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Emanon
Anders Puck Nielsen
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Comments by "Emanon" (@Emanon...) on "Anders Puck Nielsen" channel.
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In hindsight, NATO and China couldn't themselves have planned a better plan for isolating Russia and permanently remove them as a geopolitical rival.
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What weapons? There are no reports of any sizeable munitions or weapons being delivered. The aid package was basically an order for restocking depleted US stores already delivered to Ukraine. Or am I missing something here?
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This has nothing to do with democracy. It's about selfinterest and geopolitics. Israel is the perfect example how human rights and international law is absolutely irrelevant if the US deems it so.
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Not for the price of 90.000 estimated casualties and the cost in valuable military materiel lost.
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Ukraine and the US did however "break their word". I won't engage in the conspiracy regarding us meddling in the 2014 Maidan uprising. However, a few important points: - The US did indeed give verbal guarantees about NATO expansion to Russia. It's documented, although there are no actual treaties. - 2008: Memo regarding ascension of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO - The all-important lease on Sevastopol was denied, despite it being a part of the security framework. It's dishonest to frame this as purely Russian aggression and not also US treachery.
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Neither does a NATO intelligence officer with a YouTube channel. Just worth remembering with regards to sources...
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Disclaimer: Although I highly enjoy APN's factual expert analyses, don't forget that he is in fact a Lt. Commander in the Danish Armed Forces. Not only can his bias be questioned as a rep. for a country heavily invested in the war, it's also reasonable to assume that his information is heavily "curated" to present a certain narrative. I remember his analysis of the Nord Stream explosion with his conclusion that it was likely a Russian intel operation, and I was thinking "But they have nothing to gain from this. The US, however, weaning Europe off Russian gas, hitting the Russian economy, and able to export LNG at triple the rate has in fact everything to gain from this". He didn't even entertain the notion that the operation could be a US op. Just be a bit sceptical about his information, I know I am.
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TLDR: We don't know. And if we did, a NATO intelligence officer isn't going to share it with you.
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I've honestly lost a bit of respect for Anders since he's so adept at analysing combat methods and intelligence and has more or less refused to comment on the brutality and campaign of slaughter by the Israelis in Gaza. Especially since he has freely commented on the methods employed by Russia, of which 9000 Ukrainian civilians including 550 children have been killed over the past 21 months. For perspective Israel has killed 16000 Palestinians, 70% women and children among them 7000+ children in two months ! At the very least, I would have expected a thorough analysis of the absolutely impossible military undertaking, especially the job of eradicating a political ideology while traumatizing millions and radicalising them further towards the very same ideology.
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Grow up.
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Anders, can you do a game theory analysis of the attack on the Kerch Bridge (much like what you did with Nord-Stream)? I'm not entirely convinced that Ukraine was in fact responsible for the attack as 3rd actors (the US in particular) possibly stand to gain more from it. Would love to hear your thoughts on the matter. Tusind tak for super indhold!
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Do some episodes on Israel and their brutal campaign on Gaza. Or is it just okay to point out Russia's war crimes but not the war crimes of countries we support?
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The Russians could argue quite the opposite. Just trying to view the current climate and conflict from both sides. Otherwise you get Israel in Gaza, Vietnam and Iraq. Just remember that it's much easier to start a war than to end one, and that diplomacy is far, far better in terms of lives, treasure and refugees coming to Europe.
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The counteroffensive is more akin to a siege, than maneuver warfare. Ukraine simply doesn't have the necessary artillery and air capabilities to succesfully engage the entrenched Russian lines. Just an opinion, of course.
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Yes!
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APN is a great analyst, but bear in mind that he is in fact a NATO officer. The lens with which he views things should like any other biased reporter be taken with a pinch of salt.
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Knowing many journalists, they were lazy and didn't bother to do their due diligence before publishing. Don't expect a correction, because apparently admitting a mistake and correcting it is not seen as good journalism any longer...
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How many they need? Whatever they can get!
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I'm very sceptical about this. The restrictions on Ukraine is seemingly designed to purely hamper Ukraine in their war effort. The end result would be more Ukrainian and Russian lives lost, all to make Moscow bleed. It's seems like a cynical calculus of power, not a genuine wish to help the Ukrainian people and end their suffering. "Till the last Ukrainian", as they said...
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I find it extremely shameful how easily you can speculate about Russia/Ukraine, yet remain completely silent on Israel/Gaza. Is it cowardice or silent acceptance?
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Putin isn't trustworthy I agree. But neither is the US nor the US media and their chosen narratives. The US has managed to renege on every single agreement they've made internationally the past decade. That's simply a fact.
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Great analysis as usual. Why the media choose to interview self-serving pundits anout the war (including allowing criminals such as Kissinger to plug his new book) instead of actual experts such as yourself is beyond me. Keep up the good work!
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I'm afraid this is once more a "wunderwaffe" that'll be too little, too late to provide any meaningful contribution to the war effort. Do we have anything resembling estimates for the numbers they are able to produce and deploy? Or will it be like with rest of the "wunderwaffe" a handful?
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Did you mean: Israel?
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Yeah, those brilliant military and political analysts with their track record in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Failing upwards is apparently a feature.
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General rule of thumb: Anyone commenting on complex issues with absolute certainty, be it economics, geo-politics or under a fog of war like in this case, either has an agenda or is a charlatan. That is among the reasons why we all appreciate Puck Andersens honest and rational analyses so much.
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I still don't understand how Ukraine can unequivocally support a country like Israel. It comes off as sheer hypocrisy to me, much like the west's attitude towards Russia Vs Israel.
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I always listen to APN, but always with a grain of salt. He is after all a NATO intelligence officer. Of course certain things he can't or won't say and worth remembering that he also has an agenda. Just a bit of critical analysis advice.
