Comments by "Emanon" (@Emanon...) on "VisualPolitik EN" channel.

  1. Russia never had a chance in the Baltic after the inclusion of the Baltic nations and Poland. Not to mention the Oresund gap, Kattegat and the North Sea all controlled by NATO members. Sweden and Finland joining NATO is simply a "win more" situation.
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  2. I think more and more that "Z" is the grade for the performance of the Russian army.
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  3. It's a double edged sword, really. The "global policing" of the US has brought immense wealth and prosperity to nations across the world because it provided a stable global market (by patrolling the seas), opening up free trade (sometimes forcefully), and the backbone of the financial system with US reserve currency and financial systems. The cost of globalization has been equally detrimental and immense to many local communities (especially in former manufacturing nations like the US) and having a single hegemon effectively in control of global financial reserves might make regional powers very anxious, as we've seen with the sanctions on Russia currently. BRICS along with other nations would probably seek to counterbalance the global banking system run by the US. Many of the same countries will probably also seek to divest from US reserve and go back to tiered multilateral currencies for trade. I personally don't believe that the US will continue to put its military and economic weight behind a system that the US is effectively insulated from and at this point benefits US rivals more than the US itself.
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  4. To quote Presiden Dugan from Red Alert II: "We're laughing at you, Red!"
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  5. It really isn't about the sanctions or the economy the next few years. The real disaster is the diminishing demography and the exodus of the young, fertile and educated that are emigrating in droves. The Russians from the diaspora that wanted to return have already done so. We're talking generations before the Russian economy can reach a point of stability and equitable growth again, if they can even break the vicious cycle at that point. (Nothing is for sure, obviously, as we don't know what technologies, geopolitical developments or disasters that can occur that will flip the scenario...)
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  6. So the problem isn't financing and propping up brutal dictators. It's buying from the ones we happen to dislike at this point in history. Got it.
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  7. China's GDP is however artificially inflated due to massive public spending projects that won't be utilised or won't promote further growth in GDP. To put it simply: If I borrow my entire salary's worth every year and hire a dude to dig a hole, because holes are estimated to increase in value, I've effectively doubled "my GDP". The dude will spends his money elsewhere and add to the economy, but the result is a crushing debt with marginal real increase in productivity and valued added to the rest of society. Housing in China is the hole.
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  8. So far, I haven't been dissuaded of the notion that the US operates on a similar level - except for corporations having a complete hold over the politicians. "The tail wagging the dog" if you will, when it comes to defense, energy, health, education, infrastructure etc.
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  9. Sure, that sounds great. And how will you pay for it, genius?
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  10. No it won't. Because of female infanticide during the one child policy, there's a huge "surplus" of one child policy men. Sure, any losses of fertile adults will hurt China, but they can technically afford to lose a few million men without it statistically causing anything but a fuss...
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  11. Israelis protesting against this while ignoring the plight of Palestinians reminds me of the US civil war and Southerners crying about "Union Tyranny" because they wouldn't let them keep their slaves.
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  12. What's the fundamental reason for Palestinian "terrorism"? You all know the reason. Yet instead of seeking an equitable peace, Israel has repeatedly chosen the same path as the US in dealing with the natives. Expel, stall, negotiate, renege, repeat.
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  13. Israel would have been proud of your rationalisation using everything from foreign agents, to greed, to them not having any rights at all. Ask yourselves why indigenous peoples might feel this way and go to the extreme to demand autonomy or independence? Now ask yourself if Argentina and Chile have done anything resembling justice towards any indigenous peoples? I think you have your answer...
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  14. >starts by showing a burning trash can on a clean and empty street< And they say that media conflate, confound and sensationalize reporting for a few more views...
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  15. Irony: The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth fell because of vulnerability to foreign meddling due to "Liberum veto" in the Polish Parliament. The EU will now likely fall because of vulnerability to foreign meddling because of Polish veto against any meaningful EU reform.
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  16. If that means no reality shows and no social media, I might invest in a Dascha on the Black Sea not too many years from now ;)
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  17. Talking about Russian expansionism in 1853, meanwhile Britain controlled a quarter of he globe at the same time... Just adding a bit of context.
