lavtia, Lithuania, Findland, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Georgia, Turkey - have no say in who can and who cannot be Russian president, or who can Russia go into alliance with. Russians were born in that country, they have lived their entire lives there, and they are the ONLY ones who will decide what alliances will Russia join and what to do with their land. Same way Ukrainians are the ONLY ones who decide whether to join NATO, EU or anything als and Russia has NO SAY in it, absolutely none. Taiwanese who were born there, lived their entire life there, have their home there, they are the only ones who decide what happens with Taiwan, not some imperial power of China. China has absolutely no say in it. Land belongs to the people.
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