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There's arguably no point in history where it was good to live in Russia.
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I agree, it doesn't make any sense. But neither did your theory about NordStream. It was the Americans that blew up Nordstream. Qui Bono.
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This is a bit unnecessary and seems more politically motivated than an actual military analysis. Whether these weapons are "long-range" or not is really not the key point. The key point is arming Ukraine with them in numbers that won't change the outcome, but will most assuredly provoke a response and/or escalate the conflict. I've always been sceptical of any actual side reporting (ie a NATO officer), but there are limits to the suspension of disbelief when these missiles were first proclaimed to be "game changer wunderwaffe" and now suddenly are downplayed as just being another set of usual old regular ordnance. Which is it, then?
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Thank you for your reply. I appreciate it. I have followed your channel for a while and saw the occasional video now and then before that: You've commented before on US politics, Iran and China, Australian naval strategy and doctrine. But I can accept and respect your decision to no muddy the waters by keeping the subject (mostly) on Russian and naval affairs. Apologies for the seemingly hostile OP. I won't edit it or remove it, as I believe in being responsible for what you say - in this case me. Cheers!
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The strategy is clear: A semi-proxy war to maximise damage inflicted on Russia for the lowest price possible (not counting the cost in human lives and suffering). The US has no intention of providing true, sizeable aid that could shift the balance of the war nor would they risk escalation. The US are willing to fight "till the last Ukrainian". We saw the same tactic in Syria where the US sought to weaken Syrian forces and Islamists by trickling aid to Free Syrian forces and Kurds during the civil war. Europe of course paid the price, once again, with millions of refugees as a result of these timid actions. Of course, as always with US foreign policies, it backfired as it strengthened the faction that would later become ISIS and ultimately led to an Assad victory.
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@AtleMyhre You can't make that comparison in any reasonable fashion. Russia hasn't even mobilised to a full war posture. This conflict is at its core much more political, akin to a proxy war, more than any WW "brute strength" contest.
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Because of the media's repeated expectation of quick victory, we now see public support for Ukraine faltering. Add to that economic crises and a wave of ultranationalist parties looking to advance politically, continued support for Ukraine, even among warmongering republicans in the US, is not a given...
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@lagrangewei I'd argue that Europe has been a military colony of the US since 1946. There are more American troops (under direct US command, not NATO) in Germany than most of the smaller NATO nations can muster as their entire current defence.
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Can you comment, as a military expert, on the credibility of the videos from the IDF where they claim they've found bunkers under hospitals? I've honestly reached the point where I don't trust anything from Israeli or US sources, as they are inherently biased and have a history of misinformation or outright lies towards the public.
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AP nielsen is a monument to professional and objective reporting. If only our Scandinavian media was more objective and less "neutral" when it comes to doing their duty...
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Best objective analysis you can find anywhere on operations and strategy! Thank you!
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Great video as always. Anders, can you comment on the Ukrainian colonel that took responsibility for blowing up Nordstresm? My gut tells me that Ukraine didn't have the expertise or capabilities to pull it off, and the timing would suggest that any "help" he had was not from Poland or Germany. Any thoughts?
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@stianh6164 Pointing out the hypocrisy of our governments and media. Doesn't mean I'm in any way condoning Putin's actions. It's not "whataboutism" if it's highly relevant and related to the topic. But thanks for showing me that you're just as brainwashed and impervious to common sense as the "Z" morons out there...
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Russia is no match for NATO from a purely military standpoint. The difference becomes markedly worse for Russia if you factor in economy, demographics and logistical capabilities. It's like the small dogs that are disproportionately aggressive and loud towards bigger dogs.
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APN is a great communicator, just be sure to remember that he's a NATO intelligence officer. There are things he can't say and he most likely has an agenda with his messages.
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Great video!
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Mearsheimer shouldn't be discarded, as he seems to be in the comments. He doesn't have access to classified information like the security community and high level advisors do, and APN has access to as a NATO intelligence officer. Something worth remembering as well when you practice source and media analysis. APN also has an agenda with his videos. Remember that the US security community all failed to see this coming, with all their resources and assets at their disposal. The same geniuses that said Iraq had WMDs and that Iraqis would hail the US as liberators and laid out a plan for democratizing Afghanistan. All things considered, Mearsheimer isn't "owned" by anyone contrary to being an employee of the Danish state, another NATO state or, god forbid, the outright lazy majority of western media... Just food for thought. Best regards A fan that thinks both of you are worth listening to.
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Of course they won't attack Poland.
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The same Golda Meir that also said: I'm a Palestinian Jew. And also said: I lament every first cry of a Palestinian newborn. She was as much a war criminal as Netanyahu.
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Still not a single word about Gaza? I'm somehow not surprised that a NATO officer and analyst (effectively a subordinate of the US) has been completely silent on the issue and yet spends time promoting the fear mongering of US and European politicians and media. Now, before y'all go off on a "you're a bot" tangent, allow me to tell you that I'm a Dane (like APN) and a registered socialist.
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In my interpretation of your excellent video, it's still a genocide in Gaza: Points 1-3 are satisfied and genocidal intent is on the record for many Israeli officials including Netanyahus "Amalek" speech where (paraphrased) "Yahwe orders every man, woman, child and domesticated animal destroyed". It's not even a dog whistle. Then there's the underlying sinister ideology of Zionism that seeks to control the entirety of Gaza and the West Bank (along with Lebanon and Jordan...), proven by the unabated settlement project and Netanyahus "New Middle East" map from September with no Palestinian borders. This is largely a semantic argument though, as no Israeli ever have nor will be subjected to a criminal court case in the Hague.
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Ærgerligt han ikke også kan hjælpe med forsvarets indkøb.
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