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  18. In what world do you deem the EU "leftist"? Is it compared to your GOP, because then I believe the correct term is "not insane"...
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  19. The next twenty years will be the litmus test for many nations facing demographic challenges (Japan, Korea, Italy, Spain and in a different context, China). The economic forecasts, however, do not entirely anticipate loss of jobs to automation in services and the sheer amount of "bullshit jobs" that we can easily do without. Yes, reforms in social services would be prudent and unpopular and it would massively effect GDP growth, but even that is an increasingly contentious metric for economic performance. In the end it may turn out to be a boon to have a smaller labor force in an increasingly automated job market...
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  20. I'll support you because it's the right thing to do. But I have to admit that there is a tænker load of hypocrisy in Ukraine when you so avidly support Israel in their illegal occupation, whilst expect everyone to be 100% on board with you because you're in almost the same situation now as the Palestinians have been for 50+ years. Slava Ukraina, Slava Palestine, Slava to all victims of oppression and aggression
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  21. Unfortunately that can't be done until every border issue is resolved. It's a fundamental requirement before joining. And border issues with the Russians probably won't be resolved any time soon, sadly.
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  22. Don't forget that it's the country with the highest HIV cases and alcoholism compared to GDP per capita and they simply stopped publishing their statistics...
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  23. Not likely, but entirely possible. Ukraine however needs to outweigh the costs in human lives, treasure and lost opportunities to rebuild during a prolonged conflict compared to a quicker settled peace without Crimea. The demographics and economic prospects for both countries are exceedingly grim, but especially so for Ukraine as it stands.
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  24. Hahaha... Yeah it's a bit depressing. Just your average Tuesday these days...
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  25. Zero sympathy for who?
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  26. 1,5% in effective defence spending is more than enough to keep every NATO country safe. And yes, many countries would need a one-time spending bill to revamp their equipment. The rest is just social welfare for (predominantly) US weapons manufacturers. What if NATO countries earmarked 0,5% of the GDP for energy research, disaster relief capabilites and/or stock medical research,supplies & equipment instead? Hell, even taxcuts would be more beneficial than throwing more money that isn't needed into an economic black hole...
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  27.  @loveandmoney  I don't place much stock in short term predictions or assessments by economists. Roll a dice or hire a monkey to forecast economic performance. On average it will be only slightly worse off, but you'll save on the "consultant" fee. A theory where you have a limited amount of "unique" outcomes with manyfold variables will never lead to a coherent system of understanding that can be deemed a science. The same applies for medicine when you think about it, but the major difference for medicine is the luxury of times X the same outcome that can be tested under certain conditions and statistically analysed. It neither can or should be an experiment to start messing about with economic levers purely for academical purposes. it leaves us with the study of Economics that has merited a good understanding of the basic mechanisms, but unfortunately is more based in ideological adherence to theories than an actual empirical study of complec factors and their interactions. There are of course exceptions to this. I find it intellectually dishonest that some economists (analysts etc) can speak with such certainty about economic movements and trends, when eg medical doctors will never give patients a 100% guarantee of a certain outcome. Ever. Rant over and out.
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  28. Partial Taiwanese... What, you're missing your legs or something?
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  29. The US spent 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and failed. Give the Ukrainians a break and let them do their job instead of commenting on every single uncorroborated nugget...
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  30. There is no moral rock bottom in American politics. These people are the absolute filth of humanity.
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  31.  @marcinwilk860  You mean like China?
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  32.  @marcinwilk860  Did you ever hear of the numerous nations currently in territorial dispute with China? The drastic military buildup? The broken promises to Hong Kong? Drills and provocations pointed at Taiwan? Until recently (before 2014 or 2008 depending on your view), Russia was just like that
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  33.  @cravingtuna1561  The situation in the Baltics on the ground hasn't changed dramatically with the inclusion of Finland and Sweden. They're still cut off by St Petersburg and Kaliningrad and would facw the brunt of Russian ground forces. So I reiterate: "Win more".
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  34.  @maxglendale7614  The CCP will say the state and their local community. -10 social points if you don't get the groceries for Mr and Mrs Chang...
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  35. Ukraine hasn't taken responsibility for the Kerch bridge bombing, which would indicate that they're not actually responsible. So 1) It's a Russian false flag akin to Nord-Stream? Not likely because of the hit to prestige, the timing (Putin's B-Day) and the strategic cost. 2) A third party? Who benefits? Not Russia. Not Ukraine if it results in further mobilization and escalation. But it would definitely pressure the Russians to either escalate thus expending manpower and treasure, or de-escalate and seek a settled solution because of status quo or Ukrainian progress. So in real-politik terms, a positive result either way for a third actor aiming to quell the conflict or at least make the cost very dear for Russia. Conclusion: Who has the resources, experience and connections? The answer is pretty clear to me: The US (or possibly, but less likely, another powerful actor) is responsible for the attack on the Kerch Bridge. I have seen very few analyses or reports that have even suggested this, which makes me even more suspicious to be honest.
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  36. The truly terrifying thought is that the GOP wants to abandon Trump, not because he's an amoral opportunistic bigot, but because he keeps losing. The hatred towards LGBT, immigrants, Muslims etc will still be there if they believe it gets them the votes. There's no such thing as values or morals in the GOP. Just my 2 cents from across the pond.
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  37. Israel is an illegal occupier that treats people in the same land differently based on ethnicity and/or religion. There are many words that would fit the above. Injustice. Apartheid. Racism. Etc etc etc Antisemitism isn't one of them...
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  38. Recent wars with direct or indirect European involvement: Bosnia, Chechnya, Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Mali and Palestine. Plenty of wars out there. 20-30 conflicts around the globe as we speak.
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  39. Israel itself probably needs a two-state solution: The hateful crazy-curlies on one side, and rational normal people on the other side. Everything great about Israel is despite the religious right, not because of it...
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  40. We're they white? Was it easier in the 50s and 60s to find a well paying job? Was is easier to pay off your student loans back then? Were there less overall economic inequality during that period? Were there less money in politics? 4/5 of the above is a YES. And if your grandparents were black, how'd you think they would have fared during the 50s and 60s. In short: Take a deep breath, get informed and maybe come back to us when you have a more fact based comment.
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  41. Although things are looking better than what most of us expected at the beginning of the invasion, it seems awfully premature to start talking about rebuilding and how it will be done. Plenty of modern nationbuilding efforts that became abject failures. Ukraine has many things going for it to prevent a failed state or division, but it's an act of pure hubris to just assume away...
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  42. Fuck no. The last we need is undercutting our own labor markets in a volatile economy. What you're suggesting is an anti-EU populists' wet dream to gain power and further weaken the idea of the EU - or even secede from the Union. And Ukraine isn't even ready to meet the criteria of submitting an application to the EU, let alone entertain the notion of membership.
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  43. You forgot Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. All shifting towards authoritarianism. It's only a matter of time before the EU has a constitutional crisis. Ruling the world was not as great as we made out to be. Let the US have their turn with running an empire...
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  44.  @marcinwilk860  So I guess we agree then.
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  45. Allies of Taiwan should press them to give up on their ( frankly ridiculous) claims to the Chinese mainland. It's a joke that only provides a legal incentive for continued Chinese belligerence.
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  46. Poland is the model for Ukraine in the future? Oh dear. They're not exactly winning prizes for their illiberal policies, hypocrisy towards the EU and the demolition of civil and legal intitutions in the country the last decade. (Don't worry, it's probably only bad if you're LGBT, female, black, brown, Muslim etc...)
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  47. "...and the truth is that neither the US nor the EU is going to help prop up a dictatorship... That is either incompetently ignorant, blissfully naive or willfully misinformative. If anyone is in doubt, post a reply and I'll provide current examples of the above.
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  48. Whilst I abhor the CCP, Taiwan's ADIZ is a unilateral line drawn on a map that doesn't adhere to international law. In short, it's bullshit. And if mentioned, should carry an informative disclaimer instead of wholesale being legitimised by the media, much like Israel and it's laissez faire policy with regards to international borders and defacto acts of war...
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  49. NATO wasn't seeking to expand its empire. They bombed the shit out of you because you were killing, raping and expelling people from their ancestral homes.
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  50. You're talking way too fast in this video. When it's an edit, you don't breathe and hold any natural pauses. It makes this very uncomfortable to watch and follow, which is a shame.
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